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Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. $21.18, price $10.32, upside +105.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · US · ISIN US83207R1077

SD Smith Douglas Homes Corp. logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Smith Douglas Homes Corp.

SDHC · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $21.18 · Strongly undervalued (+105%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +8.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$38.69 $9.89 Fair Value $21.18 Jan 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

32‑month range $9.89 – $38.69 · fair‑value band $8.71 – $27.53 · the $10.32 price screens below the $21.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is headquartered in Woodstock, Georgia, Smith Douglas Homes completed its initial public offering in January 2024. Since its inception, Smith Douglas has been entrusted by over 20,000 families to fulfill their new home dreams.

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Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is headquartered in Woodstock, Georgia, Smith Douglas Homes completed its initial public offering in January 2024. Since its inception, Smith Douglas has been entrusted by over 20,000 families to fulfill their new home dreams. Ranked a top 50 builder nationally for several years and with 2,908 closings in 2025, Smith Douglas currently holds the #32 position on the Builder Magazine Top 100 list. The Smith Douglas communities are primarily targeted to entry-level and empty-nest homebuyers looking to purchase a new home priced below the Federal Housing Administration loan limit in the metro areas of Atlanta, Birmingham, Central Georgia, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Dallas-Fort Worth, Greenville, Houston, Huntsville, Nashville, Raleigh, and the Alabama Gulf Coast. Smith Douglas offers its homebuyers a personalized, affordable buying experience at attractive prices, delivering exceptional value and quality. Smith Douglas Homes Corp. was incorporated in Delaware, USA.

Stock analysis

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) currently trades at $10.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.18, implying the stock looks roughly 51.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $37.65 per share, and 15 of the 17 models we run sit above the $10.32 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.96, and 2 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $8.71 (bear) to $27.53 (bull), the price of $10.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. reported revenue of $971M in FY2025 versus $519M in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was $10.7M in FY2025, compounding −35.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $115M · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.9500 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 33.0% · Operating margin 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 105%, SDHC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.71 Fair Value $21.18 Bull $27.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6949 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $52.00 $58.69 $64.12 74
Residual Income $8.84 $9.79 $12.25 73
Owner Earnings $7.26 $12.37 $19.12 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $7.26 $12.37 $19.12 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $8.71 $32.27 $43.60 61
Lynch FV $7.74 $11.06 $14.37 58
PEG = 1.0 $7.74 $11.06 $14.37 55
EPV $52.00 $58.69 $64.12 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $23.70 $39.70 $51.52 65
DDM Multi-Stage $23.70 $37.65 $42.71 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.14 $28.19 $35.23 63
P/S Multiple $16.33 $21.78 $27.22 58
P/B Multiple $16.33 $21.78 $27.22 55
EV/EBIT $113.32 $152.35 $191.38 66
EV/EBITDA $77.05 $103.98 $130.91 67
EV/Revenue $75.17 $108.99 $142.81 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.19 $6.96 $10.39 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.84 $9.79 $12.25 73
ROIC Compounder $54.90 $65.15 $75.48 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $14.83 $21.18 $27.53 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 69
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 8%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Below median
Fair Value upside +105% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 24.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.32× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.5× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)51 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)75 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 56

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$109.10 HK$147.78 +35%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.62 HK$74.05 +150%
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 68,200 VND 112,796 VND +65%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$46.44 HK$71.69 +54%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.74 $1.52 −83%
DLF Limited DLF ₹675.00 ₹167.21 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.43 HK$22.35 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,163 ₹275.95 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.64 ¥14.10 +150%
CTP N.V CTPNV €13.58 €10.30 −24%

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Smith Douglas Homes Corp. · Fair Value
$21.18 +51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smith Douglas Homes Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SDHC

Frequently asked questions

Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.18 versus a price of $10.32, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SDHC?
Our model-based fair value for Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is $21.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.32.
What is the quality score of SDHC?
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.71, optimistic scenario $27.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smith Douglas Homes Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.18, about +105% upside versus a price of $10.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.71, optimistic scenario $27.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $953M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smith Douglas Homes Corp. it is $21.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.32. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SDHC trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.32, fair value $21.18, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SDHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.18). For Smith Douglas Homes Corp. the two are $10.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. worth?
The market values Smith Douglas Homes Corp. at about $115M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.32; our models calculate a fair value of $21.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SDHC?
Our models span a range for Smith Douglas Homes Corp.: cautious scenario $8.71, base $21.18, optimistic $27.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SDHC?
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SDHC from its 52-week high?
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. trades at $10.32, about 53% below its 52-week high of $22.16 and 4% above the low of $9.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smith Douglas Homes Corp.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smith Douglas Homes Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.32, calculated fair value $21.18 (+105%), Quality Score 40/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SDHC calculated?
We run Smith Douglas Homes Corp. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Smith Douglas Homes Corp. currently trades 105 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.32. Our model-based fair value is $21.18, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smith Douglas Homes Corp. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($8.71 to $27.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Smith Douglas Homes Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
The market capitalisation of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is $115M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is 0.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Earnings per share at Smith Douglas Homes Corp. are $0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
The net margin of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is 33.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
The operating margin of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Revenue at Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)?
Earnings per share at Smith Douglas Homes Corp. are growing −79.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) generate?
The free cash flow of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is −$36.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) carry?
The net debt of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is $33.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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