Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero IDR 2,825, price IDR 1,190, upside +137.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 620.54 IDR – 2,271 IDR · fair‑value band 2,119 IDR – 3,532 IDR · the 1,190 IDR price screens below the 2,825 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
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PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission and distribution of natural gas in Indonesia. It operates through three segments: Trading and Transmission, Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas, and Other Operations.
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The company is involved in the trading and transmission of oil and gas; processing of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to industrial, commercial and household customers; and trading of LNG and natural gas.
It also engages in exploration, exploitation, and business development in oil and gas; provision of fiber optic for network services, as well as construction and maintenance services to customers and management; management and leasing buildings and equipment; and distribution of oil and natural gas.
In addition, the company provides telecommunication, engineering, consultancy and services. The company was formerly known as PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk and changed its name to PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk in January 2026.
The company was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. As of April 30, 2018, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Pertamina (Persero).
Stock analysis
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) currently trades at 1,190 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,825 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 3,407 IDR per share, and 24 of the 25 models we run sit above the 1,190 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,360 IDR, and 1 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2,119 IDR (bear) to 3,532 IDR (bull), the price of 1,190 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $3.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was $213M in FY2025, compounding −8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 33.7T IDR (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) 180.09 IDR · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 13.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 137%, PGAS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear2,119 IDRFair Value 2,825 IDRBull3,532 IDR
Price 1,190 IDR · Upside +137.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (142.59 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF2,668 IDR3,434 IDR4,371 IDR81
Growth DCF2,712 IDR3,414 IDR4,237 IDR79
Owner Earnings2,630 IDR3,384 IDR4,304 IDR77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF2,668 IDR3,434 IDR4,371 IDR81
Owner Earnings2,630 IDR3,384 IDR4,304 IDR77
5Y Revenue Exit2,444 IDR3,370 IDR4,491 IDR72
5Y EBITDA Exit2,842 IDR4,070 IDR5,424 IDR75
5Y P/E Exit2,408 IDR3,305 IDR4,182 IDR71
10Y Revenue Exit2,470 IDR3,260 IDR4,205 IDR67
10Y EBITDA Exit2,745 IDR3,691 IDR4,821 IDR69
10Y P/E Exit2,498 IDR3,220 IDR4,001 IDR64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd1,071 IDR2,384 IDR3,045 IDR66
PEG = 1.0384.80 IDR549.72 IDR714.64 IDR57
EPV1,661 IDR1,837 IDR1,984 IDR73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM1,338 IDR1,979 IDR2,586 IDR69
DDM Multi-Stage1,338 IDR1,839 IDR2,327 IDR67
Multiples
P/E Multiple2,126 IDR2,835 IDR3,544 IDR63
P/S Multiple2,008 IDR2,678 IDR3,347 IDR57
P/B Multiple2,008 IDR2,678 IDR3,347 IDR55
EV/EBIT2,906 IDR3,752 IDR4,598 IDR65
EV/EBITDA3,353 IDR4,347 IDR5,342 IDR67
EV/Revenue2,421 IDR3,301 IDR4,181 IDR53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)1,015 IDR1,360 IDR2,030 IDR53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF2,712 IDR3,414 IDR4,237 IDR79
Rev-Margin DCF2,444 IDR3,407 IDR4,433 IDR72
Economic Profit
Residual Income1,602 IDR1,687 IDR1,837 IDR76
ROIC Compounder1,661 IDR1,837 IDR1,984 IDR71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E1,602 IDR2,288 IDR2,975 IDR67
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.8% vs −6.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−32.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −33.6% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+137.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Return on assets5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PGAS
Frequently asked questions
Is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,825 IDR versus a price of 1,190 IDR, about +137% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PGAS?
Our model-based fair value for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 2,825 IDR (as of Oct 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,190 IDR.
What is the quality score of PGAS?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,825 IDR (as of Oct 15, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,119 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,532 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,825 IDR, about +137% upside versus a price of 1,190 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,119 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,532 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 15, 2026).
What growth is priced into Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero would have to grow free cash flow by -32.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Oct 15, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGAS use?
Our models discount Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero that is -32.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -32.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (-32.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.18 %: that much free cash flow Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero it is 2,825 IDR per share (as of Oct 15, 2026), against a price of 1,190 IDR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, PGAS trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,190 IDR, fair value 2,825 IDR, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGAS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,190 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,825 IDR). For Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero the two are 1,635 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero worth?
The market values Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero at about 33.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 15, 2026). Per share that is 1,190 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,825 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGAS?
Our models span a range for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero: cautious scenario 2,119 IDR, base 2,825 IDR, optimistic 3,532 IDR per share (as of Oct 15, 2026, price 1,190 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGAS?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Oct 15, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,825 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PGAS?
The PEG ratio of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 0.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 15, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (as of Oct 15, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGAS from its 52-week high?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero trades at 1,190 IDR, about 48% below its 52-week high of 2,271 IDR and at the low of 1,190 IDR (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,825 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 15, 2026: price 1,190 IDR, calculated fair value 2,825 IDR (+137%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGAS calculated?
We run Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,825 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was 1,190 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,825 IDR, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (2,119 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) come from?
Earnings per share at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero grew −5.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero
How large is the market capitalisation of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The market capitalisation of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 33.7T IDR (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Earnings per share at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero are 180.09 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The net margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
The operating margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Revenue at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS)?
Earnings per share at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero are growing +45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero (PGAS) hold?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero holds more cash than debt, $265M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 15, 2026