Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc $4.59, price $7.73, upside -40.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
- Add to watchlist
RR
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc
RRGB · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $4.59 · Strongly overvalued (−41%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.
Watch for free
Pro now: $1 first month
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.56 – $33.61 · fair‑value band $2.29 – $7.09 · the $7.73 price screens above the $4.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Red Robin Gourmet Burgers in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Red Robin Gourmet Burgers is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Company profile
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in North America and one Canadian province. Its restaurants primarily offer burgers and pizza, appetizers, salads, other entrees, desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers.
Show more
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in North America and one Canadian province. Its restaurants primarily offer burgers and pizza, appetizers, salads, other entrees, desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) currently trades at $7.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.59, implying the stock looks roughly 68.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.14 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $7.73 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $8.62, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.29 (bear) to $7.09 (bull), the price of $7.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$23.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $138M · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) $−1.50 · Net margin −1.9% · Return on equity −238% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% · Operating margin 2.4% · Revenue (TTM) $1.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 198% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −41%, RRGB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.29
Fair Value $4.59
Bull $7.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.88
$8.94
$13.73
79
Growth DCF
$5.00
$8.62
$12.68
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
$10.50
$21.06
$32.96
73
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.88
$8.94
$13.73
79
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.7700
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$10.50
$21.06
$32.96
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.33
$2.80
$4.33
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$7.76
$15.23
$24.54
66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$18.40
$27.14
$35.88
66
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.00
$8.62
$12.68
77
Notify me when RRGB reaches fair value
Put RRGB on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
21
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
39/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−31.7% (2020) → 0.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.3% a year for the price and −4.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)−1.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.6%
RRGB screens 68% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Compare Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $250.35 | $162.16 | −35% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $95.11 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.63 | $35.89 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $139.71 | $75.61 | −46% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.91 | $74.72 | +4% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $213.54 | $173.68 | −19% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $41.58 | $49.95 | +20% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $166.12 | $128.38 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $38.76 | $15.54 | −60% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $297.12 | $231.96 | −22% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.59 versus a price of $7.73, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RRGB?
Our model-based fair value for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is $4.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.73.
What is the quality score of RRGB?
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.29, optimistic scenario $7.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.59, about −41% upside versus a price of $7.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.29, optimistic scenario $7.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +39.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RRGB use?
Our models discount Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 2.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc that is +39.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies +39.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (+39.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.53 %: that much free cash flow Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc it is $4.59 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.73. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RRGB trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.73, fair value $4.59, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RRGB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.59). For Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc the two are $3.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc worth?
The market values Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc at about $138M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.73; our models calculate a fair value of $4.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RRGB?
Our models span a range for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc: cautious scenario $2.29, base $4.59, optimistic $7.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RRGB?
The PEG ratio of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RRGB from its 52-week high?
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc trades at $7.73, about 27% below its 52-week high of $10.59 and 198% above the low of $2.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.73, calculated fair value $4.59 (−41%), Quality Score 40/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RRGB calculated?
We run Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.73. Our model-based fair value is $4.59, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.29 to $7.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The market capitalisation of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is $138M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
Earnings per share at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc are $−1.50. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The net margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is −1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is −238% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
The operating margin of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)?
Revenue at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB) carry?
The net debt of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc is $495M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 79.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.