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Altria Group (PHM7) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Altria Group €73.86, price €59.66, upside +23.8%, quality 84 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Altria Group
PHM7 · XETRAUndervalued, solidFair Value upside is positive and quality is strong.
✓Fair value €73.86 · Undervalued (+23.8%)
✓Quality 84/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 39.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!7.0% dividend yield · Payout strained
✓Wide moat 92/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €26.63 – €66.32 · fair‑value band €50.83 – €95.51 · the €59.66 price screens below the €73.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.
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Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Altria Group (PHM7) currently trades at €59.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €73.86, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €77.39 per share, and 10 of the 21 models we run sit above the €59.66 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €23.15, and 11 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €50.83 (bear) to €95.51 (bull), the price of €59.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Altria Group reported revenue of $20.1B in FY2025 versus $21.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was $6.9B in FY2025, compounding +29.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €100B · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 4.87 · EPS (TTM) €4.21 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 34.4% · Return on equity 39.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 33.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 24%, PHM7 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €50.83
Fair Value €73.86
Bull €95.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0076 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€41.55
€61.97
€99.79
79
Growth DCF
€43.97
€63.79
€97.70
78
Owner Earnings
€30.71
€46.87
€76.81
75
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€41.55
€61.97
€99.79
79
Owner Earnings
€30.71
€46.87
€76.81
75
5Y Revenue Exit
€15.91
€21.93
€30.56
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
€51.40
€83.37
€125.72
74
5Y P/E Exit
€40.11
€63.82
€92.18
70
10Y Revenue Exit
€25.29
€30.68
€35.88
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
€47.12
€68.67
€91.75
69
10Y P/E Exit
€40.27
€56.58
€72.05
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€25.06
€30.63
€34.46
67
EPV
€53.49
€64.14
€73.47
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€34.00
€37.21
€42.11
69
DDM Multi-Stage
€34.00
€42.65
€54.79
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€58.04
€77.39
€96.73
63
P/S Multiple
€12.86
€17.14
€21.43
58
EV/EBIT
€91.71
€125.77
€159.83
66
EV/EBITDA
€69.05
€95.56
€122.06
67
EV/Revenue
€0.7900
€5.61
€10.43
47
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€43.97
€63.79
€97.70
78
Rev-Margin DCF
€15.91
€23.15
€32.01
73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
€53.49
€65.31
€76.28
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€40.98
€58.55
€76.11
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
84/100
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Profitability
82
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
57
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.1% vs 4.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 55%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.1% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.2%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Tobacco
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Frequently asked questions
Is Altria Group (PHM7) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €73.86 versus a price of €59.66, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PHM7?
Our model-based fair value for Altria Group is €73.86 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €59.66.
What is the quality score of PHM7?
Altria Group has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Altria Group (PHM7)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €73.86 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €50.83, optimistic scenario €95.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Altria Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €73.86, about +24% upside versus a price of €59.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €50.83, optimistic scenario €95.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Altria Group (PHM7)?
Altria Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Altria Group pay a dividend?
Altria Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Altria Group (PHM7)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Altria Group would have to grow free cash flow by -0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PHM7 use?
Our models discount Altria Group at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Altria Group that is -0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Altria Group (PHM7) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Altria Group grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Altria Group (PHM7) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Altria Group (-0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.03 %: that much free cash flow Altria Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Altria Group (PHM7)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Altria Group it is €73.86 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €59.66. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Altria Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, PHM7 trades below its calculated fair value: price €59.66, fair value €73.86, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PHM7?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€59.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€73.86). For Altria Group the two are €14.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Altria Group worth?
The market values Altria Group at about €100B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €59.66; our models calculate a fair value of €73.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PHM7?
Our models span a range for Altria Group: cautious scenario €50.83, base €73.86, optimistic €95.51 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €59.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is PHM7 from its 52-week high?
Altria Group trades at €59.66, about 10% below its 52-week high of €66.32 and 31% above the low of €45.59 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €73.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Altria Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., ITC Limited, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Altria Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €59.66, calculated fair value €73.86 (+24%), Quality Score 84/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PHM7 calculated?
We run Altria Group through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €73.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Altria Group currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €59.66. Our model-based fair value is €73.86, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Altria Group right now?
A fairly wide model range (€50.83 to €95.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Altria Group (PHM7) come from?
Earnings per share at Altria Group grew +2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.4 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Altria Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The market capitalisation of Altria Group is €100B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Altria Group is 14.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Altria Group is 4.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Altria Group (PHM7)?
Earnings per share at Altria Group are €4.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The dividend yield of Altria Group is 7.0% (payout 99.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The net margin of Altria Group is 34.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Altria Group is 39.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Altria Group (PHM7)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Altria Group is 33.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Altria Group (PHM7)?
The operating margin of Altria Group is 62.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Altria Group (PHM7)?
Revenue at Altria Group is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Altria Group (PHM7)?
Earnings per share at Altria Group are growing +106% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Altria Group (PHM7) carry?
The net debt of Altria Group is $21.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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