On Holding (ONON) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.5B
On Holding
ONON · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $13.57 to $17.64 (+30.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $16.00 – $63.62 · fair‑value band $13.23 – $22.05 · the $37.34 price screens above the $17.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
On Holding (ONON) currently trades at $37.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.64, implying the stock looks roughly 52.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, On Holding generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $439M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.23 (bear case) to $22.05 (bull case); at $37.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -53%, ONON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($29.40) versus Asset-Based ($3.64). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific.
Full company description
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
On Holding reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $725M in FY2021, a compound +41.2%/yr. Reported net income was $195M in FY2025.
ONON screens 53% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Peter Lynch Had a Keen Eye for Spotting Ten-Bagger Stocks. Here's Why On Holding Checks Every Box.
- On Holding (ONON) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $44.37 | $35.63 | -20% |
| adidas AG 1ADS | €184.40 | €81.86 | -56% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $106.49 | $125.16 | +18% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥11.59 | ¥13.03 | +12% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $44.36 | $44.14 | -0% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $138.91 | $203.65 | +47% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥31.10 | ¥54.71 | +76% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €29.31 | €10.57 | -64% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $43.26 | $11.69 | -73% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$14.18 | HK$4.04 | -72% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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