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RFA Financial Inc. (RFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of RFA Financial Inc. stock C$9.07, price C$22.74, that is 60.1% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate CA

RF RFA Financial Inc. logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

RFA Financial Inc.

RFA · TO
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 60% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +57% vs. a year ago.
Quality 42/100
Fair value C$9.07 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −13.6 %/yr in CAD)
Loss-making · -67.1% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 34/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$35.35 C$15.32 Fair Value C$9.07 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$15.32 – C$35.35 · fair‑value band C$5.22 – C$15.70 · the C$22.74 price screens above the C$9.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

RFA Financial Inc. is a diversified commercial real estate investment trust and is an unincorporated closed-end real estate investment trust, created under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Manitoba.

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The REIT was created pursuant to the Declaration of Trust dated November 8, 2004, as most recently amended and restated on December 19, 2021. Certain of the REIT's securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The REIT's common units trade under the symbol AX.UN and the REIT's preferred units trade under the symbols AX.PR.E and AX.PR.I. The REIT's common units also trade in the United States on the OTCQX Best Market, under the symbol ARESF. As at November 14, 2025, there were 95,966,473 common units, 7,108,165 preferred units, 736,465 restricted units and 591,279 deferred units of Artis outstanding.

RFA Financial Inc. was founded in 2004 and is based in Winnipeg, Canada.

Stock analysis

RFA Financial Inc. (RFA) currently trades at C$22.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.07, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of C$18.40 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the C$22.74 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at C$10.67, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: C$5.22 (bear) to C$15.70 (bull), the price of C$22.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

RFA Financial Inc. reported revenue of C$240M in FY2025 versus C$419M in FY2021, a compound −13.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$156M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$1.1B (≈ $751M) Small · P/S ratio 3.83 · EPS (TTM) C$−5.78 · Net margin −67.1% · Return on equity −13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 32.3% · Revenue (TTM) C$289M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −60%, RFA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$5.22 Fair Value C$9.07 Bull C$15.70
Price C$22.74 · Downside -60.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF C$10.42 C$18.55 C$32.92 74
Growth DCF C$11.35 C$19.15 C$31.88 73
Rev-Margin DCF C$3.95 C$10.45 C$18.47 66
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$10.42 C$18.55 C$32.92 74
5Y Revenue Exit C$3.95 C$9.88 C$18.47 65
10Y Revenue Exit C$6.14 C$10.67 C$15.38 63
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a n/a C$3.75 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$13.73 C$18.40 C$27.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$11.35 C$19.15 C$31.88 73
Rev-Margin DCF C$3.95 C$10.45 C$18.47 66

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 2
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 98
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 48
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 64
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 49
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 56
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
53.7% (2021) → −12.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.9% a year for the price.

RFA screens overvalued: fair value 60% below the price. Compare with CBRE Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −60.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −67.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 32.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 57.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.48× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.84× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.67× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 15.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.67× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)76 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 66

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vonovia SE VNA €16.90 €36.43 +116% vs RFA
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $370.80 $529.78 +43% vs RFA
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$41.64 HK$55.21 +33% vs RFA
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €26.68 €23.62 −11% vs RFA
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 HK$32.54 HK$27.21 −16% vs RFA
CBRE Group CBRE $135.51 $89.81 −34% vs RFA
KE Holdings BEKE $18.85 $7.33 −61% vs RFA
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.36 SGD 0.7800 SGD −67% vs RFA
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$26.36 HK$5.88 −78% vs RFA
CoStar Group CSGP $30.55 $6.09 −80% vs RFA

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RFA Financial Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "RFA Financial Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RFA

Frequently asked questions

Is RFA Financial Inc. (RFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$9.07 versus a price of C$22.74, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RFA?
Our model-based fair value for RFA Financial Inc. is C$9.07 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$22.74.
What is the quality score of RFA?
RFA Financial Inc. has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$9.07 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$5.22, optimistic scenario C$15.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the RFA Financial Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$9.07, about 60% lower versus a price of C$22.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$5.22, optimistic scenario C$15.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
RFA Financial Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$289M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, RFA Financial Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -13.0 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RFA use?
Our models discount RFA Financial Inc. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For RFA Financial Inc. that is +17.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has RFA Financial Inc. (RFA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at RFA Financial Inc. grew -13.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into RFA Financial Inc. (+17.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.31 %: that much free cash flow RFA Financial Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For RFA Financial Inc. it is C$9.07 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of C$22.74. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is RFA Financial Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, RFA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$22.74, fair value C$9.07, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$22.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$9.07). For RFA Financial Inc. the two are C$13.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is RFA Financial Inc. worth?
The market values RFA Financial Inc. at about C$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is C$22.74; our models calculate a fair value of C$9.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RFA?
Our models span a range for RFA Financial Inc.: cautious scenario C$5.22, base C$9.07, optimistic C$15.70 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price C$22.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RFA?
The PEG ratio of RFA Financial Inc. is 0.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for RFA Financial Inc. (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −13.3%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RFA from its 52-week high?
RFA Financial Inc. trades at C$22.74, about 22% below its 52-week high of C$29.14 and 30% above the low of C$17.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$9.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to RFA Financial Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is RFA Financial Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price C$22.74, calculated fair value C$9.07 (−60%), Quality Score 42/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RFA calculated?
We run RFA Financial Inc. through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$9.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. RFA Financial Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$22.74. Our model-based fair value is C$9.07, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with RFA Financial Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$15.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$5.22 to C$15.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of RFA Financial Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The market capitalisation of RFA Financial Inc. is C$1.1B (≈ $751M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of RFA Financial Inc. is 3.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
Earnings per share at RFA Financial Inc. are C$−5.78. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The net margin of RFA Financial Inc. is −67.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of RFA Financial Inc. is −13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of RFA Financial Inc. is −1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
The operating margin of RFA Financial Inc. is 32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at RFA Financial Inc. (RFA)?
Revenue at RFA Financial Inc. is growing +57.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does RFA Financial Inc. (RFA) carry?
The net debt of RFA Financial Inc. is C$958M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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