Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd stock ZAR 17.77, price ZAR 26.00, that is 31.7% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R16.75 – R61.34 · fair‑value band R17.77 – R25.70 · the R26.00 price screens above the R17.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Pick n Pay Stores Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food, health and beauty products, general merchandise, clothing, liquor, and additional value-added-services in South Africa and Rest of Africa.
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It owns and franchises hypermarkets, supermarkets, clothing stores, liquor stores, superstores, build stores, and express stores. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK) currently trades at R26.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R17.77, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R43.37 per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the R26.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R7.64, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R17.77 (bear) to R25.70 (bull), the price of R26.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd reported revenue of 123B ZAR in FY2026 versus 99.6B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −728M ZAR in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 19.1B ZAR Small · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) R−0.6800 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −0.4% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −32%, PIK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR17.77Fair Value R17.77BullR25.70
Price R26.00 · Downside -31.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFR35.34R46.33R59.5382
Growth DCFR35.35R44.85R55.5980
Owner EarningsR30.42R39.67R50.7878
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFR35.34R46.33R59.5382
Owner EarningsR30.42R39.67R50.7878
5Y Revenue ExitR29.03R39.64R52.6773
5Y EBITDA ExitR50.87R80.17R114.0875
10Y Revenue ExitR31.20R40.41R51.9668
10Y EBITDA ExitR43.05R63.43R90.1668
Earnings-Based
EPVR17.96R19.50R20.7374
Multiples
EV/EBITR9.72R19.98R30.2462
EV/EBITDAR47.14R69.87R92.6066
EV/Revenuen/aR8.58R17.4750
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R5.70R7.64R11.4054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFR35.35R44.85R55.5980
Rev-Margin DCFR29.03R40.11R52.9073
Economic Profit
ROIC CompounderR18.52R20.90R23.3572
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.9% (2021) → 1.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−29.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Return on assets−1.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.93× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.15× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG115.61× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pick N Pay Stores Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PIK
Frequently asked questions
Is Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R17.77 versus a price of R26.00, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PIK?
Our model-based fair value for Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is R17.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R26.00.
What is the quality score of PIK?
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R17.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario R17.77, optimistic scenario R25.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pick N Pay Stores Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R17.77, about 32% lower versus a price of R26.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R17.77, optimistic scenario R25.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 125B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Pick N Pay Stores Ltd pay a dividend?
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.4%.
What growth is priced into Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pick N Pay Stores Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PIK use?
Our models discount Pick N Pay Stores Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pick N Pay Stores Ltd that is +8.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pick N Pay Stores Ltd grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (+8.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.83 %: that much free cash flow Pick N Pay Stores Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pick N Pay Stores Ltd it is R17.77 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of R26.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Pick N Pay Stores Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PIK trades above its calculated fair value: price R26.00, fair value R17.77, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PIK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R26.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R17.77). For Pick N Pay Stores Ltd the two are R8.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pick N Pay Stores Ltd worth?
The market values Pick N Pay Stores Ltd at about 19.1B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is R26.00; our models calculate a fair value of R17.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PIK?
Our models span a range for Pick N Pay Stores Ltd: cautious scenario R17.77, base R17.77, optimistic R25.70 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price R26.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of PIK?
The PEG ratio of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 115.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PIK from its 52-week high?
Pick N Pay Stores Ltd trades at R26.00, about 6% below its 52-week high of R27.66 and 45% above the low of R17.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R17.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pick N Pay Stores Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pick N Pay Stores Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price R26.00, calculated fair value R17.77 (−32%), Quality Score 32/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PIK calculated?
We run Pick N Pay Stores Ltd through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R17.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Pick N Pay Stores Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was R26.00. Our model-based fair value is R17.77, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pick N Pay Stores Ltd right now?
Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The market capitalisation of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 19.1B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Earnings per share at Pick N Pay Stores Ltd are R−0.6800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The dividend yield of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The net margin of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is −0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
The operating margin of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Revenue at Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK)?
Earnings per share at Pick N Pay Stores Ltd are growing −22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pick N Pay Stores Ltd (PIK) carry?
The net debt of Pick N Pay Stores Ltd is 15.5B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 11.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026