Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Quiñenco SA CLP 4,127, price CLP 4,920, upside -16.1%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 712.30 CLP – 4,920 CLP · fair‑value band 2,889 CLP – 5,365 CLP · the 4,920 CLP price screens above the 4,127 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Quiñenco SA, a business conglomerate, operates in the industrial and financial services sectors in Chile and internationally. It provides banking and financial products such as loans and deposits to individuals and large corporations through traditional channels, web platforms, and mobile applications.
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Quiñenco SA, a business conglomerate, operates in the industrial and financial services sectors in Chile and internationally. It provides banking and financial products such as loans and deposits to individuals and large corporations through traditional channels, web platforms, and mobile applications. The company produces and sells beverages, including beer, soft drinks, mineral and bottled waters, nectars, wine and pisco, as well as non-alcoholic beverages, spirits, ciders, and sparkling wines; and manufactures and sells cables. In addition, the company distributes fuels and lubricants to transport, mining, and power generation sectors; operates convenience store and service stations under the Shell license, and 224 upa!, up¡ta and upa! market. Further, it offers containerized freight transport services; and towage and air logistics services. The company was formerly known as Forestal Quiñenco S.A. and changed its name to Quiñenco SA in October 1996. Quiñenco SA was incorporated in 1957 and is based in Santiago, Chile.
Stock analysis
Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO) currently trades at 4,920 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,127 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 8,230 CLP per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the 4,920 CLP price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 2,627 CLP, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 2,889 CLP (bear) to 5,365 CLP (bull), the price of 4,920 CLP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Quiñenco SA reported revenue of 7.9T CLP in FY2025 versus 6.4T CLP in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 680B CLP in FY2025, compounding −22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.2T CLP (≈ $8.5B) · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) 405.47 CLP · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 29.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at −16%, QUINENCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2,889 CLPFair Value 4,127 CLPBull 5,365 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (297.72 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Quiñenco SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/QUINENCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4,127 CLP versus a price of 4,920 CLP, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of QUINENCO?
Our model-based fair value for Quiñenco SA is 4,127 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,920 CLP.
What is the quality score of QUINENCO?
Quiñenco SA has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4,127 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,889 CLP, optimistic scenario 5,365 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Quiñenco SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4,127 CLP, about −16% upside versus a price of 4,920 CLP (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,889 CLP, optimistic scenario 5,365 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Quiñenco SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.9T CLP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Quiñenco SA would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of QUINENCO use?
Our models discount Quiñenco SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Quiñenco SA that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Quiñenco SA grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Quiñenco SA (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.92 %: that much free cash flow Quiñenco SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Quiñenco SA it is 4,127 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4,920 CLP. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Quiñenco SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, QUINENCO trades above its calculated fair value: price 4,920 CLP, fair value 4,127 CLP, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of QUINENCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,920 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4,127 CLP). For Quiñenco SA the two are 793.00 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Quiñenco SA worth?
The market values Quiñenco SA at about 8.2T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4,920 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 4,127 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about QUINENCO?
Our models span a range for Quiñenco SA: cautious scenario 2,889 CLP, base 4,127 CLP, optimistic 5,365 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4,920 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of QUINENCO?
Quiñenco SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4,127 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Quiñenco SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is QUINENCO from its 52-week high?
Quiñenco SA trades at 4,920 CLP, at its 52-week high of 4,920 CLP and 33% above the low of 3,705 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4,127 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Quiñenco SA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Quiñenco SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4,920 CLP, calculated fair value 4,127 CLP (−16%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of QUINENCO calculated?
We run Quiñenco SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4,127 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Quiñenco SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 4,920 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 4,127 CLP, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Quiñenco SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (2,889 CLP to 5,365 CLP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Quiñenco SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The market capitalisation of Quiñenco SA is 8.2T CLP (≈ $8.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Quiñenco SA is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Earnings per share at Quiñenco SA are 405.47 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The net margin of Quiñenco SA is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Quiñenco SA is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Quiñenco SA is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
The operating margin of Quiñenco SA is 29.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Revenue at Quiñenco SA is growing +25.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO)?
Earnings per share at Quiñenco SA are growing −53.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Quiñenco SA (QUINENCO) carry?
The net debt of Quiñenco SA is 11.6T CLP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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