PUMA SE (PUM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €4.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €47.85 to €10.57 (−77.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€15.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (€5.33 to €15.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €15.46 – €106.70 · fair‑value band €5.33 – €15.93 · the €27.17 price screens above the €10.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
PUMA SE (PUM) currently trades at €27.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.57, implying the stock looks roughly 61.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PUMA SE generated revenue of €7.2B at a net margin of -8.6%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -27.3%. Net debt stands at €2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.33 (bear case) to €15.93 (bull case); at €27.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -61%, PUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€9.23) versus Multiples (€1.86). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PUMA SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of sports and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, North America, Latin America, Greater China, Rest of Asia-Pacific, and internationally.
Full company description
PUMA SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of sports and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, North America, Latin America, Greater China, Rest of Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers sports lifestyle products for football, handball, rugby, cricket, volleyball, track and field, motor sports, golf, and basketball. The company also issues licenses to independent partners to design, develop, manufacture, and sell glasses, safety shoes, workwear, and gaming accessories. It sells its products under the PUMA and Cobra Golf brands through retail stores, factory outlets, and online stores, as well as wholesale and retail trade. PUMA SE was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Herzogenaurach, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PUMA SE reported revenue of €7.3B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€644M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +12.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PUM screens 61% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PUMA (XTRA:PUM) Sees Improvement Ahead Despite Sales Drop And Confirms Outlook
- Puma SE (PMMAF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Reset Drives Margin Gains Amid ...
- Puma Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Puma Exploration's Inaugural Drilling Confirms High-Grade Gold System at McKenzie
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $44.37 | $35.63 | -20% |
| adidas AG 1ADS | €165.00 | €65.71 | -60% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $106.49 | $125.16 | +18% |
| On Holding ONON | $38.20 | $17.64 | -54% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.11 | ¥13.03 | +8% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $44.36 | $44.14 | -0% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $138.91 | $203.65 | +47% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥31.10 | ¥54.71 | +76% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $43.26 | $11.69 | -73% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$14.18 | HK$4.04 | -72% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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