Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orion Group Holdings Inc $1.10, price $9.00, upside -87.8%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.10 · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 42/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +3.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat28/100
!Insider activity44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.18 – $17.14 · fair‑value band $0.8245 – $1.37 · the $9.00 price screens above the $1.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Orion Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty construction company for the infrastructure, industrial, and building sectors in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. It operates through two segments, Marine and Concrete.
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Orion Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty construction company for the infrastructure, industrial, and building sectors in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. It operates through two segments, Marine and Concrete. The company engages in the building, rehabilitation, and maintenance of a range of marine transportation facilities, including terminals, cruise ship berths, private terminals, U.S. Navy facilities, marinas, and other port facilities; installation of foundations, mooring structures, and related components; provision of ongoing inspection, maintenance, and emergency repair services, as well as logistics services for directional drilling; installation and removal of underwater pipelines and transmission infrastructure, such as industrial intakes and outfalls, river crossing, and tie-ins; construction, repair, and maintenance of overwater bridges, causeways, and fendering systems; and construction of various environmental protection structures, including levees, erosion control systems, concrete mats, wetlands restoration features, and geotube installations for island and shoreline creation. It also provides maintenance and capital dredging services for ports, waterways, and channels. In addition, the company offers specialty services, such as design, salvage, demolition, surveying, towing, commercial diving, underwater inspection, excavation, and repair services. Further, it provides concrete construction services, including concrete placement and finishing, site preparation, layout, forming, and rebar placement services for data centers; industrial, warehouse, and distribution facilities; commercial, multi-family, institutional, and mixed-use structures; and retail, hospital, and recreational facilities. The company was formerly known as Orion Marine Group, Inc. and changed its name to Orion Group Holdings, Inc. in May 2016. Orion Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) currently trades at $9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.10, implying the stock looks roughly 720.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.63 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $9.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.5500, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.8245 (bear) to $1.37 (bull), the price of $9.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Orion Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of $852M in FY2025 versus $601M in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $643M · P/E ratio 40.9 · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.2200 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −88%, ORN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.5500 to $10.83). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.8245Fair Value $1.10Bull $1.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1609 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−36.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−38% vs −13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 1%
Compare Orion Group Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 844 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)40.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.04× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.73× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.62× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orion Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORN
Frequently asked questions
Is Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.10 versus a price of $9.00, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORN?
Our model-based fair value for Orion Group Holdings Inc is $1.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.00.
What is the quality score of ORN?
Orion Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8245, optimistic scenario $1.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orion Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.10, about −88% upside versus a price of $9.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8245, optimistic scenario $1.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Orion Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $880M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orion Group Holdings Inc it is $1.10 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orion Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ORN trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.00, fair value $1.10, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.10). For Orion Group Holdings Inc the two are $7.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orion Group Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Orion Group Holdings Inc at about $643M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.00; our models calculate a fair value of $1.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORN?
Our models span a range for Orion Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.8245, base $1.10, optimistic $1.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORN?
Orion Group Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 4.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 18.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ORN?
The PEG ratio of Orion Group Holdings Inc is 0.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orion Group Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORN from its 52-week high?
Orion Group Holdings Inc trades at $9.00, about 47% below its 52-week high of $17.14 and 10% above the low of $8.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orion Group Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orion Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.00, calculated fair value $1.10 (−88%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORN calculated?
We run Orion Group Holdings Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orion Group Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.00. Our model-based fair value is $1.10, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orion Group Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Orion Group Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
The market capitalisation of Orion Group Holdings Inc is $643M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orion Group Holdings Inc is 0.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Earnings per share at Orion Group Holdings Inc are $0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
The net margin of Orion Group Holdings Inc is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orion Group Holdings Inc is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orion Group Holdings Inc is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
The operating margin of Orion Group Holdings Inc is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Revenue at Orion Group Holdings Inc is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN)?
Earnings per share at Orion Group Holdings Inc are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) generate?
The free cash flow of Orion Group Holdings Inc is −$10.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) carry?
The net debt of Orion Group Holdings Inc is $42.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026