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RFA.TO (RFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of RFA.TO C$9.13, price C$25.51, upside -64.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · CA

RT Thin data Sep 23, 2026

RFA.TO

RFA · TO

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value C$9.13 · Strongly overvalued (−64%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −13.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -67.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$35.81 C$15.53 Fair Value C$9.13 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$15.53 – C$35.81 · fair‑value band C$5.25 – C$15.73 · the C$25.51 price screens above the C$9.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

RFA Financial Inc. is a diversified commercial real estate investment trust and is an unincorporated closed-end real estate investment trust, created under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Manitoba. The REIT was created pursuant to the Declaration of Trust dated November 8, 2004, as most recently amended and restated on December 19, 2021.

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RFA Financial Inc. is a diversified commercial real estate investment trust and is an unincorporated closed-end real estate investment trust, created under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Manitoba. The REIT was created pursuant to the Declaration of Trust dated November 8, 2004, as most recently amended and restated on December 19, 2021. Certain of the REIT's securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The REIT's common units trade under the symbol AX.UN and the REIT's preferred units trade under the symbols AX.PR.E and AX.PR.I. The REIT's common units also trade in the United States on the OTCQX Best Market, under the symbol ARESF. As at November 14, 2025, there were 95,966,473 common units, 7,108,165 preferred units, 736,465 restricted units and 591,279 deferred units of Artis outstanding. RFA Financial Inc. was founded in 2004 and is based in Winnipeg, Canada.

Stock analysis

RFA.TO (RFA) currently trades at C$25.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.13, implying the stock looks roughly 179.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of C$18.37 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the C$25.51 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$6.30, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: C$5.25 (bear) to C$15.73 (bull), the price of C$25.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

RFA.TO reported revenue of C$240M in FY2025 versus C$419M in FY2021, a compound −13.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$156M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$1.2B (≈ $843M) · P/S ratio 4.16 · EPS (TTM) C$−5.81 · Net margin −64.8% · Return on equity −13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.4% · Operating margin 32.3% · Revenue (TTM) C$289M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −64%, RFA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$5.25 Fair Value C$9.13 Bull C$15.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$8.10 C$14.42 C$25.01 74
Growth DCF C$8.78 C$14.76 C$24.03 73
5Y Revenue Exit C$3.28 C$8.89 C$17.01 65
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$8.10 C$14.42 C$25.01 74
5Y Revenue Exit C$3.28 C$8.89 C$17.01 65
10Y Revenue Exit C$5.00 C$9.09 C$13.30 63
Multiples
EV/Revenue C$0.6000 C$6.30 C$11.99 47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$13.71 C$18.37 C$27.41 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$8.78 C$14.76 C$24.03 73
Rev-Margin DCF C$3.28 C$9.44 C$17.03 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
53.7% (2021) → −12.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.9% a year for the price.

RFA screens 179% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 156 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −67% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 57% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.48× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.67× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.92× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 12.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.67× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)76 · sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Goodman Group GMG A$26.77 A$7.92 −70%
VICI Properties Inc VICI $23.98 $59.95 +150%
W. P. Carey Inc WPC $66.89 $69.67 +4%
Charter Hall Group CHC A$18.50 A$18.76 +1%
Stockland SGP A$4.20 A$2.79 −34%
COV COV €47.16 €50.01 +6%
The GPT Group GPT A$4.55 A$3.49 −23%
Mirvac Group MGR A$1.78 A$0.7400 −58%
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc BNL $19.12 $19.39 +1%
KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS 8.35 MYR 6.91 MYR −17%

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RFA.TO · Fair Value
C$9.13 −179%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "RFA.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RFA

Frequently asked questions

Is RFA.TO (RFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$9.13 versus a price of C$25.51, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RFA?
Our model-based fair value for RFA.TO is C$9.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$25.51.
What is the quality score of RFA?
RFA.TO has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for RFA.TO (RFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$9.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$5.25, optimistic scenario C$15.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the RFA.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$9.13, about −64% upside versus a price of C$25.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$5.25, optimistic scenario C$15.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of RFA.TO (RFA)?
RFA.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$289M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into RFA.TO (RFA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, RFA.TO would have to grow free cash flow by +18.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -13.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RFA use?
Our models discount RFA.TO at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For RFA.TO that is +18.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has RFA.TO (RFA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at RFA.TO grew -13.0 % a year. The price currently implies +18.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of RFA.TO (RFA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into RFA.TO (+18.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.62 %: that much free cash flow RFA.TO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of RFA.TO (RFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For RFA.TO it is C$9.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$25.51. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is RFA.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RFA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$25.51, fair value C$9.13, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$25.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$9.13). For RFA.TO the two are C$16.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is RFA.TO worth?
The market values RFA.TO at about C$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$25.51; our models calculate a fair value of C$9.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RFA?
Our models span a range for RFA.TO: cautious scenario C$5.25, base C$9.13, optimistic C$15.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$25.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RFA?
The PEG ratio of RFA.TO is 0.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of RFA.TO (RFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for RFA.TO (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −13.3%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RFA from its 52-week high?
RFA.TO trades at C$25.51, about 14% below its 52-week high of C$29.52 and 46% above the low of C$17.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$9.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to RFA.TO?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is RFA.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$25.51, calculated fair value C$9.13 (−64%), Quality Score 39/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RFA calculated?
We run RFA.TO through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$9.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. RFA.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$25.51. Our model-based fair value is C$9.13, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with RFA.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$15.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$5.25 to C$15.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of RFA.TO

How large is the market capitalisation of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The market capitalisation of RFA.TO is C$1.2B (≈ $843M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of RFA.TO is 4.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of RFA.TO (RFA)?
Earnings per share at RFA.TO are C$−5.81. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The net margin of RFA.TO is −64.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of RFA.TO is −13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of RFA.TO (RFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of RFA.TO is −1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of RFA.TO (RFA)?
The operating margin of RFA.TO is 32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at RFA.TO (RFA)?
Revenue at RFA.TO is growing +57.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does RFA.TO (RFA) carry?
The net debt of RFA.TO is C$958M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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