Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi TRY 1.69, price TRY 13.78, upside -87.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Özerden Ambalaj Sanayi A.S. produces and sells packaging and insulation products worldwide.
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Özerden Ambalaj Sanayi A.S. produces and sells packaging and insulation products worldwide. The company offers thermal insulation packaging products, such as thermo airsafe, thermo mailer, thermo bag, thermo pharma, thermo boxliner, thermo cover, and thermo liner products; in-the-box protection products under the Papersafe, Airsafe, Ranpak, Airbed, and Chocolate Pad names; and protective packaging products comprising poly bubble mailers, PE foam rolls and pouches and sheets, and supplementary products, as well as packaging products under the Netkraft and Balondüla names. It also provides radiant barrier and breathable membranes, and vapour control layers, as well as waterproofing membranes and reflective thermal insulation. In addition, the company provides solutions for household furniture; e-commerce, fulfillment, and 3PL; cosmetic, chemical product, and pharmaceutical; industrial product and spare part; logistics and storage; and food industry. The company was formerly known as Özerden Plastik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Özerden Ambalaj Sanayi A.S. in July 2023. Özerden Ambalaj Sanayi A.S. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN) currently trades at 13.78 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.69 TRY, 87.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3.55 TRY per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the 13.78 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.1800 TRY, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.52 TRY (bear) to 2.11 TRY (bull), the price of 13.78 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ozerden Plastik Sanayi reported revenue of 59.6M TRY in FY2019 versus 26.2M TRY in FY2015, a compound +22.8%/yr. Reported net income was −5.6M TRY in FY2019.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0B TRY (≈ $20.6M) · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) 1.10 TRY · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −9.3% · Return on equity −16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −88%, OZRDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.1800 TRY to 8.28 TRY). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 1.52 TRYFair Value 1.69 TRYBull 2.11 TRY
Price 13.78 TRY · Upside -87.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.9% (2014) → −6.0% (2019)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 256 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−87.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−9.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.04× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA0.9× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ozerden Plastik Sanayi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OZRDN
Frequently asked questions
Is Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.69 TRY versus a price of 13.78 TRY, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OZRDN?
Our model-based fair value for Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is 1.69 TRY (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.78 TRY.
What is the quality score of OZRDN?
Ozerden Plastik Sanayi has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.69 TRY (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.52 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.11 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ozerden Plastik Sanayi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.69 TRY, about −88% upside versus a price of 13.78 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.52 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.11 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Ozerden Plastik Sanayi pay a dividend?
Ozerden Plastik Sanayi currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ozerden Plastik Sanayi it is 1.69 TRY per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 13.78 TRY. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ozerden Plastik Sanayi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, OZRDN trades above its calculated fair value: price 13.78 TRY, fair value 1.69 TRY, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OZRDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.78 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.69 TRY). For Ozerden Plastik Sanayi the two are 12.09 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ozerden Plastik Sanayi worth?
The market values Ozerden Plastik Sanayi at about 1.0B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 13.78 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 1.69 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OZRDN?
Our models span a range for Ozerden Plastik Sanayi: cautious scenario 1.52 TRY, base 1.69 TRY, optimistic 2.11 TRY per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 13.78 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OZRDN?
Ozerden Plastik Sanayi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.69 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 0.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −16.5%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OZRDN from its 52-week high?
Ozerden Plastik Sanayi trades at 13.78 TRY, about 64% below its 52-week high of 38.68 TRY and 52% above the low of 9.04 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.69 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ozerden Plastik Sanayi?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ozerden Plastik Sanayi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 13.78 TRY, calculated fair value 1.69 TRY (−88%), Quality Score 42/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OZRDN calculated?
We run Ozerden Plastik Sanayi through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.69 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ozerden Plastik Sanayi itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 13.78 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 1.69 TRY, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ozerden Plastik Sanayi right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.11 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi
How large is the market capitalisation of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The market capitalisation of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is 1.0B TRY (≈ $20.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is 1.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
Earnings per share at Ozerden Plastik Sanayi are 1.10 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The dividend yield of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is 0.1% (payout 1.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The net margin of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is −9.3% (fiscal year 2019). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is −16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
The operating margin of Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
Revenue at Ozerden Plastik Sanayi is growing +24.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ozerden Plastik Sanayi (OZRDN)?
Earnings per share at Ozerden Plastik Sanayi are growing −97.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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