Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Outokumpu Oyj $0.75, price $2.81, upside -73.3%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7703 – $3.66 · fair‑value band $0.4800 – $1.01 · the $2.81 price screens above the $0.7500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Outokumpu Oyj produces and sells various stainless-steel products in Finland, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, other European countries, North America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through Europe, the Americas, Ferrochrome, and Other operations segments.
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Outokumpu Oyj produces and sells various stainless-steel products in Finland, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, other European countries, North America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through Europe, the Americas, Ferrochrome, and Other operations segments. The company offers cold rolled coils, strips, and sheets; hot rolled coils, strips, and plates; quarto plates; precision strips; and specialized components, such as welded stainless-steel I-beams, H-beams, hollow-section tubes, bent profiles, duprof structural sections, hardened and customized press plates, suction roll shells, and blancs and disks. It also provides stainless steel powder which includes Supra 316L, Dura 17-4PH, Ultra 904L, Therma 253MA, Dura 4116, and Ni-free austenitic stainless-steel powder, ferritic grades as well as tailored product; and nickel-based alloys for environments in the process industry, oil and gas, and electric vehicles. In addition, the company offers cutting, polishing and brushing, welding, machining, plate bending and other services. Further, its products are used in various applications, including commercial kitchens, cooking, food industry, and home appliances; automotive and transportation; building and infrastructure; energy; marine; and heavy industries. Outokumpu Oyj was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
Outokumpu Oyj ADR (OUTKY) currently trades at $2.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7500, 73.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.72 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $2.81 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.05, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4800 (bear) to $1.01 (bull), the price of $2.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Outokumpu Oyj ADR reported revenue of €5.5B in FY2025 versus €7.7B in FY2021, a compound −8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€137M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1600 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin −2.5% · Return on equity −3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −73%, OUTKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4800Fair Value $0.7500Bull $1.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.3/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.5% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.1% (2020) → −2.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+1.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7500 versus a price of $2.81, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OUTKY?
Our model-based fair value for Outokumpu Oyj ADR is $0.7500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.81.
What is the quality score of OUTKY?
Outokumpu Oyj ADR has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4800, optimistic scenario $1.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Outokumpu Oyj ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7500, about −73% upside versus a price of $2.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4800, optimistic scenario $1.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Outokumpu Oyj ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Outokumpu Oyj ADR pay a dividend?
Outokumpu Oyj ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.63% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Outokumpu Oyj ADR it is $0.7500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.81. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Outokumpu Oyj ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OUTKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.81, fair value $0.7500, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OUTKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7500). For Outokumpu Oyj ADR the two are $2.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Outokumpu Oyj ADR worth?
The market values Outokumpu Oyj ADR at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.81; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OUTKY?
Our models span a range for Outokumpu Oyj ADR: cautious scenario $0.4800, base $0.7500, optimistic $1.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Outokumpu Oyj ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.5%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OUTKY from its 52-week high?
Outokumpu Oyj ADR trades at $2.81, about 23% below its 52-week high of $3.66 and 36% above the low of $2.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Outokumpu Oyj ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Outokumpu Oyj ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.81, calculated fair value $0.7500 (−73%), Quality Score 42/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OUTKY calculated?
We run Outokumpu Oyj ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Outokumpu Oyj ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.81. Our model-based fair value is $0.7500, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Outokumpu Oyj ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4800 to $1.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Outokumpu Oyj ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The market capitalisation of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is 0.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Earnings per share at Outokumpu Oyj ADR are $−0.1600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The dividend yield of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The net margin of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is −2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
The operating margin of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Revenue at Outokumpu Oyj ADR is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY)?
Earnings per share at Outokumpu Oyj ADR are growing −75.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) generate?
The free cash flow of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is −€65.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Outokumpu Oyj (OUTKY) carry?
The net debt of Outokumpu Oyj ADR is €265M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026