OrangePL (OPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of OrangePL PLN 10.55, price PLN 13.12, upside -19.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.97 PLN – 16.38 PLN · fair‑value band 7.47 PLN – 15.88 PLN · the 13.12 PLN price screens above the 10.55 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services for individuals, small and large businesses, and corporations in Poland.
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Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services for individuals, small and large businesses, and corporations in Poland. The company offers mobile and fixed telecommunications services, including calls, messaging, content, and access to the Internet and TV; and information technology and integration services, leased lines, and other value-added telecommunication services. It also engages in the sale of telecommunications equipment; provision of data transmission services; and construction of telecommunications infrastructure. In addition, the company is involved in the local operation of fibre infrastructure; provision of training, insurance agency, and charity foundation services; management of employee pension funds; and point of sale rental business. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Warsaw, Poland. Orange Polska S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Orange S.A.
Stock analysis
OrangePL (OPL) currently trades at 13.12 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.55 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 12.77 PLN per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the 13.12 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 4.83 PLN, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 7.47 PLN (bear) to 15.88 PLN (bull), the price of 13.12 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
OrangePL reported revenue of 13.1B PLN in FY2025 versus 11.9B PLN in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 762M PLN in FY2025, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.1B PLN (≈ $5.0B) · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) 0.6500 PLN · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −20%, OPL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 7.47 PLNFair Value 10.55 PLNBull 15.88 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0293 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+57.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+53.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.53% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.7% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OrangePL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OPL
Frequently asked questions
Is OrangePL (OPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.55 PLN versus a price of 13.12 PLN, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OPL?
Our model-based fair value for OrangePL is 10.55 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.12 PLN.
What is the quality score of OPL?
OrangePL has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OrangePL (OPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.55 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.47 PLN, optimistic scenario 15.88 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OrangePL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.55 PLN, about −20% upside versus a price of 13.12 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.47 PLN, optimistic scenario 15.88 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OrangePL (OPL)?
OrangePL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does OrangePL pay a dividend?
OrangePL currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into OrangePL (OPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OrangePL would have to grow free cash flow by +16.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OPL use?
Our models discount OrangePL at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OrangePL that is +16.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OrangePL (OPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OrangePL grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +16.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OrangePL (OPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OrangePL (+16.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OrangePL (OPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.72 %: that much free cash flow OrangePL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OrangePL (OPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OrangePL it is 10.55 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 13.12 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OrangePL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OPL trades above its calculated fair value: price 13.12 PLN, fair value 10.55 PLN, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.12 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.55 PLN). For OrangePL the two are 2.57 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OrangePL worth?
The market values OrangePL at about 19.1B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 13.12 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 10.55 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OPL?
Our models span a range for OrangePL: cautious scenario 7.47 PLN, base 10.55 PLN, optimistic 15.88 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 13.12 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OPL?
OrangePL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10.55 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of OPL?
The PEG ratio of OrangePL is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of OrangePL (OPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for OrangePL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OPL from its 52-week high?
OrangePL trades at 13.12 PLN, about 20% below its 52-week high of 16.38 PLN and 57% above the low of 8.34 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.55 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OrangePL?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OrangePL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 13.12 PLN, calculated fair value 10.55 PLN (−20%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OPL calculated?
We run OrangePL through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.55 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. OrangePL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OrangePL (OPL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 13.12 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 10.55 PLN, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OrangePL right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (7.47 PLN to 15.88 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of OrangePL (OPL) come from?
Earnings per share at OrangePL grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +5.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of OrangePL
How large is the market capitalisation of OrangePL (OPL)?
The market capitalisation of OrangePL is 19.1B PLN (≈ $5.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OrangePL (OPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OrangePL is 1.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OrangePL (OPL)?
Earnings per share at OrangePL are 0.6500 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of OrangePL (OPL)?
The dividend yield of OrangePL is 4.6% (payout 93.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of OrangePL (OPL)?
The net margin of OrangePL is 5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OrangePL (OPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OrangePL is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OrangePL (OPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OrangePL is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OrangePL (OPL)?
The operating margin of OrangePL is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OrangePL (OPL)?
Revenue at OrangePL is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OrangePL (OPL)?
Earnings per share at OrangePL are growing +54.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does OrangePL (OPL) carry?
The net debt of OrangePL is 3.7B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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