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Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orion Digital Corp. $1.23, price $1.03, upside +19.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA68627G1046

OD Orion Digital Corp. logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Orion Digital Corp.

ORIO · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $1.23 · Undervalued (+20%)
!Quality 64/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$23.88 $0.6200 Fair Value $1.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.6200 – $23.88 · fair‑value band $0.8495 – $1.71 · the $1.03 price screens below the $1.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Orion Digital Corp., a financial technology company, operates digital platforms for wealth and payments in Canada and Europe. The company offers Intelligent Investing, a wealth platform which provides long-term investing solutions; and issuer processing, program management, and regulated payment orchestration services.

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Orion Digital Corp., a financial technology company, operates digital platforms for wealth and payments in Canada and Europe. The company offers Intelligent Investing, a wealth platform which provides long-term investing solutions; and issuer processing, program management, and regulated payment orchestration services. It also engages in the consumer lending business. The company was formerly known as Mogo Inc. and changed its name to Orion Digital Corp. in December 2025. Orion Digital Corp. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) currently trades at $1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.23, implying the stock looks roughly 16.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $9.47 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $1.03 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.04, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.8495 (bear) to $1.71 (bull), the price of $1.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Orion Digital Corp. reported revenue of C$68.1M in FY2025 versus C$57.5M in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$8.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $21.4M · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin −12.5% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.1% · Operating margin −29.9% · Revenue (TTM) C$40.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 20%, ORIO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8495 Fair Value $1.23 Bull $1.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $12.20 $19.50 $30.44 77
Rev-Margin DCF $6.39 $9.47 $13.20 73
NCAV (Graham) $1.53 $2.04 $3.05 54
All 3 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.53 $2.04 $3.05 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $12.20 $19.50 $30.44 77
Rev-Margin DCF $6.39 $9.47 $13.20 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.3% (2020) → −5.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −30% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.44× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.30× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)60 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 49
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

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CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $250.06 $35.15 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orion Digital Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORIO

Frequently asked questions

Is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.23 versus a price of $1.03, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORIO?
Our model-based fair value for Orion Digital Corp. is $1.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.03.
What is the quality score of ORIO?
Orion Digital Corp. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8495, optimistic scenario $1.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orion Digital Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.23, about +20% upside versus a price of $1.03 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.8495, optimistic scenario $1.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Orion Digital Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$40.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orion Digital Corp. it is $1.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.03. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orion Digital Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ORIO trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.03, fair value $1.23, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.23). For Orion Digital Corp. the two are $0.2030 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orion Digital Corp. worth?
The market values Orion Digital Corp. at about $21.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.03; our models calculate a fair value of $1.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORIO?
Our models span a range for Orion Digital Corp.: cautious scenario $0.8495, base $1.23, optimistic $1.71 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orion Digital Corp. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −3.7%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORIO from its 52-week high?
Orion Digital Corp. trades at $1.03, about 49% below its 52-week high of $2.02 and 66% above the low of $0.6200 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orion Digital Corp.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orion Digital Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.03, calculated fair value $1.23 (+20%), Quality Score 64/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORIO calculated?
We run Orion Digital Corp. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orion Digital Corp. currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.03. Our model-based fair value is $1.23, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orion Digital Corp. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($0.8495 to $1.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Orion Digital Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The market capitalisation of Orion Digital Corp. is $21.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orion Digital Corp. is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Earnings per share at Orion Digital Corp. are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The net margin of Orion Digital Corp. is −12.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orion Digital Corp. is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orion Digital Corp. is −6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
The operating margin of Orion Digital Corp. is −29.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)?
Revenue at Orion Digital Corp. is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) generate?
The free cash flow of Orion Digital Corp. is C$19.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) carry?
The net debt of Orion Digital Corp. is C$66.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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