Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory $0.24, price $0.85, upside -72.0%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6725 – $9.88 · fair‑value band $0.1785 – $0.3570 · the $0.8500 price screens above the $0.2380 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells confectionery products in the United States. The company offers chocolate candies and other confectionery products, such as clusters, caramels, creams, toffees, mints, truffles, and gourmet caramel apples.
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Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells confectionery products in the United States. The company offers chocolate candies and other confectionery products, such as clusters, caramels, creams, toffees, mints, truffles, and gourmet caramel apples. It also franchises and licenses retail stores that offers chocolate and other confectionary products. Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Durango, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) currently trades at $0.8500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2380, implying the stock looks roughly 257.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.1785 (bear) to $0.3570 (bull), the price of $0.8500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory reported revenue of $27.5M in FY2026 versus $29.5M in FY2022, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.6M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $13.8M · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5500 · Net margin −16.6% · Return on equity −74.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.9% · Operating margin −45.1% · Revenue (TTM) $27.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −72%, RMCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1785Fair Value $0.2380Bull $0.3570
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.8% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.5% (2021) → −13.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−72% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−11% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−17% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−45% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−24% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.64× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.50× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)37· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2380 versus a price of $0.8500, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RMCF?
Our model-based fair value for Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is $0.2380 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8500.
What is the quality score of RMCF?
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2380 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1785, optimistic scenario $0.3570. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2380, about −72% upside versus a price of $0.8500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1785, optimistic scenario $0.3570. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory it is $0.2380 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.8500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RMCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8500, fair value $0.2380, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RMCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2380). For Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory the two are $0.6120 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory worth?
The market values Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory at about $13.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.8500; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2380 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RMCF?
Our models span a range for Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory: cautious scenario $0.1785, base $0.2380, optimistic $0.3570 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.8500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −74.7%, debt of 1.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RMCF from its 52-week high?
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory trades at $0.8500, about 71% below its 52-week high of $2.91 and 26% above the low of $0.6725 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2380 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.8500, calculated fair value $0.2380 (−72%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RMCF calculated?
We run Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2380, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.8500. Our model-based fair value is $0.2380, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3570). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.1785 to $0.3570) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
How large is the market capitalisation of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
The market capitalisation of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is $13.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Earnings per share at Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory are $−0.5500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
The net margin of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is −16.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is −74.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is −18.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
The operating margin of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is −45.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Revenue at Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is growing −24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)?
Earnings per share at Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory are growing −86.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) generate?
The free cash flow of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is −$2.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) carry?
The net debt of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory is $6.7M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026