Smart Eye AB (SEYE) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · SE · Market cap 3.3B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from kr 100.46 to kr 22.14 (−78.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 33.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 16.52 to kr 33.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 30.63 – kr 230.67 · fair‑value band kr 16.52 – kr 33.04 · the kr 88.95 price screens above the kr 22.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Smart Eye AB (SEYE) currently trades at kr 88.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 22.14, implying the stock looks roughly 75.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Smart Eye AB generated revenue of 440M SEK at a net margin of -31.9%. Revenue grew 40.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.9%. Net debt stands at 173M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 16.52 (bear case) to kr 33.04 (bull case); at kr 88.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -75%, SEYE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Smart Eye AB (publ) develops human insight artificial intelligence (AI) technology solutions that understand, support, and predict human behavior in the Nordics countries, the rest of Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
Smart Eye AB (publ) develops human insight artificial intelligence (AI) technology solutions that understand, support, and predict human behavior in the Nordics countries, the rest of Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. The company provides driver monitoring systems and interior sensing solutions for automotive market; and AIS, an end-to-end driver monitoring hardware and software system for fleet and aftermarket. It offers various behavioral research products, including smart eye research instruments under the Smart Eye Pro, AI-X, XO, and Aurora names, as well as offers smart recorders, software, and analysis services to automotive, aviation and aerospace, media and marketing, psychology and neuroscience, and behavioral research industries. In addition, the company offers media analytics platform comprising emotion AI for video testing, a cloud-based service used for analyzing images and videos of humans expressing emotion to support qualitative research, and software development kits that enable developers to incorporate emotion sensing to their apps and digital experiences; and iMotions, a human insights software to collect and analyze human behavior data through eye tracking, galvanic skin response, facial expression analysis, EEG, EMG, and ECG on one convenient platform. Smart Eye AB (publ) was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smart Eye AB reported revenue of kr 404M in FY2025 versus kr 110M in FY2021, a compound +38.5%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 173M in FY2025.
SEYE screens 75% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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