New Zealand Energy Corp (NZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$24.9M
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +9.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 91% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.0595). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0400 – C$1.67 · fair‑value band C$0.0340 – C$0.0595 · the C$0.4700 price screens above the C$0.0425 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
New Zealand Energy Corp (NZ) currently trades at C$0.4700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0425, implying the stock looks roughly 91.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at C$1.2M. Revenue grew 51.3% year over year. Net debt stands at C$1.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.0340 (bear case) to C$0.0595 (bull case); at C$0.4700, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -91%, NZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New Zealand Energy Corp., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, production, development, and appraisal of oil and natural gas in New Zealand. It holds interests in three petroleum mining licenses, one petroleum mining permit, and one petroleum exploration permit.
Full company description
New Zealand Energy Corp., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, production, development, and appraisal of oil and natural gas in New Zealand. It holds interests in three petroleum mining licenses, one petroleum mining permit, and one petroleum exploration permit. The company has interests in TWN Petroleum Mining Licenses comprising Waihapa/Ngaere, and Tariki; Copper Moki petroleum mining permit; and Eltham Petroleum exploration permit. It also operates midstream assets. New Zealand Energy Corp. was founded in 2010 and is based in New Plymouth, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
New Zealand Energy Corp reported revenue of C$1.2M in FY2024 versus C$5.7M in FY2020, a compound −32.6%/yr. Reported net income was −C$8.1M in FY2024.
NZ screens 91% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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