Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Rivian Automotive Inc $2.12, price $14.30, upside -85.2%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $8.40 – $172.01 · fair‑value band $1.58 – $3.16 · the $14.30 price screens above the $2.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Rivian Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells category-defining electric vehicles. It operates through two segments, Automotive, and Software and Services.
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Rivian Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells category-defining electric vehicles. It operates through two segments, Automotive, and Software and Services. The company offers consumer vehicles, including a two-row, five-passenger pickup truck under the R1T brand; and a three-row, seven-passenger sport utility vehicle under the R1S name. It also provides software and services, such as vehicle electrical architecture and software development, as well as Autonomy+, remarketing, vehicle repair and maintenance services, software subscriptions, vehicle accessories, financing, insurance, and other services. In addition, the company designs, develops, and manufactures the Rivian Adventure Network Direct Current fast chargers; and FleetOS, a proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. Further, it offers Rivian Commercial Van platform for Electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com, Inc. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in Irvine, California.
Stock analysis
Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) currently trades at $14.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.12, 85.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.58 (bear) to $3.16 (bull), the price of $14.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rivian Automotive Inc reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $55.0M in FY2021, a compound +214.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $23.6B · P/S ratio 4.02 · EPS (TTM) $−2.53 · Net margin −67.7% · Return on equity −57.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.2% · Operating margin −50.4% · Revenue (TTM) $5.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −85%, RIVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.58Fair Value $2.12Bull $3.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.1%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7,672.7% (2021) → −66.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−14.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−55.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−50.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.97× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.18× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.02× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)51· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.12 versus a price of $14.30, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RIVN?
Our model-based fair value for Rivian Automotive Inc is $2.12 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.30.
What is the quality score of RIVN?
Rivian Automotive Inc has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.12 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $3.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rivian Automotive Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.12, about −85% upside versus a price of $14.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $3.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
Rivian Automotive Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rivian Automotive Inc it is $2.12 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $14.30. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rivian Automotive Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, RIVN trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.30, fair value $2.12, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.12). For Rivian Automotive Inc the two are $12.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rivian Automotive Inc worth?
The market values Rivian Automotive Inc at about $23.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $14.30; our models calculate a fair value of $2.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIVN?
Our models span a range for Rivian Automotive Inc: cautious scenario $1.58, base $2.12, optimistic $3.16 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $14.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rivian Automotive Inc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −57.5%, debt of 0.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIVN from its 52-week high?
Rivian Automotive Inc trades at $14.30, about 36% below its 52-week high of $22.45 and 14% above the low of $12.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rivian Automotive Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rivian Automotive Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $14.30, calculated fair value $2.12 (−85%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIVN calculated?
We run Rivian Automotive Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Rivian Automotive Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.30. Our model-based fair value is $2.12, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rivian Automotive Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.58 to $3.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Rivian Automotive Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
The market capitalisation of Rivian Automotive Inc is $23.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rivian Automotive Inc is 4.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
Earnings per share at Rivian Automotive Inc are $−2.53. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
The net margin of Rivian Automotive Inc is −67.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rivian Automotive Inc is −57.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rivian Automotive Inc is −29.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
The operating margin of Rivian Automotive Inc is −50.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)?
Revenue at Rivian Automotive Inc is growing +27.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Rivian Automotive Inc is −$2.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) carry?
The net debt of Rivian Automotive Inc is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026