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Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Offerpad Solutions Inc $2.56, price $3.41, upside -24.9%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US67623L5057

OS Offerpad Solutions Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Offerpad Solutions Inc

OPAD · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $2.56 · Overvalued (−25%)
!Quality 38/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.9% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$2,996 $3.41 Fair Value $2.56 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.41 – $2,996 · fair‑value band $2.02 – $3.38 · the $3.41 price screens above the $2.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Offerpad Solutions Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a technology-enabled real estate solutions platform in the United States. It operates through Cash Offer, Renovate, and Other segments.

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Offerpad Solutions Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a technology-enabled real estate solutions platform in the United States. It operates through Cash Offer, Renovate, and Other segments. The company offers Cash Offer, which allows customers to access the company's website or mobile application to receive a cash offer range for their home; and renovation services to other businesses. It also provides a Cash Offer Marketplace, including Direct+ partners, which provide buyers with an opportunity to purchase homes from homeowners; and brokerage services, which allow sellers to select from different agent-led pathways to sell their home. In addition, the company offers HomePro, which pairs local agents with its platform, data, and customer flow to deliver guided and in-person services; and the Agent Partnership Program, which allows third-party agents to present a cash offer to customers. Further, it provides ancillary products and services comprising energy efficiency solutions, smart home technology, insurance, and home warranty services, as well as mortgage, title insurance, and escrow services. Offerpad Solutions Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

Stock analysis

Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD) currently trades at $3.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.56, implying the stock looks roughly 33.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.02 (bear) to $3.38 (bull), the price of $3.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Offerpad Solutions Inc reported revenue of $568M in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −27.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$46.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $16.4M · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $−9.75 · Net margin −8.2% · Return on equity −129% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.5% · Operating margin −10.6% · Revenue (TTM) $405M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 92% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −25%, OPAD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.02 Fair Value $2.56 Bull $3.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $143.95 $194.60 $285.50 79
Growth DCF $149.81 $198.61 $279.44 76
5Y Revenue Exit $128.96 $182.59 $260.47 70
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $143.95 $194.60 $285.50 79
5Y Revenue Exit $128.96 $182.59 $260.47 70
10Y Revenue Exit $130.91 $170.72 $213.08 66
Multiples
EV/Revenue $129.26 $182.31 $235.35 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.95 $5.30 $7.91 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $149.81 $198.61 $279.44 76
Rev-Margin DCF $128.96 $185.94 $256.12 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 3

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−38.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−47.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.3% (2020) → −5.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

OPAD screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 546 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −11% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −52% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.43× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 236,000 VND 25,731 VND −89%
CBRE Group CBRE $141.05 $89.43 −37%
Vonovia SE VNA €17.37 €36.67 +111%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €25.33 €23.78 −6%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$42.78 HK$17.18 −60%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $335.36 $530.17 +58%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.40 HK$13.50 −45%
CoStar Group CSGP $28.77 $6.17 −79%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$37.44 HK$56.43 +51%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.62 SGD 0.5000 SGD −81%

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$2.56 −33%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Offerpad Solutions Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OPAD

Frequently asked questions

Is Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.56 versus a price of $3.41, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OPAD?
Our model-based fair value for Offerpad Solutions Inc is $2.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.41.
What is the quality score of OPAD?
Offerpad Solutions Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.02, optimistic scenario $3.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Offerpad Solutions Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.56, about −25% upside versus a price of $3.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.02, optimistic scenario $3.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
Offerpad Solutions Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $405M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Offerpad Solutions Inc it is $2.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.41. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Offerpad Solutions Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OPAD trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.41, fair value $2.56, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OPAD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.56). For Offerpad Solutions Inc the two are $0.8490 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Offerpad Solutions Inc worth?
The market values Offerpad Solutions Inc at about $16.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.41; our models calculate a fair value of $2.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OPAD?
Our models span a range for Offerpad Solutions Inc: cautious scenario $2.02, base $2.56, optimistic $3.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Offerpad Solutions Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −128.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OPAD from its 52-week high?
Offerpad Solutions Inc trades at $3.41, about 92% below its 52-week high of $45.10 and at the low of $3.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Offerpad Solutions Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Offerpad Solutions Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.41, calculated fair value $2.56 (−25%), Quality Score 38/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OPAD calculated?
We run Offerpad Solutions Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Offerpad Solutions Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.41. Our model-based fair value is $2.56, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Offerpad Solutions Inc right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Offerpad Solutions Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
The market capitalisation of Offerpad Solutions Inc is $16.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Offerpad Solutions Inc is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
Earnings per share at Offerpad Solutions Inc are $−9.75. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
The net margin of Offerpad Solutions Inc is −8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Offerpad Solutions Inc is −129% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Offerpad Solutions Inc is −15.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
The operating margin of Offerpad Solutions Inc is −10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD)?
Revenue at Offerpad Solutions Inc is growing −51.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −47.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD) generate?
The free cash flow of Offerpad Solutions Inc is $65.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Offerpad Solutions Inc (OPAD) carry?
The net debt of Offerpad Solutions Inc is $67.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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