RFA Financial Inc (RFA) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · CA · Market cap C$1.3B

A solid business, but screening 79% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide (C$1.04 to C$5.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$15.53 – C$35.81 · fair‑value band C$1.04 – C$5.21 · the C$24.60 price screens above the C$5.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

RFA Financial Inc (RFA) currently trades at C$24.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$5.21, implying the stock looks roughly 78.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, RFA Financial Inc generated revenue of C$200M at a net margin of -37.6%. Revenue grew 22.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.0%. Net debt stands at C$958M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$1.04 (bear case) to C$5.21 (bull case); at C$24.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -79%, RFA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (C$18.17) versus DCF Models (C$2.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

RFA Financial Inc. is a diversified commercial real estate investment trust and is an unincorporated closed-end real estate investment trust, created under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Manitoba. The REIT was created pursuant to the Declaration of Trust dated November 8, 2004, as most recently amended and restated on December 19, 2021.

Full company description

RFA Financial Inc. is a diversified commercial real estate investment trust and is an unincorporated closed-end real estate investment trust, created under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Manitoba. The REIT was created pursuant to the Declaration of Trust dated November 8, 2004, as most recently amended and restated on December 19, 2021. Certain of the REIT's securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The REIT's common units trade under the symbol AX.UN and the REIT's preferred units trade under the symbols AX.PR.E and AX.PR.I. The REIT's common units also trade in the United States on the OTCQX Best Market, under the symbol ARESF. As at November 14, 2025, there were 95,966,473 common units, 7,108,165 preferred units, 736,465 restricted units and 591,279 deferred units of Artis outstanding. RFA Financial Inc. was founded in 2004 and is based in Winnipeg, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

RFA Financial Inc reported revenue of C$240M in FY2025 versus C$419M in FY2021, a compound −13.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$156M in FY2025.

RFA screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Real Estate stocks →

Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.