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PATRIZIA SE (P1Z) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PATRIZIA SE €5.25, price €6.85, upside -23.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
PATRIZIA SE
P1Z · VIOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €5.25 · Overvalued (−23.4%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.3% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 37/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.68 – €19.71 · fair‑value band €3.78 – €6.53 · the €6.85 price screens above the €5.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
PATRIZIA SE has been providing investment opportunities in smart real assets for institutional, semi-professional, and private investors for more than 40 years, focusing on real estate and infrastructure.
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PATRIZIA SE has been providing investment opportunities in smart real assets for institutional, semi-professional, and private investors for more than 40 years, focusing on real estate and infrastructure. PATRIZIA's investment solutions are driven by the (DUEL) megatrends - digital, urban, energy and living transitions - and capitalize on the opportunities arising from these transformative global shifts. PATRIZIA currently has approximately EUR 56bn in assets under management (AUM) and employs around 900 professionals across 26 locations worldwide. PATRIZIA SE has been committed to making a positive impact since its founding. In 1992, the company began collaborating closely with Bunter Kreis (Colorful Circle) in Germany to provide aftercare for children with severe diseases. Since 1999, the PATRIZIA Foundation has provided more than 750,000 children and young people worldwide with access to education, healthcare and a safe home, enabling them to live better, self-determined lives. PATRIZIA SE was established and incorporation in 1984 in Germany.
Stock analysis
PATRIZIA SE (P1Z) currently trades at €6.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.25, 23.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €8.73 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the €6.85 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €2.49, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.78 (bear) to €6.53 (bull), the price of €6.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
PATRIZIA SE reported revenue of €258M in FY2025 versus €318M in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was €18.0M in FY2025, compounding −21.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €720M · P/E ratio 34.3 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) €0.2000 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −23%, P1Z screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.78
Fair Value €5.25
Bull €6.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€4.76
€6.58
€9.64
80
Growth DCF
€4.95
€6.68
€9.36
79
Residual Income
€8.63
€8.18
€7.91
76
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€4.76
€6.58
€9.64
80
5Y Revenue Exit
€1.83
€2.33
€3.04
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
€3.93
€5.97
€8.66
75
10Y Revenue Exit
€3.08
€3.54
€3.96
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
€4.26
€5.60
€6.97
70
Multiples
P/S Multiple
€2.65
€3.53
€4.42
58
P/B Multiple
€2.65
€3.53
€4.42
55
EV/EBIT
€0.3100
€0.8300
€1.34
61
EV/EBITDA
€4.05
€5.81
€7.57
67
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
€0.3500
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€6.52
€8.73
€13.03
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€4.95
€6.68
€9.36
79
Rev-Margin DCF
€1.83
€2.49
€3.39
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€8.63
€8.18
€7.91
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Profitability
21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −23.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.1%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 78% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.9% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.6%
P1Z screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 232,000 VND | 25,731 VND | −89% |
| CBRE Group CBRE | $134.55 | $91.06 | −32% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$42.92 | HK$17.16 | −60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$24.32 | HK$13.39 | −45% |
| Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX | €23.99 | €23.94 | +0% |
| Vonovia SE VNA | €16.82 | €36.55 | +117% |
| Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL | $308.07 | $540.65 | +75% |
| Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 | HK$30.54 | HK$27.42 | −10% |
| CoStar Group CSGP | $26.95 | $6.19 | −77% |
| China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 | HK$37.00 | HK$56.36 | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is PATRIZIA SE (P1Z) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.25 versus a price of €6.85, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of P1Z?
Our model-based fair value for PATRIZIA SE is €5.25 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.85.
What is the quality score of P1Z?
PATRIZIA SE has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.25 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.78, optimistic scenario €6.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PATRIZIA SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.25, about −23% upside versus a price of €6.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.78, optimistic scenario €6.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
PATRIZIA SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €258M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does PATRIZIA SE pay a dividend?
PATRIZIA SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PATRIZIA SE would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of P1Z use?
Our models discount PATRIZIA SE at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.18, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PATRIZIA SE that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PATRIZIA SE (P1Z) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PATRIZIA SE grew -3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PATRIZIA SE (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.69 %: that much free cash flow PATRIZIA SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PATRIZIA SE it is €5.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €6.85. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PATRIZIA SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, P1Z trades above its calculated fair value: price €6.85, fair value €5.25, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of P1Z?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.25). For PATRIZIA SE the two are €1.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PATRIZIA SE worth?
The market values PATRIZIA SE at about €720M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €6.85; our models calculate a fair value of €5.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about P1Z?
Our models span a range for PATRIZIA SE: cautious scenario €3.78, base €5.25, optimistic €6.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €6.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of P1Z?
PATRIZIA SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 41.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
Balance-sheet figures for PATRIZIA SE (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.4%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is P1Z from its 52-week high?
PATRIZIA SE trades at €6.85, about 19% below its 52-week high of €8.42 and 5% above the low of €6.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PATRIZIA SE?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PATRIZIA SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €6.85, calculated fair value €5.25 (−23%), Quality Score 62/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of P1Z calculated?
We run PATRIZIA SE through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PATRIZIA SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €6.85. Our model-based fair value is €5.25, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PATRIZIA SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€6.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of PATRIZIA SE
How large is the market capitalisation of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The market capitalisation of PATRIZIA SE is €720M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PATRIZIA SE is 2.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
Earnings per share at PATRIZIA SE are €0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The dividend yield of PATRIZIA SE is 5.3% (payout 180%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The net margin of PATRIZIA SE is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PATRIZIA SE is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PATRIZIA SE is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
The operating margin of PATRIZIA SE is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
Revenue at PATRIZIA SE is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PATRIZIA SE (P1Z)?
Earnings per share at PATRIZIA SE are growing −53.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PATRIZIA SE (P1Z) carry?
The net debt of PATRIZIA SE is €108M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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