Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $115M

Below-average quality, screening 103% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.83). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• A fairly wide model range ($14.83 to $35.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

31‑month range $10.84 – $38.69 · fair‑value band $14.83 – $35.23 · the $13.88 price screens below the $28.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) currently trades at $13.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.19, implying the stock looks roughly 103.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Smith Douglas Homes Corp generated revenue of $953M at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at $33.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $14.83 (bear case) to $35.23 (bull case); at $13.88, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 103%, SDHC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($37.65) versus Asset-Based ($6.96). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is headquartered in Woodstock, Georgia, Smith Douglas Homes completed its initial public offering in January 2024. Since its inception, Smith Douglas has been entrusted by over 20,000 families to fulfill their new home dreams.

Full company description

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is headquartered in Woodstock, Georgia, Smith Douglas Homes completed its initial public offering in January 2024. Since its inception, Smith Douglas has been entrusted by over 20,000 families to fulfill their new home dreams. Ranked a top 50 builder nationally for several years and with 2,908 closings in 2025, Smith Douglas currently holds the #32 position on the Builder Magazine Top 100 list. The Smith Douglas communities are primarily targeted to entry-level and empty-nest homebuyers looking to purchase a new home priced below the Federal Housing Administration loan limit in the metro areas of Atlanta, Birmingham, Central Georgia, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Dallas-Fort Worth, Greenville, Houston, Huntsville, Nashville, Raleigh, and the Alabama Gulf Coast. Smith Douglas offers its homebuyers a personalized, affordable buying experience at attractive prices, delivering exceptional value and quality. Smith Douglas Homes Corp. was incorporated in Delaware, USA.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Smith Douglas Homes Corp reported revenue of $971M in FY2025 versus $519M in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was $10.7M in FY2025, compounding −35.7%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.