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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock $4.49, price $8.62, that is 47.9% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

8 models, one by oneBear $2.24 to bull $6.94 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 36/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Consumer Cyclical US

Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc

RRGB · US

Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.9 %/yr in USD)

Negative equity (buybacks among others)

Fair value $4.49 · Strongly overvalued

Quality 36/100

Loss-making · -2.6% net margin (TTM)

Trails peers (3/10)

Narrow moat 15/100

Thin data

⚠ Dilution

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.56 – $26.71 · fair‑value band $2.24 – $6.94 · the $8.62 price screens above the $4.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in North America and one Canadian province.

Show moreShow less

Its restaurants primarily offer burgers and pizza, appetizers, salads, other entrees, desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

Stock analysis

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) currently trades at $8.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.49, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $8.03 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the $8.62 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $5.02, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.24 (bear) to $6.94 (bull), the price of $8.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$23.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $189M Micro · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) $−1.70 · Net margin −2.6% · Return on equity −238% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $1.2B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 233% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −48%, RRGB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.24 Fair Value $4.49 Bull $6.94

Price $8.62 · Downside -47.9%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

FCF DCF $2.63 $5.28 $8.16 78

Growth DCF $2.66 $5.02 $7.45 77

Owner Earnings $2.33 $4.90 $7.69 74

All 8 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $2.63 $5.28 $8.16 78

Owner Earnings $2.33 $4.90 $7.69 74

5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $0.1000 69

5Y EBITDA Exit $8.54 $17.71 $28.01 73

10Y Revenue Exit $0.3700 $1.57 $2.81 62

10Y EBITDA Exit $5.34 $11.14 $18.34 66

Multiples

EV/EBITDA n/a $8.03 $16.59 62

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $2.66 $5.02 $7.45 77

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 52

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 69

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 14

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 10

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 99

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 0

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 86

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 88

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 0

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

SaleJesse GriffithChief Operations Officer3× since Mar 16, 2026: 3,249 shares, avg. $3.13$10,172Apr 6, 2026
SaleSarah A. MussetterCHIEF LEGAL OFFICER3× since Dec 9, 2025: 9,750 shares, avg. $3.38$32,911Mar 23, 2026
SaleJoshua Todd WilsonCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER6,015 shares at $4.15$24,962Nov 17, 2025

Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−3.1%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.5%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.9%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year

Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.0%

’14

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

−31.7% (2020) → 0.2% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+43.3%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−2.2%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.9% a year for the price and −4.5% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)−3.7%

Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.7%

Projected 2028 (sales)−2.1%

Projected 2029 (sales)−1.5%

Projected 2030 (sales)−0.9%

RRGB screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

Compare Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −47.9% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Return on assets −4.1% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (12 months) −2.6% · Below median

Operating margin (12 months) 2.8% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −2.1% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

P/S (12 months) 0.16× · Cheapest 25%

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 30.3× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 1.36× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG	$34.43	$37.87	+10%	vs RRGB
Yum China Holdings YUMC	$49.95	$51.14	+2%	vs RRGB
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR	$77.69	$72.40	−7%	vs RRGB
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI	$226.35	$175.82	−22%	vs RRGB
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ	$334.28	$234.54	−30%	vs RRGB
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH	$183.88	$128.55	−30%	vs RRGB
Starbucks Corporation SBUX	$105.41	$65.63	−38%	vs RRGB
McDonald's Corporation MCD	$276.52	$162.81	−41%	vs RRGB
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM	$161.14	$73.05	−55%	vs RRGB
CAVA Group CAVA	$59.15	$12.01	−80%	vs RRGB

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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

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Frequently asked questions

Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.49 versus a price of $8.62, about 48% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of RRGB?

Our model-based fair value for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is $4.49 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.62.

What is the quality score of RRGB?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.49 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.24, optimistic scenario $6.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $4.49, about 48% lower versus a price of $8.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.24, optimistic scenario $6.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).

What growth is priced into Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +43.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RRGB use?

Our models discount Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 2.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc that is +43.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +43.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (+43.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.30 %: that much free cash flow Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc it is $4.49 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $8.62. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).

Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 8, 2026, RRGB trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.62, fair value $4.49, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of RRGB?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.49). For Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc the two are $4.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc worth?

The market values Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc at about $189M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $8.62; our models calculate a fair value of $4.49 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RRGB?

Our models span a range for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc: cautious scenario $2.24, base $4.49, optimistic $6.94 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $8.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the PEG ratio of RRGB?

The PEG ratio of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Balance-sheet figures for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is RRGB from its 52-week high?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc trades at $8.62, about 19% below its 52-week high of $10.59 and 233% above the low of $2.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.49 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $8.62, calculated fair value $4.49 (−48%), Quality Score 36/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of RRGB calculated?

We run Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc through 8 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.49 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.62. Our model-based fair value is $4.49, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.24 to $6.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The market capitalisation of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is $189M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is 0.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Earnings per share at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc are $−1.70. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The net margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is −2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is −238% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

The operating margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Revenue at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?

Earnings per share at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc are growing −90.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) carry?

The net debt of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is $495M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 79.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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