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Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pepper Money Ltd A$3.03, price A$1.73, upside +75.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · AU · ISIN AU0000150898

PM Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Pepper Money Ltd

PPM · AU

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value A$3.03 · Strongly undervalued (+75%)
!Quality 41/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·8.21% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
✓Wide moat 66/100
!Weak on future: 21 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.40 A$0.7955 Fair Value A$3.03 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.7955 – A$2.40 · fair‑value band A$1.66 – A$3.78 · the A$1.73 price screens below the A$3.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Pepper Money Limited operates as a non-bank lender in the mortgage and asset finance markets in Australia and New Zealand. It operates through three segments: Mortgages, Asset Finance, and Loan and Other Servicing.

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Pepper Money Limited operates as a non-bank lender in the mortgage and asset finance markets in Australia and New Zealand. It operates through three segments: Mortgages, Asset Finance, and Loan and Other Servicing. The Mortgages segment engages in the financing for residential home loans, small balance commercial real estate loans, and self-managed super fund mortgages. The Asset Finance segment finances a range of asset types for consumer and commercial customers. The Loan and Other Servicing segment provides independent loan servicing for mortgages, and asset finance and personal loans. It also offers auto and equipment finance, novated leases, and third-party loan services. The company was formerly known as Pepper Group Pty Limited. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in North Sydney, Australia. Pepper Money Limited is a subsidiary of Pepper Group Anz Holdco Limited.

Stock analysis

Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) currently trades at A$1.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.03, implying the stock looks roughly 42.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$9.28 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the A$1.73 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.30, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: A$1.66 (bear) to A$3.78 (bull), the price of A$1.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Pepper Money Ltd reported revenue of A$1.4B in FY2025 versus A$771M in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$105M in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap A$799M (≈ $563M) · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2300 · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 75%, PPM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$1.66 Fair Value A$3.03 Bull A$3.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0644 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income A$1.69 A$1.90 A$3.08 72
Owner Earnings n/a A$9.28 A$52.61 71
P/E Multiple A$2.27 A$3.03 A$3.78 63
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings n/a A$9.28 A$52.61 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$1.58 A$11.04 A$15.49 61
Lynch FV A$5.70 A$8.15 A$10.59 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$2.27 A$3.03 A$3.78 63
P/B Multiple A$2.03 A$2.71 A$3.39 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.9700 A$1.30 A$1.94 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.69 A$1.90 A$3.08 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 77%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 330 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside +75% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 19.97× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.65× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.42× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)21 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 59
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 66

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Visa Inc V $362.04 $227.35 −37%
Mastercard Incorporated MA $555.89 $356.78 −36%
American Express Company AXP $305.07 $206.40 −32%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $200.55 $125.36 −37%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,043 ₹1,101 +6%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $52.89 $99.46 +88%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $71.77 $16.24 −77%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹1,011 ₹1,374 +36%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $72.67 $137.28 +89%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $17.16 $5.57 −68%

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Pepper Money Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pepper Money Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PPM

Frequently asked questions

Is Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.03 versus a price of A$1.73, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PPM?
Our model-based fair value for Pepper Money Ltd is A$3.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.73.
What is the quality score of PPM?
Pepper Money Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.66, optimistic scenario A$3.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pepper Money Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.03, about +75% upside versus a price of A$1.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.66, optimistic scenario A$3.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Pepper Money Ltd pay a dividend?
Pepper Money Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pepper Money Ltd it is A$3.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$1.73. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pepper Money Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PPM trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.73, fair value A$3.03, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.03). For Pepper Money Ltd the two are A$1.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pepper Money Ltd worth?
The market values Pepper Money Ltd at about A$799M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$1.73; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PPM?
Our models span a range for Pepper Money Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.66, base A$3.03, optimistic A$3.78 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$1.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PPM?
Pepper Money Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 14.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pepper Money Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 19.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PPM from its 52-week high?
Pepper Money Ltd trades at A$1.73, about 28% below its 52-week high of A$2.40 and 15% above the low of A$1.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pepper Money Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pepper Money Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$1.73, calculated fair value A$3.03 (+75%), Quality Score 41/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PPM calculated?
We run Pepper Money Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pepper Money Ltd currently trades 75 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$1.73. Our model-based fair value is A$3.03, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pepper Money Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range (A$1.66 to A$3.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) come from?
Earnings per share at Pepper Money Ltd grew +4.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin +20.8 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −21.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Pepper Money Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The market capitalisation of Pepper Money Ltd is A$799M (≈ $563M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pepper Money Ltd is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
Earnings per share at Pepper Money Ltd are A$0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The dividend yield of Pepper Money Ltd is 8.2% (payout 61.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The net margin of Pepper Money Ltd is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pepper Money Ltd is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pepper Money Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
The operating margin of Pepper Money Ltd is 37.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
Revenue at Pepper Money Ltd is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pepper Money Ltd (PPM)?
Earnings per share at Pepper Money Ltd are growing +9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) generate?
The free cash flow of Pepper Money Ltd is −A$721M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) carry?
The net debt of Pepper Money Ltd is A$16.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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