Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras $15.70, price $18.52, upside -15.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.94 – $19.73 · fair‑value band $12.35 – $20.97 · the $18.52 price screens above the $15.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.
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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) currently trades at $18.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.70, implying the stock looks roughly 18.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.70 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $18.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.87, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.35 (bear) to $20.97 (bull), the price of $18.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras reported revenue of $90.8B in FY2025 versus $84.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $20.1B in FY2025, compounding +0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $119B · P/E ratio 4.7 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) $3.96 · Net margin 22.1% · Return on equity 30.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.8% · Operating margin 44.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −15%, PBR-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.35Fair Value $15.70Bull $20.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2175 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.7% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 29%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.8% a year for the price.
Compare Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)30.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth42.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)19.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PBR-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.70 versus a price of $18.52, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PBR-A?
Our model-based fair value for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is $15.70 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.52.
What is the quality score of PBR-A?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.70 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.35, optimistic scenario $20.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.70, about −15% upside versus a price of $18.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.35, optimistic scenario $20.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras would have to grow free cash flow by -7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PBR-A use?
Our models discount Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras that is -7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies -7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (-7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.03 %: that much free cash flow Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras it is $15.70 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $18.52. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, PBR-A trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.52, fair value $15.70, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PBR-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.70). For Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras the two are $2.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras worth?
The market values Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras at about $119B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $18.52; our models calculate a fair value of $15.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PBR-A?
Our models span a range for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras: cautious scenario $12.35, base $15.70, optimistic $20.97 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $18.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PBR-A?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.5.
What is the PEG ratio of PBR-A?
The PEG ratio of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is 5.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 30.3%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PBR-A from its 52-week high?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras trades at $18.52, about 6% below its 52-week high of $19.73 and 76% above the low of $10.50 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $18.52, calculated fair value $15.70 (−15%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PBR-A calculated?
We run Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $18.52. Our model-based fair value is $15.70, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
How large is the market capitalisation of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The market capitalisation of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is $119B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
Earnings per share at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras are $3.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The net margin of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is 22.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is 30.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is 18.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
The operating margin of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
Revenue at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is growing +42.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)?
Earnings per share at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras are growing +96.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) carry?
The net debt of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is $63.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 28, 2026