Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Deckers Outdoor Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.80 – $223.11 · fair‑value band $105.79 – $286.07 · the $78.43 price screens below the $172.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. The company offers footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand; footwear, such as running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle shoes, as well as apparel and accessories under the HOKA brand; and sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name. It also provides a casual footwear fashion line under the Koolaburra brand name; and footwear products under the AHNU brand name. The company sells its products through domestic and international retailers, international distributors, and directly to its consumers through its direct-to-consumer business, which includes e-commerce websites and retail stores. Deckers Outdoor Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Goleta, California.
Stock analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) currently trades at $78.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $172.88, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $182.19 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $78.43 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $71.99, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $105.79 (bear) to $286.07 (bull), the price of $78.43 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2026 versus $3.2B in FY2022, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2026, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $14.8B · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) $7.02 · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 40.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.1% · Operating margin 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 59% fair-value upside, at 120%, DECK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $105.79Fair Value $172.88Bull $286.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 28%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 23%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Deckers Outdoor Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+46% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)41% · Top 25%
Return on assets22% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
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Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $172.88 versus a price of $78.43, about +120% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DECK?
Our model-based fair value for Deckers Outdoor Corporation is $172.88 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $78.43.
What is the quality score of DECK?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $172.88 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $105.79, optimistic scenario $286.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $172.88, about +120% upside versus a price of $78.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $105.79, optimistic scenario $286.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deckers Outdoor Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -5.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DECK use?
Our models discount Deckers Outdoor Corporation at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deckers Outdoor Corporation that is -5.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Deckers Outdoor Corporation grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies -5.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deckers Outdoor Corporation (-5.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.60 %: that much free cash flow Deckers Outdoor Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deckers Outdoor Corporation it is $172.88 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $78.43. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, DECK trades below its calculated fair value: price $78.43, fair value $172.88, a gap of about +120% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DECK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($78.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($172.88). For Deckers Outdoor Corporation the two are $94.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deckers Outdoor Corporation worth?
The market values Deckers Outdoor Corporation at about $14.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $78.43; our models calculate a fair value of $172.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DECK?
Our models span a range for Deckers Outdoor Corporation: cautious scenario $105.79, base $172.88, optimistic $286.07 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $78.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DECK?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $172.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 5.9, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of DECK?
The PEG ratio of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 40.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DECK from its 52-week high?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at $78.43, about 38% below its 52-week high of $126.50 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $172.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deckers Outdoor Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, On Holding, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, Birkenstock Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $78.43, calculated fair value $172.88 (+120%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DECK calculated?
We run Deckers Outdoor Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $172.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Deckers Outdoor Corporation currently trades 120 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $78.43. Our model-based fair value is $172.88, about +120% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deckers Outdoor Corporation right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (84/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($105.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($105.79 to $286.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) come from?
Earnings per share at Deckers Outdoor Corporation grew +25.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.3 %, EBIT margin +8.5 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Deckers Outdoor Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The market capitalisation of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is $14.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 2.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Earnings per share at Deckers Outdoor Corporation are $7.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The net margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 18.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 40.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 29.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The operating margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Revenue at Deckers Outdoor Corporation is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Earnings per share at Deckers Outdoor Corporation are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) hold?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation holds more cash than debt, $1.5B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026