NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $234M
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
NXDT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −12.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.78 to $4.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.40 – $11.60 · fair‑value band $1.78 – $4.98 · the $4.61 price screens above the $2.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) currently trades at $4.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.83, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $78.8M. Revenue declined 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -15.1%. Net debt stands at $301M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.78 (bear case) to $4.98 (bull case); at $4.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -39%, NXDT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($9.33) versus Dividend Discount ($2.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust is an externally advised, publicly traded, diversified real estate investment trust. It focuses on the acquisition, development, and management of opportunistic and value-add investments throughout the United States across multiple sectors where NexPoint and its affiliates have operational expertise.
Full company description
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust is an externally advised, publicly traded, diversified real estate investment trust. It focuses on the acquisition, development, and management of opportunistic and value-add investments throughout the United States across multiple sectors where NexPoint and its affiliates have operational expertise. NXDT is externally advised by NexPoint Real Estate Advisors X, L.P. NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust was incorporated in June 1st, 2006, and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust reported revenue of $92.0M in FY2025 versus $257M in FY2021, a compound −22.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$125M in FY2025.
NXDT screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman Group GMG | A$29.11 | A$7.37 | -75% |
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $26.73 | $41.74 | +56% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $76.69 | $35.59 | -54% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$11.46 | -48% |
| Fibra Uno FUNO11 | 31.10 MXN | 63.56 MXN | +104% |
| COV COV | €52.55 | €62.39 | +19% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.89 | A$3.49 | -29% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.70 | A$0.5700 | -66% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.85 MYR | 6.91 MYR | -22% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$17.65 | C$17.89 | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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