Next10, Inc (NXTN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $265M
Next10, Inc
NXTN · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated today
Share price −20.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0070 – $12.00 · fair‑value band $0.1700 – $0.2800 · the $1.83 price screens above the $0.2200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Next10, Inc (NXTN) currently trades at $1.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2200, implying the stock looks roughly 88.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $205K. Revenue declined 75.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $1.7M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1700 (bear case) to $0.2800 (bull case); at $1.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 352% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -88%, NXTN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($2.13) versus Asset-Based ($0.1467). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Next10, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of security systems for the cargo transportation industry primarily in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Next10, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of security systems for the cargo transportation industry primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers "Bulldog Online Security Systems' (BOSS), which is designed to prevent cargo theft from cargo containers, tractor-trailers, cargo vans, tanker trucks, storage year containers, and other cargo transportation and storage equipment. Its products alert onsite security personnel in the event of theft or tampering; alert the driver in the event someone attempts to access the cargo; and monitors multiple roll-up and sliding doors, prevents unauthorized entry and intrusion, and alert the driver through a mobile receiver a thief attempt to enter, move, or remove items from the delivery vehicle. The company's BOSS line of products primarily include The Yard BOSS, The Road BOSS, The Tanker BOSS, Bulldogs BOSS Tracker, and Mini BOSS System. It offers its products to retail, pharmaceutical, high technology, and government markets. The company was formerly known as Bulldog Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to Next10, Inc. on March 25, 2011. Next10, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Placentia, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Next10, Inc reported revenue of $19.7M in FY2024 versus $10.0M in FY2020, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$291K in FY2024.
NXTN screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 49 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $209.44 | $102.54 | -51% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $208.94 | $56.52 | -73% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $145.94 | $110.79 | -24% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $71.31 | $8.58 | -88% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $364.66 | $127.94 | -65% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | -65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $22.71 | $3.48 | -85% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $140.63 | $45.89 | -67% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | -78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥5.25 | ¥1.20 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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