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Persimmon Plc (PSMMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Persimmon Plc $12.38, price $15.24, upside -18.8%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Persimmon Plc
PSMMF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $12.38 · Overvalued (−18.8%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!3.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 45/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.92 – $35.23 · fair‑value band $11.82 – $13.95 · the $15.24 price screens above the $12.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Persimmon Plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a house builder in the United Kingdom. The company offers family housing under the Persimmon Homes brand name; housing under the Charles Church brand name; and social housing under the Westbury Partnerships brand name.
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Persimmon Plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a house builder in the United Kingdom. The company offers family housing under the Persimmon Homes brand name; housing under the Charles Church brand name; and social housing under the Westbury Partnerships brand name. It also provides broadband services under the FibreNest brand; and timber frame, insulated wall panels, and roof cassettes under the Space4 brand. In addition, the company offers concrete bricks under the Brickworks brand; and concrete roof tile under the Tileworks brand. Persimmon Plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in York, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Persimmon Plc, (PSMMF) currently trades at $15.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.38, 18.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.60 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the $15.24 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.99, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.82 (bear) to $13.95 (bull), the price of $15.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Persimmon Plc, reported revenue of £3.8B in FY2025 versus £3.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was £286M in FY2025, compounding −22.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) $1.18 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −19%, PSMMF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.82
Fair Value $12.38
Bull $13.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4386 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$12.21
$12.97
$14.50
76
Owner Earnings
$14.07
$22.60
$35.86
75
EPV
$11.90
$13.70
$15.26
74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$14.07
$22.60
$35.86
75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$8.01
$30.37
$41.11
64
Lynch FV
$7.36
$10.52
$13.68
61
PEG = 1.0
$7.36
$10.52
$13.68
57
EPV
$11.90
$13.70
$15.26
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$19.44
$25.92
$32.40
63
P/S Multiple
$13.92
$18.56
$23.20
58
P/B Multiple
$15.02
$20.03
$25.04
55
EV/EBIT
$23.65
$31.37
$39.09
66
EV/EBITDA
$16.71
$22.12
$27.53
67
EV/Revenue
$13.48
$19.05
$24.61
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.45
$9.99
$14.90
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$12.21
$12.97
$14.50
76
ROIC Compounder
$11.90
$13.70
$15.74
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$13.86
$19.79
$25.73
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.5% vs −6.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
PSMMF screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $139.40 | $240.55 | +73% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $118.50 | $189.71 | +60% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $82.15 | $126.89 | +54% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,235 | $8,123 | +30% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $136.51 | $233.88 | +71% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $193.94 | $213.33 | +10% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $87.72 | $96.49 | +10% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $557.28 | $613.01 | +10% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $64.98 | $105.56 | +62% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $135.79 | $182.05 | +34% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Persimmon Plc (PSMMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.38 versus a price of $15.24, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PSMMF?
Our model-based fair value for Persimmon Plc, is $12.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.24.
What is the quality score of PSMMF?
Persimmon Plc, has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.82, optimistic scenario $13.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Persimmon Plc, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.38, about −19% upside versus a price of $15.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.82, optimistic scenario $13.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Persimmon Plc, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £3.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Persimmon Plc, pay a dividend?
Persimmon Plc, currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Persimmon Plc, it is $12.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $15.24. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Persimmon Plc, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PSMMF trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.24, fair value $12.38, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PSMMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.38). For Persimmon Plc, the two are $2.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Persimmon Plc, worth?
The market values Persimmon Plc, at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $15.24; our models calculate a fair value of $12.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PSMMF?
Our models span a range for Persimmon Plc,: cautious scenario $11.82, base $12.38, optimistic $13.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $15.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PSMMF?
Persimmon Plc, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of PSMMF?
The PEG ratio of Persimmon Plc, is 0.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Persimmon Plc, (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PSMMF from its 52-week high?
Persimmon Plc, trades at $15.24, about 20% below its 52-week high of $18.95 and 8% above the low of $14.16 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Persimmon Plc,?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Persimmon Plc, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $15.24, calculated fair value $12.38 (−19%), Quality Score 58/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PSMMF calculated?
We run Persimmon Plc, through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Persimmon Plc, itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $15.24. Our model-based fair value is $12.38, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Persimmon Plc, right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF) come from?
Earnings per share at Persimmon Plc, grew −7.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −6.4 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Persimmon Plc,
How large is the market capitalisation of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The market capitalisation of Persimmon Plc, is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Persimmon Plc, is 0.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Earnings per share at Persimmon Plc, are $1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The dividend yield of Persimmon Plc, is 3.9% (payout 50.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The net margin of Persimmon Plc, is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Persimmon Plc, is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Persimmon Plc, is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
The operating margin of Persimmon Plc, is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Revenue at Persimmon Plc, is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Persimmon Plc (PSMMF)?
Earnings per share at Persimmon Plc, are growing +18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Persimmon Plc (PSMMF) generate?
The free cash flow of Persimmon Plc, is −£12.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Persimmon Plc (PSMMF) hold?
Persimmon Plc, holds more cash than debt, £100M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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