Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.4B
Q2 Holdings
QTWO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $16.62 to $14.12 (−15.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.87 – $110.85 · fair‑value band $10.59 – $17.65 · the $62.81 price screens above the $14.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Q2 Holdings (QTWO) currently trades at $62.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.12, implying the stock looks roughly 77.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Q2 Holdings generated revenue of $822M at a net margin of 9.0%. Revenue grew 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $21.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.59 (bear case) to $17.65 (bull case); at $62.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -78%, QTWO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($63.89) versus Asset-Based ($7.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Q2 Holdings, Inc. provides digital solutions to financial institutions, financial technology companies, FinTechs, and alternative finance companies (Alt-FIs) in the United States.
Full company description
Q2 Holdings, Inc. provides digital solutions to financial institutions, financial technology companies, FinTechs, and alternative finance companies (Alt-FIs) in the United States. The company offers Digital Banking Platform, an end-to-end digital banking platform that supports its financial institution customers in their delivery of retail, SMB, and commercial functionalities across digital channels; and risk and fraud solutions that are designed to support financial institutions' efforts to protect end users, comply with regulatory requirements and manage fraud risk efficiently. It also provides Q2 Innovation Studio, an application program interface and software development kit based open technology platform that allows financial institution customers, FinTechs, and other partners to deploy customized experiences and financial services to end users; and Helix, a cloud-native, real-time core processing platform that combines the services and functionality for companies and financial institutions. In addition, the company offers digital lending and relationship pricing solutions that support financial institutions, FinTechs and Alt-FIs in managing lending workflows, pricing strategies and customer relationships across commercial and consumer use cases, as well as offers loans, deposits and fee-based products. The company was formerly known as CBG Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Q2 Holdings, Inc. in March 2013. Q2 Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Q2 Holdings reported revenue of $795M in FY2025 versus $499M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $52.0M in FY2025.
QTWO screens 78% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Lifted Full Year Guidance, Is It Still A Bargain?
- Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Moves to Strong Buy: Rationale Behind the Upgrade
- QTWO Q2 Deep Dive: AI Product Demand, Fraud Solutions, and Subscription Growth Stand Out
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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