Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.2B
Birkenstock Holding
BIRK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $41.67 to $44.14 (+5.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −13.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 15% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($24.74 to $56.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $24.74 (bear) to $56.51 (bull), base $44.14. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 71/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range $31.19 – $63.57 · fair‑value band $24.74 – $56.51 · the $38.45 price screens below the $44.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) currently trades at $38.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.14, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Birkenstock Holding generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 7.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. Net debt stands at $980M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.74 (bear case) to $56.51 (bull case); at $38.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at 15%, BIRK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($54.10) versus Asset-Based ($9.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories.
Full company description
Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. The company was formerly known as Birkenstock Group Limited. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc operates as a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Birkenstock Holding reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $962M in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was $348M in FY2025, compounding +31.5%/yr from FY2021.
Watch BIRK: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Birkenstock Stock?
- Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) Walks Tall on Margins
- What Makes Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) an Attractive Bet?
- Stock movers after hours: BIRK, EL, AMZN
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $44.37 | $35.63 | -20% |
| adidas AG 1ADS | €165.00 | €65.71 | -60% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $106.49 | $125.16 | +18% |
| On Holding ONON | $38.20 | $17.64 | -54% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.11 | ¥13.03 | +8% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $138.91 | $203.65 | +47% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥31.10 | ¥54.71 | +76% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €29.31 | €10.57 | -64% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $43.26 | $11.69 | -73% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$14.18 | HK$4.04 | -72% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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