Steven Madden, Ltd (SHOO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.1B

A solid business, but screening 57% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($15.57 to $28.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.95 – $49.07 · fair‑value band $15.57 – $28.60 · the $48.58 price screens above the $21.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Steven Madden, Ltd (SHOO) currently trades at $48.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.04, implying the stock looks roughly 56.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Steven Madden, Ltd generated revenue of $2.6B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 18.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at $374M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $15.57 (bear case) to $28.60 (bull case); at $48.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -57%, SHOO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($21.15) versus Economic Profit ($4.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel in the United States and internationally. It operates through Wholesale Footwear, Wholesale Accessories/Apparel, Direct-to- Consumer, and Licensing segments.

Full company description

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel in the United States and internationally. It operates through Wholesale Footwear, Wholesale Accessories/Apparel, Direct-to- Consumer, and Licensing segments. The company designs, sources, and markets various products, including dress shoes, boots, booties, fashion sneakers, sandals, and casual shoes; and handbags, apparel, small leather goods, belts, soft accessories, fashion scarves, wraps, gifting, and other accessories. It also engages in the sale of footwear, handbags, apparel, and other accessories. In addition, the company is involved in the licensing of the Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, and Betsey Johnson trademarks for the sale of select apparel, accessory, home categories, and other non-core products. It sells its products under the Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger London, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Blondo, Carvela, Anthony Thomas Melillo (ATM), and Anne Klein brands. The company distributes its products in the wholesale channel through department stores, mass merchants, off-price retailers, shoe chains, online retailers, national chains, specialty retailers, independent stores, and clubs, as well as through direct-to-consumer channel, which includes company-operated retail stores and e-commerce websites. It markets its products through email, social media, influencer partnerships, print, experiential events, and public relations. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Steven Madden, Ltd reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $44.7M in FY2025, compounding −30.4%/yr from FY2021.

SHOO screens 57% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →

Peer Group

Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.