Sphera Franchise Group (SFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · RO · Market cap 1.4B RON
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (36.45 RON). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.87 RON – 39.69 RON · fair‑value band 21.87 RON – 36.45 RON · the 37.80 RON price screens above the 29.16 RON fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Sphera Franchise Group (SFG) currently trades at 37.80 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.16 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 22.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Sphera Franchise Group generated revenue of 1.6B RON at a net margin of 3.4%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 37.6%. Net debt stands at 110M RON. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 21.87 RON (bear case) to 36.45 RON (bull case); at 37.80 RON, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -23%, SFG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (40.97 RON) versus Asset-Based (2.19 RON). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sphera Franchise Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates quick service and takeaway restaurants. The company operates in three segments, Quick-Service Restaurants; Full-Service Restaurants; and Artisanal desert and cafes. It operates restaurants under the Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) brand in Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Italy.
Full company description
Sphera Franchise Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates quick service and takeaway restaurants. The company operates in three segments, Quick-Service Restaurants; Full-Service Restaurants; and Artisanal desert and cafes. It operates restaurants under the Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) brand in Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Italy. The company also operates a chain of pizza restaurants under the Pizza Hut (PH) brand name, as well as a chain of restaurants under the Taco Bell brand in Romania. The company also provides gelato, chocolate-based products, gourmet coffee, and Italian pastries under the Cioccolatitaliani brand name. Sphera Franchise Group S.A. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Bucharest, Romania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sphera Franchise Group reported revenue of 1.6B RON in FY2025 versus 1.0B RON in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 56.3M RON in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021.
SFG screens 23% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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