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SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of SBI Holdings Inc $14.97, price $20.75, upside -27.9%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · Home Japan

SH SBI Holdings Inc logo Broad data Sep 25, 2026

SBI Holdings Inc

SBHGF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $14.97 · Overvalued (−27.9%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +28.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
✓Wide moat 71/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$47.37 $13.50 Fair Value $14.97 May 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.50 – $47.37 · fair‑value band $11.23 – $18.71 · the $20.75 price screens above the $14.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.

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Company profile

SBI Holdings, Inc. engages in investment businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through five business segments: Financial Services Business, Asset Management Business, PE Investment Business, Crypto-Asset Business, and Next Gen Business segments.

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SBI Holdings, Inc. engages in investment businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through five business segments: Financial Services Business, Asset Management Business, PE Investment Business, Crypto-Asset Business, and Next Gen Business segments. Its Financial Services Business segment consists of a range of finance-related business, including securities brokerage business; banking services business; and life, property, and casualty insurance businesses. The Asset Management Business segment includes setting, solicitation, and management of investment trust; investment advice; and financial products information. Its PE Investment Business segment includes fund management and investment in Internet technology, fintech, blockchain, finance, and biotechnology-related venture companies. The Crypto-asset Business segment provides crypto-asset exchange and trading services. Its Next Gen Business engages in development and distribution of pharmaceutical products, health foods, and cosmetics with 5-aminolevulinic acid; business working on advanced fields related to Web 3, renewable energy business, human resources-related business, and media-related business. The company was formerly known as Softbank Investment Corporation and changed its name to SBI Holdings, Inc. in July 2005. SBI Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.

Stock analysis

SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF) currently trades at $20.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.97, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at high.

Scenario range: $11.23 (bear) to $18.71 (bull), the price of $20.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

SBI Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥1.9T in FY2026 versus ¥764B in FY2022, a compound +25.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥430B in FY2026, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $11.5B · P/E ratio 5.4 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $3.87 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 20.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −28%, SBHGF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.23 Fair Value $14.97 Bull $18.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple $1,781 $2,375 $2,969 55
NCAV (Graham) $1,397 $1,872 $2,794 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple $1,781 $2,375 $2,969 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1,397 $1,872 $2,794 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
29.9% (2021) → 27.2% (2026)

SBHGF screens 39% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 57 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −27.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 20.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 22.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 28.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.17× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.00× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 56
PAST (return on equity)82 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)67 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Freedom Holding FRHC $172.08 $23.80 −86%
Voya Financial, Inc VOYA $97.27 $46.47 −52%
Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 ¥7.26 ¥5.63 −22%
First Capital Securities Co 002797 ¥6.36 ¥5.18 −19%

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SBI Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$14.97 −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SBI Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SBHGF

Frequently asked questions

Is SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.97 versus a price of $20.75, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SBHGF?
Our model-based fair value for SBI Holdings Inc is $14.97 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.75.
What is the quality score of SBHGF?
SBI Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.97 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.23, optimistic scenario $18.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SBI Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.97, about −28% upside versus a price of $20.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.23, optimistic scenario $18.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
SBI Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
Does SBI Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
SBI Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 25, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SBI Holdings Inc it is $14.97 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of $20.75. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SBI Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, SBHGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.75, fair value $14.97, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBHGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.97). For SBI Holdings Inc the two are $5.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SBI Holdings Inc worth?
The market values SBI Holdings Inc at about $11.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is $20.75; our models calculate a fair value of $14.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBHGF?
Our models span a range for SBI Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $11.23, base $14.97, optimistic $18.71 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price $20.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBHGF?
SBI Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.4 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SBI Holdings Inc (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 20.6%, debt of 3.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBHGF from its 52-week high?
SBI Holdings Inc trades at $20.75, about 56% below its 52-week high of $47.37 and 28% above the low of $16.16 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SBI Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, China Galaxy Securities Co, Guosen Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SBI Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price $20.75, calculated fair value $14.97 (−28%), Quality Score 54/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBHGF calculated?
We run SBI Holdings Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. SBI Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $20.75. Our model-based fair value is $14.97, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SBI Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF) come from?
Earnings per share at SBI Holdings Inc grew +23.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.2 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of SBI Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The market capitalisation of SBI Holdings Inc is $11.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SBI Holdings Inc is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
Earnings per share at SBI Holdings Inc are $3.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The dividend yield of SBI Holdings Inc is 3.4% (payout 18.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The net margin of SBI Holdings Inc is 22.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SBI Holdings Inc is 20.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SBI Holdings Inc is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
The operating margin of SBI Holdings Inc is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
Revenue at SBI Holdings Inc is growing −5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF)?
Earnings per share at SBI Holdings Inc are growing +21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF) generate?
The free cash flow of SBI Holdings Inc is ¥1.5T (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does SBI Holdings Inc (SBHGF) carry?
The net debt of SBI Holdings Inc is ¥613B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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