Saab AB (SAAB-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 280B SEK (≈ $29.2B) · ISIN SE0021921269
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +6.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 200% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 273.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 51.10 – kr 728.48 · fair‑value band kr 152.46 – kr 273.21 · the kr 639.60 price screens above the kr 212.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Saab AB (SAAB-B) currently trades at kr 639.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 212.84, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Saab AB generated revenue of 82.5B SEK at a net margin of 7.9%. Revenue grew 21.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at 15.2B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 152.46 (bear case) to kr 273.21 (bull case); at kr 639.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -67%, SAAB-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 6.40 SEK per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 232.98) versus Asset-Based (kr 54.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for military defense, aviation, and civil security markets in Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and internationally. The company operates through Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech segments.
Full company description
Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for military defense, aviation, and civil security markets in Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and internationally. The company operates through Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech segments. The Aeronautics segment engages in the manufacture of aerial systems; development of military aviation technology; and conducting of studies of manned and unmanned aircraft for new systems and further development of existing products. Its Dynamics segment offers combat weapons, missile systems, systems for training and simulation, and signature management systems for armed forces in the civil and defense markets. The Surveillance segment provides airborne, ground-based and naval radar, electronic warfare, combat systems, and C4I solutions. Its Kockums segment develops, delivers, and maintains submarines with the Stirling system for air independent propulsion, surface combatants, mine hunting systems, autonomous vessels, torpedoes, and unmanned underwater vehicles. The Combitech segment offers services in systems development, systems integration, information security, systems security, communications, mechanics, technical product information, and logistics, as well as technology consultancy services. Saab AB (publ) was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saab AB reported revenue of kr 79.1B in FY2025 versus kr 39.2B in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was kr 6.3B in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.5 % · buybacks/dilution −1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SAAB-B screens 200% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Saab receives order for GlobalEye
- Saab AB (SAABF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Order Backlog and Strong Growth
- Saab (OM:SAAB B) Stock May Be Pricey As Record Backlog Tests Valuation
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 233 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $354.39 | $116.71 | -67% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | -58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | -45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | -26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $269.34 | $50.43 | -81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | -28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | -35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | -54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | -44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €246.70 | €171.13 | -31% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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