Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Penn National Gaming Inc $6.99, price $14.65, upside -52.3%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.76 – $84.84 · the $14.65 price screens above the $6.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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PENN Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated entertainment, sports content, and casino gaming experiences in the United States and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Northeast, South, West, Midwest, and Interactive.
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PENN Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated entertainment, sports content, and casino gaming experiences in the United States and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Northeast, South, West, Midwest, and Interactive. It operates a portfolio of casinos, racetracks, and online sports betting; online gaming portfolio, such as theScore Bet, an online sportsbook; theScore Casino, a stand-alone iCasino website and app; Hollywood Casino, an iCasino and theScore Bet website and app; PENN Game Studios, its in-house iCasino and social gaming content studio; and PENN Play, a customer loyalty program. The company also engages in gaming operations, including slot machines and table games; food and beverage offerings; and hotel visitation. It offers its products under the Ameristar, Argosy, Boomtown, Hollywood Casino, Hollywood Gaming, L'Auberge, M Resort, PENN Entertainment, and PENN Play, as well as theScore, theScore Bet, and theScore esports brands. The company was formerly known as Penn National Gaming, Inc. and changed its name to PENN Entertainment, Inc. in August 2022. PENN Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN) currently trades at $14.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.99, 52.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $6.99 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $14.65 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $6.99, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Penn National Gaming Inc reported revenue of $7.0B in FY2025 versus $5.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$843M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $−5.97 · Net margin −12.1% · Return on equity −37.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 7.9% · Revenue (TTM) $7.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −52%, PENN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.8% (2019) → 1.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Penn National Gaming Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−52.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−12.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.10× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.28× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.01× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)26· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)22· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Penn National Gaming Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PENN
Frequently asked questions
Is Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.99 versus a price of $14.65, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PENN?
Our model-based fair value for Penn National Gaming Inc is $6.99 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.65.
What is the quality score of PENN?
Penn National Gaming Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.99 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Penn National Gaming Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.99, about −52% upside versus a price of $14.65 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Penn National Gaming Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Penn National Gaming Inc it is $6.99 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $14.65. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Penn National Gaming Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, PENN trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.65, fair value $6.99, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PENN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.99). For Penn National Gaming Inc the two are $7.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Penn National Gaming Inc worth?
The market values Penn National Gaming Inc at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $14.65; our models calculate a fair value of $6.99 per share.
What is the PEG ratio of PENN?
The PEG ratio of Penn National Gaming Inc is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Penn National Gaming Inc (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity −37.6%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PENN from its 52-week high?
Penn National Gaming Inc trades at $14.65, about 34% below its 52-week high of $22.06 and 25% above the low of $11.76 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Penn National Gaming Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Penn National Gaming Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $14.65, calculated fair value $6.99 (−52%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PENN calculated?
We run Penn National Gaming Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Penn National Gaming Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $14.65. Our model-based fair value is $6.99, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Penn National Gaming Inc right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Penn National Gaming Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
The market capitalisation of Penn National Gaming Inc is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Penn National Gaming Inc is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Earnings per share at Penn National Gaming Inc are $−5.97. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
The net margin of Penn National Gaming Inc is −12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Penn National Gaming Inc is −37.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Penn National Gaming Inc is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
The operating margin of Penn National Gaming Inc is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Revenue at Penn National Gaming Inc is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)?
Earnings per share at Penn National Gaming Inc are growing +209% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN) generate?
The free cash flow of Penn National Gaming Inc is −$140M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN) carry?
The net debt of Penn National Gaming Inc is $7.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 1, 2026