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Pick n Pay Stores Limited (PIK) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · ZA · Market cap 13.9B ZAC

PN Pick n Pay Stores Limited PIK · JSE
PriceR18.96
Fair ValueR25.70
Upside+35.6%
Quality32/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Narrow moat 21/100
Evidence: High Range R23.35 – R28.93 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −7.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 36% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (R23.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R61.05 R16.67 Fair Value R25.70 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R16.67 – R61.05 · fair‑value band R23.35 – R28.93 · the R18.96 price screens below the R25.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Pick n Pay Stores Limited (PIK) currently trades at R18.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R25.70, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pick n Pay Stores Limited generated revenue of 123B ZAR at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.8%. Net debt stands at 15.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R23.35 (bear case) to R28.93 (bull case); at R18.96, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 36%, PIK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R24.57 R34.25 R48.07 80
Rev-Margin DCF R24.02 R35.91 R49.45 74
ROIC Compounder R25.06 R30.38 R36.44 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R24.20 R35.08 R51.58 38
Owner Earnings R23.18 R33.52 R49.18 31
5Y Revenue Exit R24.02 R35.88 R50.93 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R50.57 R85.27 R125.92 41
10Y Revenue Exit R23.27 R34.09 R48.45 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R40.78 R68.28 R105.40 37
Earnings-Based
EPV R23.73 R26.98 R29.83 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R0.8900 R1.85 R2.93 70
DDM Multi-Stage R0.8900 R1.45 R1.94 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT R34.96 R45.22 R55.48 53
EV/EBITDA R72.38 R95.11 R117.84 54
EV/Revenue R24.93 R33.82 R42.71 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R6.51 R8.72 R13.02 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R24.57 R34.25 R48.07 80
Rev-Margin DCF R24.02 R35.91 R49.45 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder R25.06 R30.38 R36.44 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (R45.22) versus Dividend Discount (R1.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 123B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.4%
Net margin -0.6%
Return on equity -1.8%
Free cash flow 1.3B ZAC FY2026
Operating margin 2.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) R-0.9900
EPS growth (YoY) -22.4%
Net debt 15.5B ZAC FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Pick n Pay Stores Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food, health and beauty products, general merchandise, clothing, liquor, and additional value-added-services in South Africa and Rest of Africa. It owns and franchises hypermarkets, supermarkets, clothing stores, liquor stores, superstores, build stores, and express stores.

Full company description

Pick n Pay Stores Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food, health and beauty products, general merchandise, clothing, liquor, and additional value-added-services in South Africa and Rest of Africa. It owns and franchises hypermarkets, supermarkets, clothing stores, liquor stores, superstores, build stores, and express stores. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Pick n Pay Stores Limited reported revenue of R123B in FY2026 versus R99.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −R728M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
123B ZAR
Latest YoY
+1.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Revenue +5.4%/yr
FY22 R99.6B
FY23 R109B
FY24 R115B
FY25 R122B
FY26 R123B
Net income
FY22 R1.2B
FY23 R1.2B
FY24 −R3.2B
FY25 −R736M
FY26 −R728M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pick n Pay Stores Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PIK

Peer Group

Department Stores · 127 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +36% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth -2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.09× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 115.61× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 81 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 2
PAST 0 · sector 16
HEALTH 99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Falabella S.A FALABELLA 5,875 CLP 8,880 CLP +51%
El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 99.62 MXN 263.70 MXN +165%
99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 3.70 MYR 1.45 MYR -61%
Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD 2,040 CLP 2,516 CLP +23%
Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM ₹113.94 ₹37.39 -67%
SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 610,000 KRW 200,259 KRW -67%
Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB 30.04 MXN 59.59 MXN +98%
Lotte Shopping Co 023530 155,300 KRW 81,725 KRW -47%
Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 R$14.10 R$33.36 +137%
La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC 34.37 MXN 51.49 MXN +50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Pick n Pay Stores Limited (PIK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R25.70 versus a price of R18.96, about +36% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PIK?
Our model-based fair value for Pick n Pay Stores Limited is R25.70 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R18.96.
What is the quality score of PIK?
Pick n Pay Stores Limited has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Pick n Pay Stores Limited (PIK)?
Pick n Pay Stores Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 123B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PIK?
The net profit margin of Pick n Pay Stores Limited is about -0.6%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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