OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of OceanaGold Corporation C$27.82, price C$39.44, upside -29.5%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.16 – C$57.91 · fair‑value band C$16.16 – C$45.25 · the C$39.44 price screens above the C$27.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) currently trades at C$39.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$27.82, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$63.33 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$39.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$6.78, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$16.16 (bear) to C$45.25 (bull), the price of C$39.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
OceanaGold Corporation reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $745M in FY2021, a compound +26.8%/yr. Reported net income was $640M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$9.2B (≈ $6.5B) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 2.81 · EPS (TTM) C$4.66 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 33.2% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −29%, OGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$16.16Fair Value C$27.82Bull C$45.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$3.29 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+95.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+95.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 39%
2025 sits 394% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.5% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Return on assets22% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)34% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth99% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.90× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF11.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.09× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OceanaGold Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OGC
Frequently asked questions
Is OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$27.82 versus a price of C$39.44, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OGC?
Our model-based fair value for OceanaGold Corporation is C$27.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$39.44.
What is the quality score of OGC?
OceanaGold Corporation has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$27.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$16.16, optimistic scenario C$45.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OceanaGold Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$27.82, about −29% upside versus a price of C$39.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$16.16, optimistic scenario C$45.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
OceanaGold Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does OceanaGold Corporation pay a dividend?
OceanaGold Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OceanaGold Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OGC use?
Our models discount OceanaGold Corporation at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.51, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OceanaGold Corporation that is +0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OceanaGold Corporation grew +31.0 % a year. The price currently implies +0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OceanaGold Corporation (+0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.44 %: that much free cash flow OceanaGold Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OceanaGold Corporation it is C$27.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$39.44. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OceanaGold Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OGC trades above its calculated fair value: price C$39.44, fair value C$27.82, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OGC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$39.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$27.82). For OceanaGold Corporation the two are C$11.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OceanaGold Corporation worth?
The market values OceanaGold Corporation at about C$9.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$39.44; our models calculate a fair value of C$27.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OGC?
Our models span a range for OceanaGold Corporation: cautious scenario C$16.16, base C$27.82, optimistic C$45.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$39.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OGC?
OceanaGold Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$27.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 2.9, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of OGC?
The PEG ratio of OceanaGold Corporation is 0.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
Balance-sheet figures for OceanaGold Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 34.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OGC from its 52-week high?
OceanaGold Corporation trades at C$39.44, about 32% below its 52-week high of C$57.91 and 40% above the low of C$28.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$27.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OceanaGold Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OceanaGold Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$39.44, calculated fair value C$27.82 (−29%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OGC calculated?
We run OceanaGold Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$27.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. OceanaGold Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$39.44. Our model-based fair value is C$27.82, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OceanaGold Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (C$16.16 to C$45.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) come from?
Earnings per share at OceanaGold Corporation grew +7.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of OceanaGold Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The market capitalisation of OceanaGold Corporation is C$9.2B (≈ $6.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OceanaGold Corporation is 2.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
Earnings per share at OceanaGold Corporation are C$4.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The dividend yield of OceanaGold Corporation is 0.4% (payout 3.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The net margin of OceanaGold Corporation is 33.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OceanaGold Corporation is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OceanaGold Corporation is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
The operating margin of OceanaGold Corporation is 50.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
Revenue at OceanaGold Corporation is growing +98.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OceanaGold Corporation (OGC)?
Earnings per share at OceanaGold Corporation are growing +141% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) hold?
OceanaGold Corporation holds more cash than debt, $395M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026