Valvoline Inc (VVV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.9B
Valvoline Inc
VVV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −6.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($31.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.40 to $31.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.96 – $47.60 · fair‑value band $14.40 – $31.95 · the $35.34 price screens above the $24.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Valvoline Inc (VVV) currently trades at $35.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.57, implying the stock looks roughly 30.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Valvoline Inc generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 5.0%. Revenue grew 25.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.8%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.40 (bear case) to $31.95 (bull case); at $35.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -30%, VVV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($24.57) versus Asset-Based ($1.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services. It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations.
Full company description
Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services. It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Valvoline Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $211M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
VVV screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Valvoline (VVV) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
- Valvoline Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Valvoline Inc (VVV) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Same-Store Sales Growth and ...
- Valvoline (VVV) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
| Asbury Automotive Group ABG | $211.97 | $449.22 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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