Pick n Pay Stores Limited (PIK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · ZA · Market cap 13.9B ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −7.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 36% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R23.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R16.67 – R61.05 · fair‑value band R23.35 – R28.93 · the R18.96 price screens below the R25.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Pick n Pay Stores Limited (PIK) currently trades at R18.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R25.70, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pick n Pay Stores Limited generated revenue of 123B ZAR at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.8%. Net debt stands at 15.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R23.35 (bear case) to R28.93 (bull case); at R18.96, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 36%, PIK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R45.22) versus Dividend Discount (R1.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pick n Pay Stores Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food, health and beauty products, general merchandise, clothing, liquor, and additional value-added-services in South Africa and Rest of Africa. It owns and franchises hypermarkets, supermarkets, clothing stores, liquor stores, superstores, build stores, and express stores.
Full company description
Pick n Pay Stores Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food, health and beauty products, general merchandise, clothing, liquor, and additional value-added-services in South Africa and Rest of Africa. It owns and franchises hypermarkets, supermarkets, clothing stores, liquor stores, superstores, build stores, and express stores. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Pick n Pay Stores Limited reported revenue of R123B in FY2026 versus R99.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −R728M in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Department Stores · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 5,875 CLP | 8,880 CLP | +51% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 263.70 MXN | +165% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.70 MYR | 1.45 MYR | -61% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 2,040 CLP | 2,516 CLP | +23% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹113.94 | ₹37.39 | -67% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 610,000 KRW | 200,259 KRW | -67% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 59.59 MXN | +98% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 155,300 KRW | 81,725 KRW | -47% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$14.10 | R$33.36 | +137% |
| La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC | 34.37 MXN | 51.49 MXN | +50% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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