Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $105M

A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.81 – $18.06 · fair‑value band $9.75 – $16.25 · the $17.93 price screens above the $13.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) currently trades at $17.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.00, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Provident Financial Holdings generated revenue of $39.6M at a net margin of 15.4%. Revenue declined 11.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at $160M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $9.75 (bear case) to $16.25 (bull case); at $17.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -27%, PROV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($13.77) versus Multiples ($13.00). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking and financial services in Southern California, the United States. The company offers deposit products, such as checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts; and merchant and wealth management services.

Full company description

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking and financial services in Southern California, the United States. The company offers deposit products, such as checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts; and merchant and wealth management services. It also provides lending services, including single-family, multi-family, commercial real estate, and other mortgage loans; and construction, commercial business, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers investment services comprising the sale of alternative investment products, such as annuities and mutual funds; and trustee services for real estate secured loan transactions. It serves individuals, small to mid-sized businesses, and institutional clients. Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Riverside, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Provident Financial Holdings reported revenue of $60.2M in FY2025 versus $39.8M in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $6.3M in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.

PROV screens 27% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.