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Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR
SAPR3 · SAClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value R$21.21 · Strongly undervalued (+175%)
!Quality 52/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·23.68% dividend yield
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$2.52 – R$11.71 · fair‑value band R$14.85 – R$30.01 · the R$7.70 price screens below the R$21.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR provides sanitation services in Brazil. The company engages in water distribution; collection and treatment of sewage and solid waste; study, project, and construction work of new facilities; expansion of water distribution networks; and collection and treatment of sewage networks.
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Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR provides sanitation services in Brazil. The company engages in water distribution; collection and treatment of sewage and solid waste; study, project, and construction work of new facilities; expansion of water distribution networks; and collection and treatment of sewage networks. It also provides consultancy and technical assistance services in its areas of activity. Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) currently trades at R$7.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$21.21, implying the stock looks roughly 63.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$25.38 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$7.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$3.96, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$14.85 (bear) to R$30.01 (bull), the price of R$7.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR reported revenue of R$7.2B in FY2025 versus R$5.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$12.8B (≈ $2.5B) · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 3.22 · EPS (TTM) R$0.7600 · Net margin 28.9% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6% · Operating margin 35.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 175%, SAPR3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$14.85
Fair Value R$21.21
Bull R$30.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$31.43
R$53.31
R$89.25
78
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$14.58
R$20.36
R$26.86
76
Growth DCF
R$31.55
R$52.51
R$86.55
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$31.43
R$53.31
R$89.25
78
Owner Earnings
R$0.5600
R$1.06
R$1.89
73
5Y Revenue Exit
R$13.41
R$18.04
R$23.48
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$14.58
R$20.36
R$26.86
76
5Y P/E Exit
R$21.59
R$34.21
R$47.87
70
10Y Revenue Exit
R$19.25
R$25.38
R$33.13
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$20.17
R$27.04
R$35.85
69
10Y P/E Exit
R$24.73
R$36.95
R$52.73
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$9.36
R$37.03
R$50.29
64
Lynch FV
R$9.16
R$13.09
R$17.01
61
PEG = 1.0
R$9.16
R$13.09
R$17.01
57
EPV
R$3.37
R$3.96
R$4.47
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$2.51
R$5.21
R$8.27
66
DDM Multi-Stage
R$2.51
R$4.40
R$5.47
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$18.58
R$24.77
R$30.96
63
P/S Multiple
R$8.94
R$11.92
R$14.90
58
P/B Multiple
R$11.03
R$14.71
R$18.38
55
EV/EBIT
R$5.67
R$7.61
R$9.56
66
EV/EBITDA
R$6.83
R$9.16
R$11.50
67
EV/Revenue
R$4.55
R$6.58
R$8.60
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$4.09
R$5.47
R$8.17
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$31.55
R$52.51
R$86.55
76
Rev-Margin DCF
R$13.41
R$18.45
R$23.60
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$9.12
R$12.24
R$43.14
64
ROIC Compounder
R$3.37
R$3.96
R$4.47
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$14.85
R$21.21
R$27.58
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
17
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
’14
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 17%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.4%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $137.69 | $65.80 | −52% |
| SBS SBS | $5.29 | $8.22 | +55% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $41.07 | $23.28 | −43% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.55 | HK$12.82 | +50% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.54 | ¥49.96 | +69% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $86.48 | $38.40 | −56% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.08 | ¥9.09 | +28% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $48.22 | $25.75 | −47% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.10 | ¥1.76 | −57% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.66 | $29.35 | −53% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$21.21 versus a price of R$7.70, about +175% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SAPR3?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is R$21.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$7.70.
What is the quality score of SAPR3?
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$21.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$14.85, optimistic scenario R$30.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$21.21, about +175% upside versus a price of R$7.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$14.85, optimistic scenario R$30.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$7.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR would have to grow free cash flow by -21.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAPR3 use?
Our models discount Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR that is -21.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies -21.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (-21.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.69 %: that much free cash flow Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR it is R$21.21 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of R$7.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SAPR3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$7.70, fair value R$21.21, a gap of about +175% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAPR3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$7.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$21.21). For Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR the two are R$13.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR worth?
The market values Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR at about R$12.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is R$7.70; our models calculate a fair value of R$21.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAPR3?
Our models span a range for Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR: cautious scenario R$14.85, base R$21.21, optimistic R$30.01 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price R$7.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAPR3?
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$21.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAPR3 from its 52-week high?
Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR trades at R$7.70, about 35% below its 52-week high of R$11.79 and 24% above the low of R$6.23 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$21.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, SBS, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price R$7.70, calculated fair value R$21.21 (+175%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAPR3 calculated?
We run Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$21.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR currently trades 175 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$14.85). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R$14.85 to R$30.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) come from?
Earnings per share at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR grew +14.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR
How large is the market capitalisation of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
The market capitalisation of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is R$12.8B (≈ $2.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is 3.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR are R$0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
The net margin of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is 28.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
The operating margin of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is 35.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Revenue at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR are growing −70.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR3) carry?
The net debt of Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR is R$1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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