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ADTRAN Holdings (QH9) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ADTRAN Holdings €11.60, price €6.29, upside +84.4%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
ADTRAN Holdings
QH9 · XETRAClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value €11.60 · Strongly undervalued (+84.4%)
!Quality 51/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.13 – €24.16 · fair‑value band €6.59 – €17.38 · the €6.29 price screens below the €11.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support.
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ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms, software, systems, and services in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Network Solutions, and Services & Support. It offers residential gateways; ethernet passive optical network ONUs; gigabit passive optical network/XGS-PON ONTs; routers, and switches; edge cloud; carrier ethernet network interface devices; Optical Line Terminals; Packet Aggregation, Copper Access, and Oscilloquartz; optical transport and engine solutions; infrastructure monitoring solution; and training, professional, software, and managed services. The company provides various software, such as Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E. It serves large, medium, and small service providers; alternative service providers, such as utilities, municipalities and fiber overbuilders; cable/MSOs; and SMBs and distributed enterprises. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.
Stock analysis
ADTRAN Holdings (QH9) currently trades at €6.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.60, implying the stock looks roughly 45.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €13.84 per share, and 9 of the 10 models we run sit above the €6.29 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €7.28, and 1 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €6.59 (bear) to €17.38 (bull), the price of €6.29 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ADTRAN Holdings reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $563M in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$45.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €827M · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) €−0.3400 · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity −4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.8% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at 84%, QH9 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.59
Fair Value €11.60
Bull €17.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€7.60
€13.84
€23.56
78
Growth DCF
€7.43
€12.85
€20.73
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
€8.54
€16.33
€26.15
73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€7.60
€13.84
€23.56
78
5Y Revenue Exit
€5.69
€10.38
€16.68
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€8.54
€16.33
€26.15
73
10Y Revenue Exit
€6.13
€10.62
€17.37
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€8.04
€14.62
€24.70
66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
€10.05
€13.85
€17.65
67
EV/Revenue
€4.70
€7.28
€9.87
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€0.8000
€1.07
€1.60
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€7.43
€12.85
€20.73
77
Rev-Margin DCF
€5.69
€10.32
€16.39
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Profitability
27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
89
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
73
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.9% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price and +5.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.4%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $107.63 | $118.39 | +10% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥61.00 | ¥13.99 | −77% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥895.86 | ¥342.18 | −62% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥435.00 | ¥289.12 | −34% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $445.97 | $249.04 | −44% |
| Nokia Oyj NOKIA | €9.19 | €3.15 | −66% |
| Ciena Corporation CIEN | $356.91 | $48.70 | −86% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥267.93 | ¥87.34 | −67% |
| Ubiquiti Inc UI | $609.64 | $670.60 | +10% |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited 6869 | HK$186.50 | HK$32.66 | −82% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ADTRAN Holdings (QH9) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.60 versus a price of €6.29, about +84% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of QH9?
Our model-based fair value for ADTRAN Holdings is €11.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.29.
What is the quality score of QH9?
ADTRAN Holdings has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.59, optimistic scenario €17.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ADTRAN Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.60, about +84% upside versus a price of €6.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.59, optimistic scenario €17.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
ADTRAN Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ADTRAN Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of QH9 use?
Our models discount ADTRAN Holdings at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.45, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ADTRAN Holdings that is +4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ADTRAN Holdings (QH9) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ADTRAN Holdings grew +16.4 % a year. The price currently implies +4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ADTRAN Holdings (+4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.69 %: that much free cash flow ADTRAN Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ADTRAN Holdings it is €11.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €6.29. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ADTRAN Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, QH9 trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.29, fair value €11.60, a gap of about +84% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of QH9?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.60). For ADTRAN Holdings the two are €5.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ADTRAN Holdings worth?
The market values ADTRAN Holdings at about €827M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €6.29; our models calculate a fair value of €11.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about QH9?
Our models span a range for ADTRAN Holdings: cautious scenario €6.59, base €11.60, optimistic €17.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €6.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is QH9 from its 52-week high?
ADTRAN Holdings trades at €6.29, about 60% below its 52-week high of €15.89 and 5% above the low of €6.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ADTRAN Holdings?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ADTRAN Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €6.29, calculated fair value €11.60 (+84%), Quality Score 51/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of QH9 calculated?
We run ADTRAN Holdings through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ADTRAN Holdings currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €6.29. Our model-based fair value is €11.60, about +84% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ADTRAN Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (€6.59 to €17.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of ADTRAN Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The market capitalisation of ADTRAN Holdings is €827M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ADTRAN Holdings is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
Earnings per share at ADTRAN Holdings are €−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The net margin of ADTRAN Holdings is −4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ADTRAN Holdings is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ADTRAN Holdings is −5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
The operating margin of ADTRAN Holdings is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
Revenue at ADTRAN Holdings is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ADTRAN Holdings (QH9)?
Earnings per share at ADTRAN Holdings are growing −60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ADTRAN Holdings (QH9) carry?
The net debt of ADTRAN Holdings is $122M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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