Nike Inc (NKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nike Inc stock $34.42, price $40.49, that is 15.0% below the price, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 71/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
4.1% dividend yield · Sustainable
Broad data
Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(6/15)
Moderate moat64/100
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $1.6M (6M)
Fair value $34.42 · Overvalued (−15.0%)
Weak Growth(revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr in USD)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Guidance for revenue declines and restructuring with further job cuts🚩AI shopping agents bypass brand preference🚩Specialist rivals erode market share🚩Tariffs raise costs on key supply countries
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $33.87 – $161.97 · fair‑value band $21.20 – $48.44 · the $40.49 price screens above the $34.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
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The company offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks.
It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities, as well as various plastic products to other manufacturers; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos.
In addition, the company offers consumer services and experiences, including sport focused events and activations; fitness and activity apps; sport, fitness, and wellness content; and digital services and features in retail stores.
It sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other wholesale accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, independent distributors, licensees, sales representatives, and digital platforms.
The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in May 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
Stock analysis
Nike Inc (NKE) currently trades at $40.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.42, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $40.93 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the $40.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.23, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $21.20 (bear) to $48.44 (bull), the price of $40.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Nike Inc reported revenue of $46.4B in FY2026 versus $46.7B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.1B in FY2026, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $60.0B Large · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) $2.08 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 21.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at −15%, NKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.20Fair Value $34.42Bull$48.44
Price $40.49 · Downside -15.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1905 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.6M and none bought.
SaleVenkatesh AlagirisamyEVP: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER2× since Aug 5, 2026: 4,561 shares, avg. $38.37$175,017Sep 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert LeinwandEVP: Chief Legal Officer3× since Feb 12, 2026: 13,532 shares, avg. $54.41$736,228Sep 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePhilip McCartneyEVP: CHIEF INN,PROD&DSG OFCR3× since Jun 12, 2026: 20,481 shares, avg. $44.99$921,431Sep 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAmy MontagnePRESIDENT, NIKE4,867 shares at $42.05$204,657Aug 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMatthew FriendEVP: CFO2,463 shares at $41.60$102,461Aug 5, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyElliott HillPRESIDENT & CEO, Director2× since Dec 29, 2025: 40,048 shares, avg. $49.98$2.0MApr 13, 2026
BuyTimothy D CookDirector2× since Dec 22, 2025: 75,000 shares, avg. $53.46$4.0MApr 10, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJohn W Rogers JrDirector4,000 shares at $43.34$173,360Apr 9, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyRobert Holmes SwanDirector2× since Dec 22, 2025: 20,472 shares, avg. $48.85$1.0MApr 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark G ParkerEXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, Director86,078 shares at $64.80$5.6MNov 14, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 28 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.0% vs −0.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.8% a year for the price and −2.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from brand strength and operations stands against mixed alignment signals and thin insider data.
Main risk: AI agents that select and purchase products for consumers could steer buyers toward rivals with better fit or price such as Hoka or On, reducing Nike's visibility and sales if shoppers do not specifically request the brand.
Bull case: Nike could integrate deeply with major AI platforms and leverage its brand strength plus performance innovations to remain the default choice for agents while accelerating its geographic reorganization and Pace efficiency program to outpace rivals.
Bear case: If AI agents favor cheaper specialists and tariffs persist without full mitigation, Nike's slower segments in sportswear and China could drag further, eroding volumes and margins as contract manufacturing costs rise and market share fragments.
Nike is cutting back on Jordan Retro and Dunk volumes to restore scarcity and support full-price selling while shifting emphasis to performance categories under its Sport Offense approach. This comes alongside guidance for another year of high-single-digit revenue declines and a restructuring expected to deliver savings but also further job cuts starting next year. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the push for cleaner distribution and fresher performance products outweigh the near-term volume pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nike Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NKE
Frequently asked questions
Is Nike Inc (NKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.42 versus a price of $40.49, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NKE?
Our model-based fair value for Nike Inc is $34.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.49.
What is the quality score of NKE?
Nike Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nike Inc (NKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.20, optimistic scenario $48.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nike Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.42, about 15% lower versus a price of $40.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.20, optimistic scenario $48.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nike Inc (NKE)?
Nike Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $45.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Nike Inc pay a dividend?
Nike Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nike Inc (NKE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nike Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NKE use?
Our models discount Nike Inc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nike Inc that is +14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nike Inc (NKE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nike Inc grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nike Inc (NKE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nike Inc (+14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.64 %: that much free cash flow Nike Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nike Inc (NKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nike Inc it is $34.42 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $40.49. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nike Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, NKE trades above its calculated fair value: price $40.49, fair value $34.42, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.42). For Nike Inc the two are $6.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nike Inc worth?
The market values Nike Inc at about $60.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $40.49; our models calculate a fair value of $34.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NKE?
Our models span a range for Nike Inc: cautious scenario $21.20, base $34.42, optimistic $48.44 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $40.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NKE?
Nike Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2024, FY2026 ex one-offs: 31.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 4.0, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NKE?
The PEG ratio of Nike Inc is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nike Inc (NKE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nike Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 21.6%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NKE from its 52-week high?
Nike Inc trades at $40.49, about 39% below its 52-week high of $66.04 and 20% above the low of $33.87 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nike Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value adidas AG, On Holding, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nike Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $40.49, calculated fair value $34.42 (−15%), Quality Score 71/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NKE calculated?
We run Nike Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Nike Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $40.49. Our model-based fair value is $34.42, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nike Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (71/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.20 to $48.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nike Inc (NKE) come from?
Earnings per share at Nike Inc grew +2.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nike Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The market capitalisation of Nike Inc is $60.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nike Inc is 1.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nike Inc (NKE)?
Earnings per share at Nike Inc are $2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The dividend yield of Nike Inc is 4.1% (payout 78.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The net margin of Nike Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nike Inc is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nike Inc (NKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nike Inc is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nike Inc (NKE)?
The operating margin of Nike Inc is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nike Inc (NKE)?
Revenue at Nike Inc is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nike Inc (NKE)?
Earnings per share at Nike Inc are growing −2.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nike Inc (NKE) carry?
The net debt of Nike Inc is $3.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026