Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi produces and sells air conditioners in Turkey. The company offers bus, midibus, minibus, metro, tram, train, refrigerated coolers, defense industry products, electric vehicle air conditioners.
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Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi produces and sells air conditioners in Turkey. The company offers bus, midibus, minibus, metro, tram, train, refrigerated coolers, defense industry products, electric vehicle air conditioners. It also manufactures and sells air conditioning and cold air facilities for motorized road vehicles, rail systems, and marine transportation vehicles. Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Izmir, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR) currently trades at 13.62 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.93 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 37.86 TRY per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the 13.62 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.90 TRY, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 8.32 TRY (bear) to 22.41 TRY (bull), the price of 13.62 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic reported revenue of 1.8B TRY in FY2025 versus 153M TRY in FY2021, a compound +84.6%/yr. Reported net income was 163M TRY in FY2025, compounding +82.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8B TRY (≈ $78.8M) · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) 0.7100 TRY · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 32%, SAFKR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8.32 TRYFair Value 17.93 TRYBull 22.41 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5019 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+76.0%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.0%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 21%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth40% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAFKR
Frequently asked questions
Is Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.93 TRY versus a price of 13.62 TRY, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SAFKR?
Our model-based fair value for Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 17.93 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.62 TRY.
What is the quality score of SAFKR?
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.93 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.32 TRY, optimistic scenario 22.41 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.93 TRY, about +32% upside versus a price of 13.62 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 8.32 TRY, optimistic scenario 22.41 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic pay a dividend?
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic would have to grow free cash flow by +34.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +76.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAFKR use?
Our models discount Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic that is +34.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic grew +76.0 % a year. The price currently implies +34.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (+34.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.18 %: that much free cash flow Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic it is 17.93 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 13.62 TRY. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SAFKR trades below its calculated fair value: price 13.62 TRY, fair value 17.93 TRY, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAFKR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.62 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.93 TRY). For Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic the two are 4.31 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic worth?
The market values Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic at about 3.8B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 13.62 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 17.93 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAFKR?
Our models span a range for Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic: cautious scenario 8.32 TRY, base 17.93 TRY, optimistic 22.41 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 13.62 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAFKR?
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.93 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAFKR from its 52-week high?
Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic trades at 13.62 TRY, about 56% below its 52-week high of 30.74 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.93 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 13.62 TRY, calculated fair value 17.93 TRY (+32%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAFKR calculated?
We run Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.93 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The closing price on Sep 14, 2026 was 13.62 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 17.93 TRY, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic right now?
The model range is unusually wide (8.32 TRY to 22.41 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic
How large is the market capitalisation of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The market capitalisation of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 3.8B TRY (≈ $78.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 1.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Earnings per share at Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic are 0.7100 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The dividend yield of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 0.1% (payout 2.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The net margin of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 16.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
The operating margin of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Revenue at Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is growing +39.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +77.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR)?
Earnings per share at Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic are growing +169% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic (SAFKR) carry?
The net debt of Safkar Ege Sogutmacilik Klima Soguk Hava Tesisleri Ihracat Ithalat Sanayi ve Tic is 7.6M TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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