Orion Group (ORN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $643M
Orion Group
ORN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −27.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.18 – $17.14 · fair‑value band $0.8245 – $1.37 · the $10.31 price screens above the $1.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Orion Group (ORN) currently trades at $10.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.10, implying the stock looks roughly 89.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orion Group generated revenue of $880M at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at $42.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.8245 (bear case) to $1.37 (bull case); at $10.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -89%, ORN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($2.63) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2700). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty construction company for the infrastructure, industrial, and building sectors in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. It operates through two segments, Marine and Concrete.
Full company description
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty construction company for the infrastructure, industrial, and building sectors in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. It operates through two segments, Marine and Concrete. The company engages in the building, rehabilitation, and maintenance of a range of marine transportation facilities, including terminals, cruise ship berths, private terminals, U.S. Navy facilities, marinas, and other port facilities; installation of foundations, mooring structures, and related components; provision of ongoing inspection, maintenance, and emergency repair services, as well as logistics services for directional drilling; installation and removal of underwater pipelines and transmission infrastructure, such as industrial intakes and outfalls, river crossing, and tie-ins; construction, repair, and maintenance of overwater bridges, causeways, and fendering systems; and construction of various environmental protection structures, including levees, erosion control systems, concrete mats, wetlands restoration features, and geotube installations for island and shoreline creation. It also provides maintenance and capital dredging services for ports, waterways, and channels. In addition, the company offers specialty services, such as design, salvage, demolition, surveying, towing, commercial diving, underwater inspection, excavation, and repair services. Further, it provides concrete construction services, including concrete placement and finishing, site preparation, layout, forming, and rebar placement services for data centers; industrial, warehouse, and distribution facilities; commercial, multi-family, institutional, and mixed-use structures; and retail, hospital, and recreational facilities. The company was formerly known as Orion Marine Group, Inc. and changed its name to Orion Group Holdings, Inc. in May 2016. Orion Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orion Group reported revenue of $852M in FY2025 versus $601M in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5M in FY2025.
ORN screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Orion outlines 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $50M-$54M while citing Marine timing delays
- Orion Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Marine Project Delays, Stock Down
- Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Orion Group Holdings Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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