OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$7.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from C$46.89 to C$16.89 (−64.0%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +14.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$29.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (C$11.66 to C$29.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.16 – C$57.91 · fair‑value band C$11.66 – C$29.37 · the C$39.14 price screens above the C$16.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) currently trades at C$39.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$16.89, implying the stock looks roughly 56.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, OceanaGold Corporation generated revenue of C$2.2B at a net margin of 33.7%. Revenue grew 98.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$395M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$11.66 (bear case) to C$29.37 (bull case); at C$39.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -57%, OGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$62.73) versus Dividend Discount (C$1.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
OceanaGold Corporation reported revenue of C$1.9B in FY2025 versus C$745M in FY2021, a compound +26.8%/yr. Reported net income was C$640M in FY2025.
OGC screens 57% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- OceanaGold Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- OceanaGold Announces Renewal of Share Buyback
- OceanaGold Provides Notice of Second Quarter 2026 Results and Conference Call
- OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Weakness
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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