Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc (RMCF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $13.8M
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc
RMCF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −23.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4760). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.2380 to $0.4760) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8302 – $9.88 · fair‑value band $0.2380 – $0.4760 · the $0.8302 price screens above the $0.3145 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc (RMCF) currently trades at $0.8302, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3145, implying the stock looks roughly 62.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc generated revenue of $27.5M at a net margin of -16.6%. Revenue declined 24.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -74.7%. Net debt stands at $6.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.2380 (bear case) to $0.4760 (bull case); at $0.8302, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -62%, RMCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells confectionery products in the United States. The company offers chocolate candies and other confectionery products, such as clusters, caramels, creams, toffees, mints, truffles, and gourmet caramel apples.
Full company description
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells confectionery products in the United States. The company offers chocolate candies and other confectionery products, such as clusters, caramels, creams, toffees, mints, truffles, and gourmet caramel apples. It also franchises and licenses retail stores that offers chocolate and other confectionary products. Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Durango, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc reported revenue of $27.5M in FY2026 versus $29.5M in FY2022, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.6M in FY2026.
RMCF screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.50 | $21.81 | -45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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