Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Provident Financial Holdings Inc stock $15.21, price $18.20, that is 16.4% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.81 – $18.71 · fair‑value band $11.87 – $19.79 · the $18.20 price screens above the $15.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking and financial services in Southern California, the United States.
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The company offers deposit products, such as checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts; and merchant and wealth management services.
It also provides lending services, including single-family, multi-family, commercial real estate, and other mortgage loans; and construction, commercial business, and consumer loans.
In addition, the company offers investment services comprising the sale of alternative investment products, such as annuities and mutual funds; and trustee services for real estate secured loan transactions. It serves individuals, small to mid-sized businesses, and institutional clients.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Riverside, California.
Stock analysis
Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) currently trades at $18.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.21, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $15.83 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.00, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.87 (bear) to $19.79 (bull), the price of $18.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Provident Financial Holdings Inc reported revenue of $59.6M in FY2026 versus $39.4M in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $6.7M in FY2026, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $117M Micro · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 2.89 · EPS (TTM) $1.03 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 16.4% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −16%, PROV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.87Fair Value $15.21Bull$19.79
Price $18.20 · Downside -16.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1700 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $131,836 and none bought.
SaleDavid WeiantSenior Vice President4× since Jun 1, 2026: 7,744 shares, avg. $17.02$131,836Jun 10, 2026
SaleGwendolyn WertzSenior Vice President4,800 shares at $15.64$75,072Nov 12, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.3% vs 1.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 16%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (64 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Provident Financial Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.24× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.89× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA23.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.00× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)52· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)62· sector 53
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.21 versus a price of $18.20, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PROV?
Our model-based fair value for Provident Financial Holdings Inc is $15.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.20.
What is the quality score of PROV?
Provident Financial Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.87, optimistic scenario $19.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Provident Financial Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.21, about 16% lower versus a price of $18.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.87, optimistic scenario $19.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Provident Financial Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $40.6M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Provident Financial Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Provident Financial Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Provident Financial Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.56 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 12, 2026, with payment on Dec 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 57.1% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 54.4%). Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Provident Financial Holdings Inc it is $15.21 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $18.20. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Provident Financial Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PROV trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.20, fair value $15.21, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PROV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.21). For Provident Financial Holdings Inc the two are $2.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Provident Financial Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Provident Financial Holdings Inc at about $117M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $18.20; our models calculate a fair value of $15.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PROV?
Our models span a range for Provident Financial Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $11.87, base $15.21, optimistic $19.79 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $18.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PROV?
Provident Financial Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.21 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 18.6 (reported for FY2026: 17.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 13.0. Other multiples: PEG 4.0, P/B 0.9, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 23.4.
What is the PEG ratio of PROV?
The PEG ratio of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 4.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Provident Financial Holdings Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 1.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PROV from its 52-week high?
Provident Financial Holdings Inc trades at $18.20, about 3% below its 52-week high of $18.71 and 23% above the low of $14.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Provident Financial Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Provident Financial Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $18.20, calculated fair value $15.21 (−16%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PROV calculated?
We run Provident Financial Holdings Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Provident Financial Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.20. Our model-based fair value is $15.21, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Provident Financial Holdings Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) come from?
Earnings per share at Provident Financial Holdings Inc grew +1.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.1 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Provident Financial Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The market capitalisation of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is $117M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 2.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Earnings per share at Provident Financial Holdings Inc are $1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The dividend yield of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 3.1% (payout 57.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 54.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The net margin of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 16.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
The operating margin of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is 29.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Revenue at Provident Financial Holdings Inc is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)?
Earnings per share at Provident Financial Holdings Inc are growing +41.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) generate?
The free cash flow of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is $8.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV) carry?
The net debt of Provident Financial Holdings Inc is $108M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026