Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security RON 32.08, price RON 30.50, upside +5.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.87 RON – 48.10 RON · fair‑value band 24.06 RON – 40.10 RON · the 30.50 RON price screens below the 32.08 RON fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Sphera Franchise Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates quick service and takeaway restaurants. The company operates in three segments, Quick-Service Restaurants; Full-Service Restaurants; and Artisanal desert and cafes. It operates restaurants under the Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) brand in Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Italy.
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Sphera Franchise Group S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates quick service and takeaway restaurants. The company operates in three segments, Quick-Service Restaurants; Full-Service Restaurants; and Artisanal desert and cafes. It operates restaurants under the Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) brand in Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Italy. The company also operates a chain of pizza restaurants under the Pizza Hut (PH) brand name, as well as a chain of restaurants under the Taco Bell brand in Romania. The company also provides gelato, chocolate-based products, gourmet coffee, and Italian pastries under the Cioccolatitaliani brand name. Sphera Franchise Group S.A. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Bucharest, Romania.
Stock analysis
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG) currently trades at 30.50 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32.08 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 4.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 44.35 RON per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the 30.50 RON price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 8.78 RON, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 24.06 RON (bear) to 40.10 RON (bull), the price of 30.50 RON sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security reported revenue of 1.6B RON in FY2025 versus 1.0B RON in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 56.3M RON in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 1.4B RON (≈ $312M) · P/E ratio 21.6 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) 1.41 RON · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 37.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 5%, SFG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 24.06 RONFair Value 32.08 RONBull 40.10 RON
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+32.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Romania: IMF forecast 4.3% a year to 2030, 5.2% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 225 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.84× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SFG
Frequently asked questions
Is Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32.08 RON versus a price of 30.50 RON, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SFG?
Our model-based fair value for Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 32.08 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 30.50 RON.
What is the quality score of SFG?
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 32.08 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 24.06 RON, optimistic scenario 40.10 RON. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 32.08 RON, about +5% upside versus a price of 30.50 RON (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 24.06 RON, optimistic scenario 40.10 RON. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B RON (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security pay a dividend?
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security would have to grow free cash flow by +2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFG use?
Our models discount Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Romania. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security that is +2.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies +2.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (+2.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.89 %: that much free cash flow Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security it is 32.08 RON per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 30.50 RON. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SFG trades below its calculated fair value: price 30.50 RON, fair value 32.08 RON, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (30.50 RON); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (32.08 RON). For Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security the two are 1.58 RON per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security worth?
The market values Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security at about 1.4B RON (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 30.50 RON; our models calculate a fair value of 32.08 RON per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFG?
Our models span a range for Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security: cautious scenario 24.06 RON, base 32.08 RON, optimistic 40.10 RON per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 30.50 RON). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFG?
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 32.08 RON is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 37.6%, debt of 0.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFG from its 52-week high?
Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security trades at 30.50 RON, about 37% below its 52-week high of 48.10 RON and at the low of 30.50 RON (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 32.08 RON is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 30.50 RON, calculated fair value 32.08 RON (+5%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFG calculated?
We run Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 32.08 RON, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 30.50 RON. Our model-based fair value is 32.08 RON, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security
How large is the market capitalisation of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The market capitalisation of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 1.4B RON (≈ $312M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Earnings per share at Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security are 1.41 RON (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The dividend yield of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 6.9% (payout 149%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The net margin of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 37.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
The operating margin of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Revenue at Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG)?
Earnings per share at Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security are growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security (SFG) carry?
The net debt of Sphera Franchise Group SA MiFID Eligible Security is 110M RON (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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