HPH Trust SGD (P7VU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of HPH Trust SGD S$0.27, price S$0.28, upside -1.8%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0827 SGD – 0.2850 SGD · fair‑value band 0.2000 SGD – 0.3700 SGD · the 0.2750 SGD price screens above the 0.2700 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust invests in, develops, operates, and manages deep-water container ports in Guangdong Province of the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust invests in, develops, operates, and manages deep-water container ports in Guangdong Province of the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Macau. The company invests in other types of port assets, such as river ports; and undertakes various port ancillary services, including trucking, feedering, freight forwarding, supply chain management, warehousing, and distribution services. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
HPH Trust SGD (P7VU) currently trades at 0.2750 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.2700 SGD, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 0.5700 SGD per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 0.2750 SGD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.1200 SGD, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.2000 SGD (bear) to 0.3700 SGD (bull), the price of 0.2750 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
HPH Trust SGD reported revenue of HK$11.6B in FY2025 versus HK$13.2B in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$748M in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.4B SGD (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) 0.0200 SGD · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin 44.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 57% fair-value upside, at −2%, P7VU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.2000 SGDFair Value 0.2700 SGDBull 0.3700 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 39%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.6% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 225 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−1.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.3% · Below median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)44.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)42.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Is HPH Trust SGD (P7VU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.2700 SGD versus a price of 0.2750 SGD, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of P7VU?
Our model-based fair value for HPH Trust SGD is 0.2700 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.2750 SGD.
What is the quality score of P7VU?
HPH Trust SGD has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.2700 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.2000 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.3700 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HPH Trust SGD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.2700 SGD, about −2% upside versus a price of 0.2750 SGD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 0.2000 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.3700 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
HPH Trust SGD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HPH Trust SGD would have to grow free cash flow by -9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of P7VU use?
Our models discount HPH Trust SGD at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HPH Trust SGD that is -9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HPH Trust SGD (P7VU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HPH Trust SGD grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies -9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HPH Trust SGD (-9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.50 %: that much free cash flow HPH Trust SGD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HPH Trust SGD it is 0.2700 SGD per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of 0.2750 SGD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HPH Trust SGD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, P7VU trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.2750 SGD, fair value 0.2700 SGD, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of P7VU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.2750 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.2700 SGD). For HPH Trust SGD the two are 0.0050 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HPH Trust SGD worth?
The market values HPH Trust SGD at about 2.4B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is 0.2750 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.2700 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about P7VU?
Our models span a range for HPH Trust SGD: cautious scenario 0.2000 SGD, base 0.2700 SGD, optimistic 0.3700 SGD per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price 0.2750 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of P7VU?
HPH Trust SGD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.2700 SGD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
Balance-sheet figures for HPH Trust SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is P7VU from its 52-week high?
HPH Trust SGD trades at 0.2750 SGD, about 4% below its 52-week high of 0.2850 SGD and 22% above the low of 0.2250 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.2700 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HPH Trust SGD?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HPH Trust SGD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price 0.2750 SGD, calculated fair value 0.2700 SGD (−2%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of P7VU calculated?
We run HPH Trust SGD through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.2700 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HPH Trust SGD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 0.2750 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.2700 SGD, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HPH Trust SGD right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (0.2000 SGD to 0.3700 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of HPH Trust SGD
How large is the market capitalisation of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The market capitalisation of HPH Trust SGD is 2.4B SGD (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HPH Trust SGD is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
Earnings per share at HPH Trust SGD are 0.0200 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The net margin of HPH Trust SGD is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HPH Trust SGD is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HPH Trust SGD is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
The operating margin of HPH Trust SGD is 44.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
Revenue at HPH Trust SGD is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HPH Trust SGD (P7VU)?
Earnings per share at HPH Trust SGD are growing +85.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HPH Trust SGD (P7VU) carry?
The net debt of HPH Trust SGD is HK$15.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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