SunCar Technology Group (SDA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $79.6M
SunCar Technology Group
SDA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $1.27 to $0.7300 (−42.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Our model range runs from $0.5400 (bear) to $0.7300 (bull), base $0.7300. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 40/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5260 – $43.31 · fair‑value band $0.5400 – $0.7300 · the $0.8500 price screens above the $0.7300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
SunCar Technology Group (SDA) currently trades at $0.8500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7300, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, SunCar Technology Group generated revenue of $518M at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue grew 27.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at $59.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.5400 (bear case) to $0.7300 (bull case); at $0.8500, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -14%, SDA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($0.9700) versus Asset-Based ($0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SunCar Technology Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides cloud and mobile app-based auto eInsurance, technology, and auto services in the People's Republic of China. It offers one-stop, fully digitalized, and on-demand auto service systems.
Full company description
SunCar Technology Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides cloud and mobile app-based auto eInsurance, technology, and auto services in the People's Republic of China. It offers one-stop, fully digitalized, and on-demand auto service systems. The company also provides customized service solutions to banks, insurance companies, telecommunication companies, and others. In addition, it offers car wash, oil change, tire repair, car beautification, road assistance, flight pickup, designated driving, VIP lounge, etc. in collaboration with third-party auto service providers. Further, the company facilitates the sale of auto e-Insurance products underwritten by insurance companies through a network of external sales partners; provides technical software and consultation related to auto eInsurance, and auto services; and provides its services through online software. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SunCar Technology Group reported revenue of $489M in FY2025 versus $249M in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.9M in FY2025.
SDA screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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