NZX Limited (NZSTF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $281M
NZX Limited
NZSTF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 27, 2026, revised from $0.4800 to $0.4900 (+2.1%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +5.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2423 – $0.9839 · fair‑value band $0.3700 – $0.6100 · the $0.8740 price screens above the $0.4900 fair value. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
NZX Limited (NZSTF) currently trades at $0.8740, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4900, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NZX Limited generated revenue of $129M at a net margin of 16.7%. Revenue grew 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.8%. Net debt stands at $29.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.3700 (bear case) to $0.6100 (bull case); at $0.8740, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -44%, NZSTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($1.24) versus Asset-Based ($0.2500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NZX Limited operates a stock exchange in New Zealand. The company operates through five segments: Capital Markets Origination, Secondary Markets, Information Services, Funds Management, and Wealth Technologies. The Capital Markets Origination segment provides issuer services for current and prospective customers.
Full company description
NZX Limited operates a stock exchange in New Zealand. The company operates through five segments: Capital Markets Origination, Secondary Markets, Information Services, Funds Management, and Wealth Technologies. The Capital Markets Origination segment provides issuer services for current and prospective customers. The Secondary Markets segment provides trading and post-trade services for securities and derivatives markets, as well as provides central securities depository; and acts as a market operator for Fonterra Co-Operative Group, the Electricity Authority, and the Ministry for the Environment. The Information Services segment provides information services for the securities and derivatives markets, and analytics for the dairy sector. The Funds Management segment manages funds, such as KiwiSaver, superannuation, managed funds, and exchange traded funds. The Wealth Technologies segment provides funds administration and custodian services. The company was formerly known as New Zealand Exchange Limited and changed its name to NZX Limited in July 2008. NZX Limited was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NZX Limited reported revenue of $129M in FY2025 versus $87.9M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $21.5M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NZSTF screens 44% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $139.65 | $75.95 | -46% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €260.90 | €142.42 | -45% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $160.49 | $57.05 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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