Sims Ltd (SGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sims Ltd stock A$19.10, price A$19.26, upside -0.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$9.32 – A$29.74 · fair‑value band A$11.74 – A$24.83 · the A$19.26 price screens above the A$19.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Sims Limited engages in buying, processing, and selling of ferrous and non-ferrous recycled metals in Australia, China, India, Thailand, Turkey, the United States, and internationally.
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The company operates through five segments: North America Metal, Australia/New Zealand Metal, Investment in SA Recycling, Sims Lifecycle Services, and Global Trading Operations.
It is also involved in the collection, processing, and trading of secondary raw material from iron and steel; and other metal alloys and residues, principally aluminum, lead, copper, zinc, and nickel bearing materials.
The company also engages in the provision of environmental and data security services for the refurbishment, resale or commodity reclamation of IT assets recycled for commercial and post consumer suppliers.
In addition, it provides secondary processing and other services comprising stevedoring and other sources of service. Sims Limited was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.
Stock analysis
Sims Ltd (SGM) currently trades at A$19.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$19.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$21.58 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$19.26 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$3.55, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$11.74 (bear) to A$24.83 (bull), the price of A$19.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sims Ltd reported revenue of A$8.0B in FY2026 versus A$9.3B in FY2022, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$245M in FY2026, compounding −20.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$3.8B (≈ $2.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 16.1 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) A$1.20 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −1%, SGM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$11.74Fair Value A$19.10BullA$24.83
Price A$19.26 · Upside -0.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2757 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.4% vs 5.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (70 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business gains from electronics recycling and data center decommissioning tied to AI infrastructure demand yet shows only weak durable advantage in the cyclical steel sector amid net losses and negative returns.
Main risk: Continued exposure to commodity swings in the core metal trading operation would hit margins and earnings stability.
Sims Lifecycle Services has driven much of the recent earnings surge through electronics recycling and data center decommissioning. This positions the business for demand tied to AI infrastructure while the core metal trading operation stays exposed to commodity swings. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the shift toward steadier, higher-margin services more than offset the integration risks and cyclicality in scrap markets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 401 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−1.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sims Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGM.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is Sims Ltd (SGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$19.10 versus a price of A$19.26, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SGM?
Our model-based fair value for Sims Ltd is A$19.10 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$19.26.
What is the quality score of SGM?
Sims Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$19.10 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$11.74, optimistic scenario A$24.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sims Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$19.10, about −1% upside versus a price of A$19.26 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$11.74, optimistic scenario A$24.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Sims Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$8.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Sims Ltd pay a dividend?
Sims Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sims Ltd (SGM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sims Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGM use?
Our models discount Sims Ltd at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.19, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sims Ltd that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sims Ltd (SGM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sims Ltd grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sims Ltd (SGM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sims Ltd (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.85 %: that much free cash flow Sims Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sims Ltd it is A$19.10 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of A$19.26. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sims Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, SGM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$19.26, fair value A$19.10, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$19.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$19.10). For Sims Ltd the two are A$0.1600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sims Ltd worth?
The market values Sims Ltd at about A$3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is A$19.26; our models calculate a fair value of A$19.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGM?
Our models span a range for Sims Ltd: cautious scenario A$11.74, base A$19.10, optimistic A$24.83 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price A$19.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGM?
Sims Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$19.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of SGM?
The PEG ratio of Sims Ltd is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 25, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sims Ltd (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGM from its 52-week high?
Sims Ltd trades at A$19.26, about 35% below its 52-week high of A$29.74 and 35% above the low of A$14.26 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$19.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sims Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sims Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price A$19.26, calculated fair value A$19.10 (−1%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGM calculated?
We run Sims Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$19.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Sims Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was A$19.26. Our model-based fair value is A$19.10, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sims Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$11.74 to A$24.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sims Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The market capitalisation of Sims Ltd is A$3.8B (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sims Ltd is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Earnings per share at Sims Ltd are A$1.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The dividend yield of Sims Ltd is 1.8% (payout 28.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The net margin of Sims Ltd is 3.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sims Ltd is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sims Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sims Ltd (SGM)?
The operating margin of Sims Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Revenue at Sims Ltd is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sims Ltd (SGM)?
Earnings per share at Sims Ltd are growing −85.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sims Ltd (SGM) carry?
The net debt of Sims Ltd is A$649M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026