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SAP SE (SAPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of SAP SE MXN 2,793, price MXN 3,660, upside -23.7%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · MX · ISIN US8030542042

SS Broad data Sep 28, 2026

SAP SE

SAPN · MX

Great Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.

!Fair value 2,793 MXN · Overvalued (−23.7%)
✓Quality 81/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 19.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.1% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 85/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

5,874 MXN 1,465 MXN Fair Value 2,793 MXN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,465 MXN – 5,874 MXN · fair‑value band 1,806 MXN – 3,894 MXN · the 3,660 MXN price screens above the 2,793 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide.

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SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR, time, payroll, talent and employee experience management, and analytics and planning; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand business process operations; industry solutions that provide customers and partners with industry-specific solutions; and SAP LeanIX to visualize enterprise architecture, assess interdependencies and the potential impact of IT modernization, and manage the transition toward the target landscape. Further, the company provides WalkMe to execute workflows; SAP Enable Now, which offers e-learning content embedded in SAP workflows; Taulia solutions for working capital management; and sustainability solutions and services. Additionally, it provides services and support solutions. The company has a strategic collaboration with Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA and Avelios Medical GmbH for the development of a cloud-native, hospital information system that enables digitalization of clinical and administrative processes with AI integration. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.

Stock analysis

SAP SE (SAPN) currently trades at 3,660 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,793 MXN, 23.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 3,037 MXN per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the 3,660 MXN price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 522.81 MXN, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 1,806 MXN (bear) to 3,894 MXN (bull), the price of 3,660 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

SAP SE reported revenue of €36.8B in FY2025 versus €27.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was €7.2B in FY2025, compounding +7.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 4.3T MXN (≈ $235B) · P/E ratio 29.4 · P/S ratio 5.72 · EPS (TTM) 124.47 MXN · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −24%, SAPN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 1,806 MXN Fair Value 2,793 MXN Bull 3,894 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (92.23 MXN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 1,832 MXN 2,823 MXN 4,341 MXN 79
Growth DCF 1,861 MXN 2,737 MXN 3,995 MXN 78
Owner Earnings 1,696 MXN 2,610 MXN 4,011 MXN 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 1,832 MXN 2,823 MXN 4,341 MXN 79
Owner Earnings 1,696 MXN 2,610 MXN 4,011 MXN 76
5Y Revenue Exit 1,637 MXN 2,546 MXN 3,701 MXN 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 2,184 MXN 3,571 MXN 5,192 MXN 74
5Y P/E Exit 2,212 MXN 3,625 MXN 5,110 MXN 70
10Y Revenue Exit 1,644 MXN 2,492 MXN 3,623 MXN 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 2,040 MXN 3,205 MXN 4,764 MXN 68
10Y P/E Exit 2,058 MXN 3,242 MXN 4,701 MXN 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 852.22 MXN 2,684 MXN 3,573 MXN 64
Lynch FV 587.78 MXN 839.69 MXN 1,092 MXN 61
PEG = 1.0 587.78 MXN 839.69 MXN 1,092 MXN 57
EPV 1,444 MXN 1,672 MXN 1,873 MXN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 440.78 MXN 916.47 MXN 1,454 MXN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 440.78 MXN 732.72 MXN 961.87 MXN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2,632 MXN 3,509 MXN 4,386 MXN 63
P/S Multiple 1,598 MXN 2,131 MXN 2,663 MXN 58
P/B Multiple 1,598 MXN 2,131 MXN 2,663 MXN 55
EV/EBIT 3,101 MXN 4,111 MXN 5,121 MXN 66
EV/EBITDA 2,653 MXN 3,514 MXN 4,375 MXN 67
EV/Revenue 1,603 MXN 2,259 MXN 2,916 MXN 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 390.15 MXN 522.81 MXN 780.31 MXN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 1,861 MXN 2,737 MXN 3,995 MXN 78
Rev-Margin DCF 1,637 MXN 2,550 MXN 3,606 MXN 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 820.29 MXN 1,044 MXN 1,573 MXN 75
ROIC Compounder 1,544 MXN 1,937 MXN 2,397 MXN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2,126 MXN 3,037 MXN 3,949 MXN 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 81/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 26%
2025 sits 130% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.2% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+11.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.1%

SAPN screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Salesforce, Inc →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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SAP SE · Fair Value
2,793 MXN −24%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SAP SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAPN

Frequently asked questions

Is SAP SE (SAPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,793 MXN versus a price of 3,660 MXN, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAPN?
Our model-based fair value for SAP SE is 2,793 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,660 MXN.
What is the quality score of SAPN?
SAP SE has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SAP SE (SAPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,793 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,806 MXN, optimistic scenario 3,894 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SAP SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,793 MXN, about −24% upside versus a price of 3,660 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,806 MXN, optimistic scenario 3,894 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SAP SE (SAPN)?
SAP SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €37.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does SAP SE pay a dividend?
SAP SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into SAP SE (SAPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SAP SE would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAPN use?
Our models discount SAP SE at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SAP SE that is +15.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SAP SE (SAPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SAP SE grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +15.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SAP SE (SAPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SAP SE (+15.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.08 %: that much free cash flow SAP SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SAP SE it is 2,793 MXN per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of 3,660 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SAP SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SAPN trades above its calculated fair value: price 3,660 MXN, fair value 2,793 MXN, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,660 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,793 MXN). For SAP SE the two are 866.72 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SAP SE worth?
The market values SAP SE at about 4.3T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is 3,660 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 2,793 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAPN?
Our models span a range for SAP SE: cautious scenario 1,806 MXN, base 2,793 MXN, optimistic 3,894 MXN per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price 3,660 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is SAPN from its 52-week high?
SAP SE trades at 3,660 MXN, about 28% below its 52-week high of 5,055 MXN and 41% above the low of 2,600 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,793 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SAP SE?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SAP SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price 3,660 MXN, calculated fair value 2,793 MXN (−24%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAPN calculated?
We run SAP SE through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,793 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SAP SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 3,660 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 2,793 MXN, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SAP SE right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (1,806 MXN to 3,894 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of SAP SE

How large is the market capitalisation of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The market capitalisation of SAP SE is 4.3T MXN (≈ $235B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of SAP SE is 29.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SAP SE is 5.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SAP SE (SAPN)?
Earnings per share at SAP SE are 124.47 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The dividend yield of SAP SE is 0.1% (payout 2.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The net margin of SAP SE is 19.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SAP SE is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SAP SE (SAPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SAP SE is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SAP SE (SAPN)?
The operating margin of SAP SE is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SAP SE (SAPN)?
Revenue at SAP SE is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SAP SE (SAPN)?
Earnings per share at SAP SE are growing +9.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SAP SE (SAPN) carry?
The net debt of SAP SE is €1.9B (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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