Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Saab AB (publ) SEK 213, price SEK 632, upside -66.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 51.10 – kr 728.48 · fair‑value band kr 152.67 – kr 273.58 · the kr 631.60 price screens above the kr 213.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for military defense, aviation, and civil security markets in Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and internationally.
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The company operates through Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech segments.
The Aeronautics segment engages in the manufacture of aerial systems; development of military aviation technology; and conducting of studies of manned and unmanned aircraft for new systems and further development of existing products.
Its Dynamics segment offers combat weapons, missile systems, systems for training and simulation, and signature management systems for armed forces in the civil and defense markets.
The Surveillance segment provides airborne, ground-based and naval radar, electronic warfare, combat systems, and C4I solutions.
Its Kockums segment develops, delivers, and maintains submarines with the Stirling system for air independent propulsion, surface combatants, mine hunting systems, autonomous vessels, torpedoes, and unmanned underwater vehicles.
The Combitech segment offers services in systems development, systems integration, information security, systems security, communications, mechanics, technical product information, and logistics, as well as technology consultancy services.
Saab AB (publ) was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) currently trades at kr 631.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 213.12, 66.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 236.78 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 631.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 54.87, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 152.67 (bear) to kr 273.58 (bull), the price of kr 631.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Saab AB (publ) reported revenue of 79.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 39.2B SEK in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.3B SEK in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 342B SEK (≈ $34.3B) · P/E ratio 47.2 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) kr 13.15 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −66%, SAAB-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 152.67Fair Value kr 213.12Bullkr 273.58
Price kr 631.60 · Upside -66.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 8.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFkr 139.59kr 236.78kr 393.2378
Growth DCFkr 140.70kr 235.25kr 386.5576
Owner Earningskr 78.09kr 135.05kr 226.7574
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFkr 139.59kr 236.78kr 393.2378
Owner Earningskr 78.09kr 135.05kr 226.7574
5Y Revenue Exitkr 124.07kr 209.92kr 321.8271
5Y EBITDA Exitkr 157.89kr 275.74kr 417.3474
5Y P/E Exitkr 153.54kr 267.27kr 390.8870
10Y Revenue Exitkr 124.03kr 205.26kr 319.7865
10Y EBITDA Exitkr 150.07kr 251.96kr 395.4567
10Y P/E Exitkr 147.25kr 245.96kr 374.4963
Earnings-Based
Graham-Doddkr 81.15kr 302.20kr 408.5064
Lynch FVkr 72.67kr 103.82kr 134.9661
PEG = 1.0kr 72.67kr 103.82kr 134.9657
EPVkr 96.55kr 114.14kr 129.5474
Multiples
P/E Multiplekr 187.95kr 250.60kr 313.2563
P/S Multiplekr 152.15kr 202.86kr 253.5858
P/B Multiplekr 152.15kr 202.86kr 253.5855
EV/EBITkr 172.38kr 232.84kr 293.3066
EV/EBITDAkr 186.22kr 251.29kr 316.3667
EV/Revenuekr 120.46kr 175.94kr 231.4253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)kr 40.95kr 54.87kr 81.9054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFkr 140.70kr 235.25kr 386.5576
Rev-Margin DCFkr 124.07kr 209.28kr 312.2772
Economic Profit
Residual Incomekr 81.07kr 104.51kr 159.7774
ROIC Compounderkr 101.68kr 136.58kr 183.9271
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/Ekr 134.70kr 192.43kr 250.1667
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.5% vs 16.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 10%
2025 sits 86% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.7% a year for the price and +16.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Solid defense niche strengths in innovation and organization capital are offset by limited pricing power and average human capital signals.
Main risk: Any shift in Swedish government priorities for national capabilities would hit the Gripen E/F engine collaboration and added production capacity.
Saab recently strengthened its collaboration with GKN Aerospace on engine and propulsion systems for the Gripen E/F program. This adds expertise and capacity while aligning with Swedish government priorities for national capabilities. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will this partnership mainly secure production scalability or unlock new margins in a competitive defense market?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−66.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)47.2× · Pricier than median
P/B7.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.88× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow57.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.51× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saab AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAAB-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 213.12 versus a price of kr 631.60, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAAB-B?
Our model-based fair value for Saab AB (publ) is kr 213.12 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 631.60.
What is the quality score of SAAB-B?
Saab AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 213.12 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 152.67, optimistic scenario kr 273.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saab AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 213.12, about −66% upside versus a price of kr 631.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 152.67, optimistic scenario kr 273.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Saab AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 88.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does Saab AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Saab AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saab AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +23.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAAB-B use?
Our models discount Saab AB (publ) at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.03, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saab AB (publ) that is +23.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saab AB (publ) grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +23.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saab AB (publ) (+23.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.75 %: that much free cash flow Saab AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saab AB (publ) it is kr 213.12 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 631.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saab AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, SAAB-B trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 631.60, fair value kr 213.12, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAAB-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 631.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 213.12). For Saab AB (publ) the two are kr 418.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saab AB (publ) worth?
The market values Saab AB (publ) at about 342B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 631.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 213.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAAB-B?
Our models span a range for Saab AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 152.67, base kr 213.12, optimistic kr 273.58 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 631.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAAB-B?
Saab AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.2 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 213.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 7.9, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 32.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SAAB-B?
The PEG ratio of Saab AB (publ) is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saab AB (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAAB-B from its 52-week high?
Saab AB (publ) trades at kr 631.60, about 13% below its 52-week high of kr 728.48 and 40% above the low of kr 452.43 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 213.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saab AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saab AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 631.60, calculated fair value kr 213.12 (−66%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAAB-B calculated?
We run Saab AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 213.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Saab AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was kr 631.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 213.12, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saab AB (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 273.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) come from?
Earnings per share at Saab AB (publ) grew +14.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saab AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The market capitalisation of Saab AB (publ) is 342B SEK (≈ $34.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saab AB (publ) is 3.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Earnings per share at Saab AB (publ) are kr 13.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The dividend yield of Saab AB (publ) is 0.4% (payout 18.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The net margin of Saab AB (publ) is 8.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saab AB (publ) is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saab AB (publ) is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
The operating margin of Saab AB (publ) is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Revenue at Saab AB (publ) is growing +28.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B)?
Earnings per share at Saab AB (publ) are growing +39.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B) carry?
The net debt of Saab AB (publ) is 15.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 13, 2026