Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $105M
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc
RRGB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +24.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.94 to $14.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from $3.94 (bear) to $14.41 (bull), base $6.98. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 40/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.56 – $36.37 · fair‑value band $3.94 – $14.41 · the $8.20 price screens above the $6.98 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB) currently trades at $8.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.98, implying the stock looks roughly 14.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of -2.2%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $495M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.94 (bear case) to $14.41 (bull case); at $8.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 233% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -15%, RRGB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($27.14) versus DCF Models ($7.42). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Notify me when RRGB reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in North America and one Canadian province. Its restaurants primarily offer burgers and pizza, appetizers, salads, other entrees, desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers.
Full company description
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in North America and one Canadian province. Its restaurants primarily offer burgers and pizza, appetizers, salads, other entrees, desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$23.3M in FY2025.
RRGB screens 15% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
Compare Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of RRGB?
What is the quality score of RRGB?
What is the revenue of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB)?
What is the net profit margin of RRGB?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.