Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orion Digital Corp. stock $1.85, price $1.09, upside +70.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6200 – $20.73 · fair‑value band $1.28 – $2.58 · the $1.09 price screens below the $1.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Orion Digital Corp., a financial technology company, operates digital platforms for wealth and payments in Canada and Europe.
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The company offers Intelligent Investing, a wealth platform which provides long-term investing solutions; and issuer processing, program management, and regulated payment orchestration services. It also engages in the consumer lending business.
The company was formerly known as Mogo Inc. and changed its name to Orion Digital Corp. in December 2025. Orion Digital Corp. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) currently trades at $1.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.85, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $1.28 (bear) to $2.58 (bull), the price of $1.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orion Digital Corp. reported revenue of C$68.1M in FY2025 versus C$57.5M in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$8.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $25.9M Micro · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5100 · Net margin −12.5% · Return on equity −22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.7% · Revenue (TTM) C$41.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 70%, ORIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.28Fair Value $1.85Bull$2.58
Price $1.09 · Upside +70.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF$6.71$9.72$13.5079
Rev-Margin DCF$4.16$6.13$8.5173
NCAV (Graham)$0.0100$0.0200$0.020055
All 3 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.0100$0.0200$0.020055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$6.71$9.72$13.5079
Rev-Margin DCF$4.16$6.13$8.5173
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.3% (2020) → −5.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+70.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−40.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−8.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orion Digital Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORIO
Frequently asked questions
Is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.85 versus a price of $1.09, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORIO?
Our model-based fair value for Orion Digital Corp. is $1.85 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.09.
What is the quality score of ORIO?
Orion Digital Corp. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.85 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.28, optimistic scenario $2.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orion Digital Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.85, about +70% upside versus a price of $1.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.28, optimistic scenario $2.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Orion Digital Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$41.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orion Digital Corp. it is $1.85 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $1.09. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 2 families (Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Orion Digital Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ORIO trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.09, fair value $1.85, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.85). For Orion Digital Corp. the two are $0.7630 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orion Digital Corp. worth?
The market values Orion Digital Corp. at about $25.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $1.09; our models calculate a fair value of $1.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORIO?
Our models span a range for Orion Digital Corp.: cautious scenario $1.28, base $1.85, optimistic $2.58 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $1.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orion Digital Corp. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −22.7%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORIO from its 52-week high?
Orion Digital Corp. trades at $1.09, about 23% below its 52-week high of $1.42 and 76% above the low of $0.6200 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orion Digital Corp.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orion Digital Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $1.09, calculated fair value $1.85 (+70%), Quality Score 57/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORIO calculated?
We run Orion Digital Corp. through 3 models from 2 families: Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.85 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Orion Digital Corp. currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.09. Our model-based fair value is $1.85, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orion Digital Corp. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($1.28 to $2.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Orion Digital Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The market capitalisation of Orion Digital Corp. is $25.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orion Digital Corp. is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Earnings per share at Orion Digital Corp. are $−0.5100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The net margin of Orion Digital Corp. is −12.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orion Digital Corp. is −22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orion Digital Corp. is −6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The operating margin of Orion Digital Corp. is −8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Revenue at Orion Digital Corp. is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) generate?
The free cash flow of Orion Digital Corp. is C$19.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) carry?
The net debt of Orion Digital Corp. is C$66.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026