Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Palladyne AI Corp $1.60, price $5.44, upside -70.6%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4607 – $66.72 · fair‑value band $1.31 – $2.05 · the $5.44 price screens above the $1.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Palladyne AI Corp., a technology company, develops and offers embodied artificial intelligence software and collaborative autonomy solutions in the United States. Its Artificial Intelligence (AI)/ Machine Learning (ML) Foundational Technology enables robots to observe, learn, reason, and act in unstructured.
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Palladyne AI Corp., a technology company, develops and offers embodied artificial intelligence software and collaborative autonomy solutions in the United States. Its Artificial Intelligence (AI)/ Machine Learning (ML) Foundational Technology enables robots to observe, learn, reason, and act in unstructured. In addition, the company's technologies enable robotic systems to perceive their environment and quickly adapt to changing circumstances by generalizing from their experience using dynamic real-time operations without extensive programming, training, or the latency associated with processing in the cloud. Further, it offers Palladyne IQ used with industrial robots and cobots, enabling them to learn multiple tasks and handle disruptions or obstacles; and develops Palladyne Pilot for use with unmanned platform, such as UAVs to enable persistent detection, identification, tracking, and classification of objects of interest by sharing situational awareness information across multiple drones that is derived by fusing multi-modal sensor data. It serves industrial manufacturing, defense, infrastructure maintenance, repair and surveillance, energy, and aerospace and aviation industries. The company was formerly known as Sarcos Technology and Robotics Corporation and changed its name to Palladyne AI Corp. in March 2024. Palladyne AI Corp. is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Stock analysis
Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN) currently trades at $5.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.60, implying the stock looks roughly 240.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $4.46 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the $5.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.06, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.31 (bear) to $2.05 (bull), the price of $5.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Palladyne AI Corp reported revenue of $5.2M in FY2025 versus $5.1M in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $10.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $331M · P/S ratio 46.8 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5900 · Return on equity −51.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −84.4% · Operating margin −337% · Revenue (TTM) $7.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +107%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −71%, PDYN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.31Fair Value $1.60Bull $2.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−32.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−238.3% (2020) → −617.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (55 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−30% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)191% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth107% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.43× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)46.75× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Palladyne AI Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PDYN
Frequently asked questions
Is Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.60 versus a price of $5.44, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PDYN?
Our model-based fair value for Palladyne AI Corp is $1.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.44.
What is the quality score of PDYN?
Palladyne AI Corp has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.31, optimistic scenario $2.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Palladyne AI Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.60, about −71% upside versus a price of $5.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.31, optimistic scenario $2.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
Palladyne AI Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Palladyne AI Corp it is $1.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.44. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Palladyne AI Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PDYN trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.44, fair value $1.60, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.60). For Palladyne AI Corp the two are $3.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Palladyne AI Corp worth?
The market values Palladyne AI Corp at about $331M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.44; our models calculate a fair value of $1.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDYN?
Our models span a range for Palladyne AI Corp: cautious scenario $1.31, base $1.60, optimistic $2.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Palladyne AI Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −51.6%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDYN from its 52-week high?
Palladyne AI Corp trades at $5.44, about 47% below its 52-week high of $10.30 and 31% above the low of $4.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Palladyne AI Corp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Palladyne AI Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.44, calculated fair value $1.60 (−71%), Quality Score 33/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDYN calculated?
We run Palladyne AI Corp through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Palladyne AI Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.44. Our model-based fair value is $1.60, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Palladyne AI Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Palladyne AI Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
The market capitalisation of Palladyne AI Corp is $331M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Palladyne AI Corp is 46.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
Earnings per share at Palladyne AI Corp are $−0.5900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Palladyne AI Corp is −51.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Palladyne AI Corp is −84.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
The operating margin of Palladyne AI Corp is −337% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN)?
Revenue at Palladyne AI Corp is growing +107% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN) generate?
The free cash flow of Palladyne AI Corp is −$28.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Palladyne AI Corp (PDYN) hold?
Palladyne AI Corp holds more cash than debt, $7.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026