Grupo Pochteca, S.A. (POCHTECB) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 749M MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −2.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.92 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (1.96 MXN to 3.92 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.50 MXN – 8.98 MXN · fair‑value band 1.96 MXN – 3.92 MXN · the 5.88 MXN price screens above the 2.62 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Pochteca, S.A. (POCHTECB) currently trades at 5.88 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.62 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Pochteca, S.A. generated revenue of 8.3B MXN at a net margin of -4.2%. Revenue declined 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -50.3%. Net debt stands at 2.1B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.96 MXN (bear case) to 3.92 MXN (bull case); at 5.88 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -55%, POCHTECB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (2.62 MXN) versus Multiples (1.82 MXN). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Pochteca, S.A.B. de C.V. markets and distributes industrial raw materials in Mexico, Brazil, and Central and South America.
Full company description
Grupo Pochteca, S.A.B. de C.V. markets and distributes industrial raw materials in Mexico, Brazil, and Central and South America. It offers sodium carbonate, caustic soda, calcium chloride, hydrochloric acid, caustic potash, potassium chloride, sodium hypochlorite, sodium sulfite, silicates, sodium metabisulfite, coagulants, flocculants, antiscalants, biocides, pH adjusters, filter media, salt, strong oxidants, clarifiers, hardness control, resins, membranes, cleaning and disinfection solutions, aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons, ketones, alcohols, esters and glycols, thinners and mixes, reaction chemicals, pigments, inert materials, additives, automotive and surface treatment solutions, lubricants and greases, food additives, dairy derivatives, specialty ingredients and mixtures, plant nutrition and crop protection products, surfactants, essences and fragrances, dyes and pigments, carbomers, extracts, antistatics, and specialty products. The company also provides logistics and specialized services, such as product storage, delivery of products, maquilas, unloading, local distribution, and consolidated freight; environmental solutions comprising waste management services; and paper and cardboard products. It serves chemical, food, automotive, oil exploration and drilling, metalworking, solvents and mixtures, lubricants, and personal and home care, paints and coatings, water treatment, cleaning and sanitation, mining, construction and other industries in Mexico, Central America, South America-Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Brazil. Grupo Pochteca, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Pochteca, S.A. reported revenue of 8.3B MXN in FY2025 versus 8.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −358M MXN in FY2025.
POCHTECB screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 668 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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