Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Birkenstock Holding plc $45.26, price $31.42, upside +44.1%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range $30.01 – $63.57 · fair‑value band $26.80 – $80.03 · the $31.42 price screens below the $45.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories.
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Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. The company was formerly known as Birkenstock Group Limited. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc operates as a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.
Stock analysis
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) currently trades at $31.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.26, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $54.35 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $31.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.92, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $26.80 (bear) to $80.03 (bull), the price of $31.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Birkenstock Holding plc reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €962M in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was €348M in FY2025, compounding +31.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.2B · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 2.33 · EPS (TTM) $2.24 · Net margin 16.6% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 26.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 115% fair-value upside, at 44%, BIRK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $26.80Fair Value $45.26Bull $80.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+26.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 26%
2025 sits 83% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and +9.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Birkenstock Holding plc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+44% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.00× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.26 versus a price of $31.42, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BIRK?
Our model-based fair value for Birkenstock Holding plc is $45.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.42.
What is the quality score of BIRK?
Birkenstock Holding plc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.80, optimistic scenario $80.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Birkenstock Holding plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.26, about +44% upside versus a price of $31.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $26.80, optimistic scenario $80.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Birkenstock Holding plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Birkenstock Holding plc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BIRK use?
Our models discount Birkenstock Holding plc at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Birkenstock Holding plc that is +13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Birkenstock Holding plc grew +23.6 % a year. The price currently implies +13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Birkenstock Holding plc (+13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.92 %: that much free cash flow Birkenstock Holding plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Birkenstock Holding plc it is $45.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $31.42. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Birkenstock Holding plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BIRK trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.42, fair value $45.26, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BIRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.26). For Birkenstock Holding plc the two are $13.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Birkenstock Holding plc worth?
The market values Birkenstock Holding plc at about $8.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $31.42; our models calculate a fair value of $45.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BIRK?
Our models span a range for Birkenstock Holding plc: cautious scenario $26.80, base $45.26, optimistic $80.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $31.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BIRK?
Birkenstock Holding plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 3.0, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BIRK?
The PEG ratio of Birkenstock Holding plc is 1.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Birkenstock Holding plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BIRK from its 52-week high?
Birkenstock Holding plc trades at $31.42, about 36% below its 52-week high of $48.97 and 5% above the low of $30.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Birkenstock Holding plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, On Holding, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Birkenstock Holding plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $31.42, calculated fair value $45.26 (+44%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BIRK calculated?
We run Birkenstock Holding plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Birkenstock Holding plc currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $31.42. Our model-based fair value is $45.26, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Birkenstock Holding plc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide ($26.80 to $80.03). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Birkenstock Holding plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The market capitalisation of Birkenstock Holding plc is $8.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Birkenstock Holding plc is 2.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Earnings per share at Birkenstock Holding plc are $2.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The net margin of Birkenstock Holding plc is 16.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Birkenstock Holding plc is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Birkenstock Holding plc is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The operating margin of Birkenstock Holding plc is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Revenue at Birkenstock Holding plc is growing +7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Earnings per share at Birkenstock Holding plc are growing −20.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) carry?
The net debt of Birkenstock Holding plc is $980M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026