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STS Group (SF3) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €18.4M

SG STS Group SF3 · XETRA
Price€2.94
Fair Value€2.71
Upside-7.9%
Quality53/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range €2.17 – €3.46 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €2.72 to €2.71 (−0.6%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.2% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from €2.17 (bear) to €3.46 (bull), base €2.71. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€8.91 €1.88 Fair Value €2.71 Jan 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.88 – €8.91 · fair‑value band €2.17 – €3.46 · the €2.94 price screens above the €2.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

STS Group (SF3) currently trades at €2.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.71, implying the stock looks roughly 7.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, STS Group generated revenue of €297M at a net margin of -0.2%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.1%. Net debt stands at €14.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.17 (bear case) to €3.46 (bull case); at €2.94, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -8%, SF3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €45.91 €56.83 €68.91 80
Rev-Margin DCF €29.25 €36.30 €44.22 74
ROIC Compounder €13.39 €14.58 €15.64 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €45.45 €57.56 €71.54 38
Owner Earnings €20.16 €24.70 €29.95 31
5Y Revenue Exit €29.25 €35.39 €42.39 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €40.10 €54.65 €70.57 41
10Y Revenue Exit €36.13 €42.52 €49.57 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €42.18 €53.63 €67.07 37
Earnings-Based
EPV €13.23 €14.23 €15.03 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.3200 €0.4800 €0.6200 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.3200 €0.4400 €0.5400 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT €22.33 €28.12 €33.91 53
EV/EBITDA €40.26 €52.03 €63.80 54
EV/Revenue €16.67 €21.69 €26.71 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.33 €4.46 €6.65 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €45.91 €56.83 €68.91 80
Rev-Margin DCF €29.25 €36.30 €44.22 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder €13.39 €14.58 €15.64 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€42.52) versus Dividend Discount (€0.4400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €297M
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.0%
Net margin -0.2%
Return on equity -1.1%
Free cash flow €33.3M FY2025
Operating margin 2.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-0.0900
EPS growth (YoY) +93.5%
Net debt €14.4M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

STS Group AG supplies components and systems for the commercial vehicle and automotive industry in Germany, France, Mexico, the United States, and China. The company operates through three segments: Plastics, China, and Materials.

Full company description

STS Group AG supplies components and systems for the commercial vehicle and automotive industry in Germany, France, Mexico, the United States, and China. The company operates through three segments: Plastics, China, and Materials. It manufactures and sells interior systems and components, such as storage modules, including under bunk storage and upper shelf; exterior components comprising cab side modules, tailgates, rear lamp modules, and roof spoilers; and covers of battery system for electric vehicles for trucks, commercial vehicles, and passenger cars. The company also offers plastic parts for the exterior paneling of vehicles, such as bumpers, front panels, deflectors, roofs, mudguards, and entrances; and develops and produces sheet molding compounds, fiber molding compounds, and advanced fiber molding compounds. In addition, it provides prototyping and logistics services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Hagen, Germany. STS Group AG operates as a subsidiary of Adler Pelzer Holding GmbH.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

STS Group reported revenue of €292M in FY2025 versus €242M in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€500K in FY2025.

Growth Quality 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€292M
Latest YoY
−6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.1%
Revenue +4.8%/yr
FY21 €242M
FY22 €235M
FY23 €278M
FY24 €311M
FY25 €292M
Net income
FY21 €1.8M
FY22 −€9.9M
FY23 −€1.2M
FY24 −€600K
FY25 −€500K

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "STS Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SF3

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 641 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.50× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 23 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 24
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 96 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is STS Group (SF3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.71 versus a price of €2.94, about −8% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SF3?
Our model-based fair value for STS Group is €2.71 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €2.94.
What is the quality score of SF3?
STS Group has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of STS Group (SF3)?
STS Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €297M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SF3?
The net profit margin of STS Group is about -0.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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