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Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Rubrik, Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US7811541090

RI Rubrik, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 18, 2026

Rubrik, Inc.

RBRK · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $28.98 · Strongly overvalued (−73%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -20.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 15/100
✓Insider activity 66/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$107.83 $28.65 Fair Value $28.98 Apr 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

29‑month range $28.65 – $107.83 · fair‑value band $13.18 – $45.54 · the $106.71 price screens above the $28.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Rubrik, Inc. provides data security solutions to individuals and businesses worldwide.

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Rubrik, Inc. provides data security solutions to individuals and businesses worldwide. The company offers enterprise data protection, unstructured data protection, cloud data protection, SaaS data protection solutions, and identity provider services protection; data threat analytics; data security posture; identity recovery and resilience services; and cyber recovery solutions. It also provides RUBY, an AI agent for cyber resilience designed to scale data security operations through automation; SENTRYAI, a proprietary AI deep learning-based platform for system health monitoring; and RUBRIK UNIVERSITY, which includes instructor-led training with hands-on labs, on-demand e-learning courses, and certification exams, as well as offers cloud services. It serves financial, retail, trade, transportation, energy, industrial, healthcare and life science, education, technology, media, communications, services, and public sectors. Rubrik, Inc. has strategic collaboration with MEDITECH to offer native cyber resilience to MEDITECH self-hosted cloud and on-premises solutions. Rubrik, Inc. was formerly known as Scaledata, Inc. and changed its name to Rubrik, Inc. in October 2014. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Palo Alto, California.

Stock analysis

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) currently trades at $106.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.98, implying the stock looks roughly 268.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $37.01 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $106.71 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $15.79, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $13.18 (bear) to $45.54 (bull), the price of $106.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Rubrik, Inc. reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2026 versus $506M in FY2022, a compound +27.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$349M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $21.0B · P/S ratio 12.9 · EPS (TTM) $−1.78 · Net margin −26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −41.9% · Operating margin −21.8% · Revenue (TTM) $1.3B · Revenue growth (YoY) +46.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 153% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −73%, RBRK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.18 Fair Value $28.98 Bull $45.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $21.82 $37.01 $85.38 71
Growth DCF $20.25 $44.78 $84.98 71
5Y Revenue Exit $14.17 $27.31 $54.75 66
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $21.82 $37.01 $85.38 71
5Y Revenue Exit $14.17 $27.31 $54.75 66
10Y Revenue Exit $16.09 $39.42 $53.80 63
Multiples
EV/Revenue $9.66 $15.79 $21.93 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $20.25 $44.78 $84.98 71
Rev-Margin DCF $16.10 $31.92 $65.08 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 92
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 22
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−53.9% (2021) → −26.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+24.9%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+21.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+19.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.6%
Projected 2031 (sales)+14.2%

RBRK screens 268% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 12.72× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 71.6× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $493.48 $542.83 +10%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $140.35 $117.84 −16%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $172.56 $42.96 −75%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $375.09 $114.50 −69%
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Fortinet, Inc FTNT $172.37 $164.92 −4%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $378.47 $177.06 −53%
Block, Inc XYZ A$109.44 A$141.48 +29%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $83.35 $71.79 −14%
Twilio Inc TWLO $238.88 $59.44 −75%

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Rubrik, Inc. · Fair Value
$28.98 −268%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rubrik, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RBRK

Frequently asked questions

Is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.98 versus a price of $106.71, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RBRK?
Our model-based fair value for Rubrik, Inc. is $28.98 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $106.71.
What is the quality score of RBRK?
Rubrik, Inc. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.98 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.18, optimistic scenario $45.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rubrik, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.98, about −73% upside versus a price of $106.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.18, optimistic scenario $45.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
Rubrik, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rubrik, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +31.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.7 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RBRK use?
Our models discount Rubrik, Inc. at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rubrik, Inc. that is +31.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rubrik, Inc. grew +27.7 % a year. The price currently implies +31.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rubrik, Inc. (+31.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.21 %: that much free cash flow Rubrik, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rubrik, Inc. it is $28.98 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $106.71. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rubrik, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, RBRK trades above its calculated fair value: price $106.71, fair value $28.98, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RBRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($106.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.98). For Rubrik, Inc. the two are $77.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rubrik, Inc. worth?
The market values Rubrik, Inc. at about $21.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $106.71; our models calculate a fair value of $28.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RBRK?
Our models span a range for Rubrik, Inc.: cautious scenario $13.18, base $28.98, optimistic $45.54 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $106.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RBRK from its 52-week high?
Rubrik, Inc. trades at $106.71, about 4% below its 52-week high of $103.00 and 153% above the low of $42.25 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rubrik, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rubrik, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $106.71, calculated fair value $28.98 (−73%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RBRK calculated?
We run Rubrik, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Rubrik, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $106.71. Our model-based fair value is $28.98, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rubrik, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($13.18 to $45.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Rubrik, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
The market capitalisation of Rubrik, Inc. is $21.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rubrik, Inc. is 12.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
Earnings per share at Rubrik, Inc. are $−1.78. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
The net margin of Rubrik, Inc. is −26.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rubrik, Inc. is −41.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
The operating margin of Rubrik, Inc. is −21.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)?
Revenue at Rubrik, Inc. is growing +46.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) carry?
The net debt of Rubrik, Inc. is $751M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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