AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AB Sagax (publ) SEK 122, price SEK 156, upside -21.8%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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AB Sagax (publ), a property company, owns and manages a property portfolio in Sweden, Finland, France, Benelux, Spain, Germany, and other European countries. It invests in commercial properties primarily in the warehouse and light industrial segments. The company also engages in the financial administration and asset management activities.
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AB Sagax (publ), a property company, owns and manages a property portfolio in Sweden, Finland, France, Benelux, Spain, Germany, and other European countries. It invests in commercial properties primarily in the warehouse and light industrial segments. The company also engages in the financial administration and asset management activities. AB Sagax (publ) was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A) currently trades at kr 156.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 121.93, 21.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 82.11 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the kr 156.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 57.39, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 112.75 (bear) to kr 140.53 (bull), the price of kr 156.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AB Sagax (publ) reported revenue of 5.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was 4.0B SEK in FY2025, compounding −19.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 84.6B SEK (≈ $8.4B) · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 8.50 · EPS (TTM) kr 15.08 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 75.0% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −22%, SAGA-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 112.75Fair Value kr 121.93Bull kr 140.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 8.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.1% vs 5.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.82% → 79%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 529 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−21.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)98.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)78.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 121.93 versus a price of kr 156.00, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAGA-A?
Our model-based fair value for AB Sagax (publ) is kr 121.93 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 156.00.
What is the quality score of SAGA-A?
AB Sagax (publ) has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 121.93 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 112.75, optimistic scenario kr 140.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AB Sagax (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 121.93, about −22% upside versus a price of kr 156.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 112.75, optimistic scenario kr 140.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
AB Sagax (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does AB Sagax (publ) pay a dividend?
AB Sagax (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AB Sagax (publ) it is kr 121.93 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of kr 156.00. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AB Sagax (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, SAGA-A trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 156.00, fair value kr 121.93, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAGA-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 156.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 121.93). For AB Sagax (publ) the two are kr 34.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AB Sagax (publ) worth?
The market values AB Sagax (publ) at about 84.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is kr 156.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 121.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAGA-A?
Our models span a range for AB Sagax (publ): cautious scenario kr 112.75, base kr 121.93, optimistic kr 140.53 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price kr 156.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAGA-A?
AB Sagax (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 121.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 15.4, EV/EBITDA 27.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SAGA-A?
The PEG ratio of AB Sagax (publ) is 1.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for AB Sagax (publ) (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAGA-A from its 52-week high?
AB Sagax (publ) trades at kr 156.00, about 30% below its 52-week high of kr 222.39 and 6% above the low of kr 147.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 121.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AB Sagax (publ)?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AB Sagax (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price kr 156.00, calculated fair value kr 121.93 (−22%), Quality Score 50/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAGA-A calculated?
We run AB Sagax (publ) through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 121.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AB Sagax (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 156.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 121.93, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AB Sagax (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 140.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A) come from?
Earnings per share at AB Sagax (publ) grew +9.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.0 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AB Sagax (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The market capitalisation of AB Sagax (publ) is 84.6B SEK (≈ $8.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AB Sagax (publ) is 8.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
Earnings per share at AB Sagax (publ) are kr 15.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The dividend yield of AB Sagax (publ) is 2.4% (payout 24.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The net margin of AB Sagax (publ) is 75.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AB Sagax (publ) is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AB Sagax (publ) is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
The operating margin of AB Sagax (publ) is 78.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
Revenue at AB Sagax (publ) is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A)?
Earnings per share at AB Sagax (publ) are growing +176% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A) generate?
The free cash flow of AB Sagax (publ) is −1.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AB Sagax (publ) (SAGA-A) carry?
The net debt of AB Sagax (publ) is 39.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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