SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of SunCar Technology Group Inc. $1.51, price $0.50, upside +200.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4463 – $43.31 · fair‑value band $0.9884 – $2.17 · the $0.5016 price screens below the $1.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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SunCar Technology Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides cloud and mobile app-based auto eInsurance, technology, and auto services in the People's Republic of China. It offers one-stop, fully digitalized, and on-demand auto service systems.
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SunCar Technology Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides cloud and mobile app-based auto eInsurance, technology, and auto services in the People's Republic of China. It offers one-stop, fully digitalized, and on-demand auto service systems. The company also provides customized service solutions to banks, insurance companies, telecommunication companies, and others. In addition, it offers car wash, oil change, tire repair, car beautification, road assistance, flight pickup, designated driving, VIP lounge, etc. in collaboration with third-party auto service providers. Further, the company facilitates the sale of auto e-Insurance products underwritten by insurance companies through a network of external sales partners; provides technical software and consultation related to auto eInsurance, and auto services; and provides its services through online software. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA) currently trades at $0.5016, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.51, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.37 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $0.5016 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2100, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.9884 (bear) to $2.17 (bull), the price of $0.5016 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SunCar Technology Group Inc. reported revenue of $489M in FY2025 versus $249M in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $79.6M · P/S ratio 0.15 · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) $518M · Revenue growth (YoY) +27.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 200%, SDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9884Fair Value $1.51Bull $2.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.3% (2020) → 0.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price.
Compare SunCar Technology Group Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SunCar Technology Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SDA
Frequently asked questions
Is SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.51 versus a price of $0.5016, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SDA?
Our model-based fair value for SunCar Technology Group Inc. is $1.51 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5016.
What is the quality score of SDA?
SunCar Technology Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.51 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9884, optimistic scenario $2.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SunCar Technology Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.51, about +200% upside versus a price of $0.5016 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.9884, optimistic scenario $2.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
SunCar Technology Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $518M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SunCar Technology Group Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SDA use?
Our models discount SunCar Technology Group Inc. at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SunCar Technology Group Inc. that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SunCar Technology Group Inc. grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SunCar Technology Group Inc. (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.98 %: that much free cash flow SunCar Technology Group Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SunCar Technology Group Inc. it is $1.51 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $0.5016. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SunCar Technology Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SDA trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5016, fair value $1.51, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5016); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.51). For SunCar Technology Group Inc. the two are $1.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SunCar Technology Group Inc. worth?
The market values SunCar Technology Group Inc. at about $79.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $0.5016; our models calculate a fair value of $1.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SDA?
Our models span a range for SunCar Technology Group Inc.: cautious scenario $0.9884, base $1.51, optimistic $2.17 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $0.5016). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for SunCar Technology Group Inc. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 3.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SDA from its 52-week high?
SunCar Technology Group Inc. trades at $0.5016, about 80% below its 52-week high of $2.48 and 12% above the low of $0.4463 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SunCar Technology Group Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SunCar Technology Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $0.5016, calculated fair value $1.51 (+200%), Quality Score 40/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SDA calculated?
We run SunCar Technology Group Inc. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. SunCar Technology Group Inc. currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $0.5016. Our model-based fair value is $1.51, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SunCar Technology Group Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.9884). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.9884 to $2.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SunCar Technology Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The market capitalisation of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is $79.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The net margin of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
The operating margin of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA)?
Revenue at SunCar Technology Group Inc. is growing +27.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does SunCar Technology Group Inc. (SDA) carry?
The net debt of SunCar Technology Group Inc. is $59.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 28, 2026